Pelosi Vs China

i'm ready for nuclear war

I posted what is italicized below my comments on this thread, on the "What's your hottest take?" thread a couple weeks ago, and responded to some replies with more details if you want to check that out. I argue that China will invade Taiwan before the end of 2024, although I am slightly tempted to shorten my time horizon.

To your questions:

1. "Why doesn't China liberate Taiwan and let it be its own country; they don't need Taiwan for their economy."

Answer: There is way too much Chinese/Taiwanese/Japanese/American history to unpack here. To cut to the chase, there is no way in hell CCP will allow Taiwan (which they claim is really Chinese territory) to exist as an independent democracy. Xi is absolutely clear on this, and there is no bluffing. CCP will invade and it's only a matter of time. This isn't primarily an economic matter for China, rather an ideological one rooted in Xi's admiration for CCP ideology (i.e., essentially communism, he is a big time admirer of Stalin/Mao).

Although it should definitely be noted that Taiwan is also a technologically advanced country, which ranks top 10/20 in economic freedom scores. Control/Disruption/IP theft/disruption of/over TSMC, which produces something like 50% of microchips in the world (over 90% for advanced microchips), which is undeniably of giant import for the world economy and if suddenly halted would deeply hurt the global economy. This isn't news though, people understand that Taiwan controlled by China has deep economic ramifications because of this one issue. 

2. "Why doesn't US mind its own business and let them sort out their own issues unless this is just a catalyst for the US China tensions which have been going on for like the last 5 years?" 

Answer: I won't comment on whether the US should or shouldn't get involved because to me it's a fucked if you do fucked if you don't situation and I couldn't possibly give an answer. That said, If US doesn't get involved in defense of Taiwan, it sends a pretty clear signal that we do not have leverage over China in a significant way. The US gov't and its ally's are in an incredibly difficult situation... Do we want to live in a world where dictators get to invade and wreak havoc over autonomous democracy/freedom aspiring countries at will, without really having to pay a price (sanctions don't work, and they certainly won't work against china, it would result in just the same amount of economic pain on the US/West) (also, we are kind of testing this question right now with Russia/Ukraine, which I think will get much harder for the US to support Ukraine for economic reasons and will certainly get much harder for Europe (most specifically Germany) when the end of fall and winter rolls around.). If you answer no, we don't want to live in a world where China gets to invade at will, you then have to answer, what are the possible ramifications for an all-out war between China and the US, which is impossible to calculate and is terrifying once you do think through the possibilities. Obviously, nuclear war is one option, but forget about nuclear war, even if no nukes were dropped the consequences would still be catastrophic.. A significant amount of geopolitical stability in the world would vanish, a deep depression state for the global economy that isn't fathomable would be brought about, incredible migration and famine crisis' around the world would occur (because a war between China/US would become a world war). Essentially, do we go down that route? Biden administration over the last couple of days just flipped the tune to what Biden himself had said months earlier. The new position is that the US supports the one-china policy and does not support Taiwan independence. 

I really don't know how the US will respond to the Chinese invasion of Taiwan and I don't think the US gov't does either, or at least they aren't signaling to public that they do. But who knows, I certainly don't, I'm sure behind closed doors CIA and other important people we never hear/know about our non-stop constantly thinking about this (at least I would hope so), because again I think the US knows the invasion is inevitable and the reaction/non-reaction to the invasion is really the big question mark.

Prior post: 

 I don't think it's a hot take, not necessarily because of a high percentage probability of this occurring, but because its rather talked about a lot and not really an original take. I am also not crazy knowledgeable about the situation, but am informed by my reading and fascination with the history of Communism in China (as well as Russia).

Only "evidence" that exists is Xi Jinping's statements on the matter itself. Take this for example, from his July 2021 speech at the celebration of CCP's 100 year anniversary. "Resolving the Taiwan question and realizing China's complete reunification is a historic mission and an unshakable commitment of the Communist Party of China. It is also a shared aspiration of all the sons and daughters of the Chinese nation. We will uphold the one-China principle and the 1992 Consensus, and advance peaceful national reunification. All of us, compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Strait, must come together and move forward in unison. We must take resolute action to utterly defeat any attempt toward "Taiwan independence," and work together to create a bright future for national rejuvenation. No one should underestimate the resolve, the will, and the ability of the Chinese people to defend their national sovereignty and territorial integrity." Some argue that his use of peaceful national reunification, means war is not inevitable. I completely disagree. Xi and CCP do not prefer war, but are definitely prepare to go there if Taiwan will not submit, and they most certainly will not. 

Besides his remarks, increasing buildup of military activity in the south China sea is also a pretty worrisome sign. Moreover, I don't think people understand Xi's commitment to Communism. He is a true admirer and scholar of Stalin and Mao (this is terrifying). Taiwan is essentially a fully operating liberal democracy, which is the antithesis to where Xi and the CCP are headed. Xi also understand that he is operating on a timeline as well. Niall Ferguson makes this point I believe, maybe Matt Pottinger (not positive, don't quote me on this one), but if the US is serious about protecting global democracy we will take what we learned from Russia/Ukraine and begin arming Taiwan immediately. I think it was yesterday or today, that China got pissed and demanded we cancel our $100mm weapons/arms deal with Taiwan we just passed last week. So, it is to Xi's advantage to strike sooner than later, as the longer he takes, the more the US can strategize and actually arm Taiwan. Moreover, economic outlook does not look favorable for either country, in my view this will lead US to strongly consider not engaging in another war or at least hesitate, and, I also don't remember where I heard this but I thought it was a strong point (Ferguson or Pottinger probably, they are my go to on China/Russia)... China's growth will inevitably slow, and I think that's happening now, and this will lead Xi to base the legitimacy of the CCP on nationalism leading to the showdown of Taiwan. (I think you can find this argument in one of the hoover institute goodfellows podcasts, I think they had one based solely on China) 

Besides the arguments from others above that have persuaded me, I don't think we have enough leverage to deter China from invading. My personal view is that, taking into account what I said above, I believe China knows that if it were to invade Taiwan tomorrow, at this moment the US may hesitate and not be fully committed to an all out war. 

Militarily, arguments from both sides who think the war will and won't happen, seem to both agree that Taiwan will put up a fight but nothing compared to Ukraine. I don't have the expertise to speak on this, but something to consider.

The modern day way the US involves itself in warfare is through proxies. We see evidence of this in Ukraine, Saudia Arabia, and now Taiwan. US has already supported Taiwan twice against China (I think someone can fact check this) so it has a matter of precedence to do the same. China is Interested in controlling taiwan and bringing it back under control because it can’t afford to send a message that democracy has won. Remember the split between Taiwan and China was a difference in idealogies between democracy and communism. 
 

so I think US will clearly protect Taiwan as it has a vested interest (semi conductors economic activity, another access point to the South Pacific, and a way to buffer China). If China really wants Taiwan I think they will try to take militarily but it won’t be easy because Taiwan has a geographical advantage and it has the backing of the number one superpower in the world (US military spending is 700 bn per year) 

I've said it before and I'll say it again, US should honestly stop interfering with APAC affairs. It genuinely is a no-win situation for us and we have such a massive geographical buffer that at this point it's simply American imperialist ideology that even keeps us there. We should be incredibly active in the Americas in every way that makes sense for national security and maybe Western Europe due to cultural / economic integration but interference in the rest of the world is no longer tenable as our economic engine creaks

This is not the 1980s-1990s anymore where the U.S. is the undisputed global superpower & our economic engine is running cleanly. We simply don't have the willpower, resources, or relative strength to be everywhere all at once. Not to say there aren't benefits to that but the costs increasingly are outweighing the benefits. Pelosi going to Taiwan was incredibly stupid and unnecessarily provocative

Moreover, we would lose a non-nuclear war against China. This isn't my opinion, it's consensus view at the DoD. There's a great book written by a former senrior DoD official called The Kill Chain where he mentions it's an open secret in the military that the U.S. would be defeated in a war vs. China (assuming U.S. goes over to China to fight, not the other way around). Every simulation we run unanimously comes back saying that the U.S. faces a resounding defeat. Reasons are a) our military machine is outdated (large aircraft carriers were great in the 80s, less so now & much easier to sink), b) the Chinese military is purpose built from the ground up to defeat the U.S. military (more subs, smaller more nimble vessels, etc) & waaaay more manpower, and c) maintaining logistical supply lines would be an absolute nightmare. 

We need to focus more resources domestically frankly vs. wasting in abroad in situations that we are highly unlikely to win