There were a lot of layed off bankers at the junior level over the past year, many from great schools with great first year banking experience.
Even if banks go on a hiring frenzy again in the NTM period, will it be super competitive given all the layoffs recently?
In other words, how many of you are still looking for jobs, and are there lateral opportunities at the BBs and EBs that aren’t being formally posted?
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I've observed very low levels of attrition in my own team, and that seems to be true right across the street. Given that, and a new incoming pool of Grads in September, I can't see staffing needs being that high for at least 12 months, even if dealflow picks up meaningfully. As you point out, there are still a lot of talented juniors still on the market. And they'll be (a) cheap (they need a job), and (b) immediately available (no notice period)
So, I think (purely speculatively) that it'll take at least 12 months (assuming dealflow normalises) for hiring to pick up again. After that time, those currently on the market will find an IB role or try a new career path, and internal attrition will leave teams needing to bring on newcomers.
That said, if you're more senior and specialised, there'll always be specialised opportunities at BBs / EBs (e.g. by chance a specific team loses two top VPs / senior AS at once)
You think the laid off bankers will stay unemployed for a year? I feel like many will pivot to other industries much sooner.
Difficult question, but I think most will try for a minimum of 6 months, and there'll be some trying for longer. Plus, other industries don't have a huge amount to offer if they're tangetially linked to deals and banking. But I agree, 12 months will be a long time for some.
(By the way, I sure hope you're right - selfishly I would be glad to see the hiring market pick up sooner rather than later)
As someone currently in the market, I hope so too.
Layed
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