From what I’ve gathered, BB status isn’t permanent — Lehman’s gone, Credit Suisse got absorbed, and Deutsche’s been clinging on by a thread. People toss around UBS or DB as banks that might not stay BBs much longer.
But what about the flip side? Can a non-BB actually become one? Curious what people think the BB list looks like in 10 years if things keep trending the way they are.
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Jefferies feels like the obvious bet. They’ve been grinding it out for 20+ years, and Rich has built something legit — I think they did $4B+ in IB revenue last year, and the SMBC partnership basically gave them a global lifeline. Not fully there yet, but if you squint hard enough, you could already argue they belong.
Wells Fargo is kinda the wildcard. Huge balance sheet, massive consumer banking arm, strong in debt markets — and IB has been quietly growing. If they ever get out from under the asset cap and keep adding senior bankers, they could be serious. That said... it’s still Wells. If anyone can fumble a layup, it’s probably them lol.
BB is a social construct. It means what senior leadership around the street wants it to mean. The term, when initially conceived, is about full-service global banks that were the top banks across regions. Imo, 6 banks are BBs by that definition: GS/MS/JPM/BOFA/BARC/CITI. UBS is the closest to joining them, but not quite strong enough in America (it's a fine franchise in America's but cannot really be viewed as a top franchise). WF/Jef/RBC are similar to UBS (though RBC is the clear weak link here) in the US, but far weaker than it is in the rest of the world. DB isn't really close to being a BB; it's been years since it's been t10 in Global M&A.
The next BB is going to be one off UBS/Jef/WF/RBC. Imo think it's most likely to be WF because of how much of a dominant bank it is, commercially, which means it can afford to invest so much more in the IB business, which they have already started aggressively doing. Next highest chances is for UBS, just needs to simply figure out America's business; if it gets to the top 10 for a year or two in M&A in the region, it's good enough in other regions to reclaim its status.
This must be how von Neumann felt when he learned that Godel beat him to the Second Incompleteness Theorem.
I was coming down to the comment section to provide the correct answer and here you are already making it.
Both matters are of equal significance as well
At some point it will just be Goldman Sachs and J.P Morgan, MS is focusing WM and AM more and more, although I am sure they will continue being on large cap deals. The future is EB's, they provide a superior service model that is usually much more aligned and conflict of interest free. The status of a bulge bracket is arbitrary but to me represents a full service bank that is globally equipped and works/is trusted with the largest clients. I understand this is a hot take but am willing to debate further below.
isnt GS doing the same as MS? or at least focusing on financing with their capital solutions overhaul(that also uses GSAM for private credit)
I think wells is a great future BB
UBS already lost it according to earlier poll on wso
Echo on Wells as a solid contender in the next 3-5 years. IB revenue performance has been great, if not better than RBC/DB if I remember correctly. The sentiment for wells has been that it’s “been” growing it’s IB arm for the last decade but I don’t think it’s a fair comparison to what it’s been doing over the past year or so. Solid hires in leadership, great culture relative to other banks, and already winning headline deals across the table. Did not mean to glaze WF like that but I think the future looks bright for them.
WF's pay and culture are indeed very enticing for talents. not only giving great benefits to seniors but also great benefits to juniors. The only con of the firm is sort of lacking prestige in the investment banking business. But I think as long as the firm keep doing great deals, rep can definitely be further improved
What “great deals” has WF done? People have been talking about WF being the next BB for 15+ years. I’ll believe it when I see it.
WF is a great firm. Lots of nice people. But let’s not pretend they are anywhere near being considered a legitimate BB bank.
Things can change quickly in this industry, but correct if WF continues on this trend they’re in great shape. The asset cap getting lifted would be a huge catalyst as well.
JEF is another contender - they take the opposite approach to WF (they glut the MDs and treat everyone else like garbage) but they’ve done a phenomenal job leaning into their lending/sponsor relationships and poaching good MDs to grow their business.
I always thought UBS was considered one of the BBs, along with DB. RBC no - and I can’t see them getting there.
Natixis?
Natixis?
Unbelievable that WF is mentioned here. Zero international presence or prestige to speak of.
Agreed, I have no clue where this influx of Wells Fargo “new BB” discourse is coming from. I suspect current and future employees are trying to remove the tarnish that Wells Fargo has rightfully garnered.
Tarnish? GS and JPM's actual ibanks did much worse than anything WF ever did, and the credit card nonsense had nothing to do with Wells Fargo Securities. Not sure why everyone else gets a hall pass.
I think most people in the thread are basing it on the U.S. M&A league table. Its global investment banking revenue is top10, above UBS/Jefferies/RBC/DB etc, although 80% of the Global Investment Banking Revenue likely come from the U.S.
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