Please Help: An Analyst's Career Dilemma

I've been thinking about this:

Current team is kinda toxic with how VP loves to play politics, MD remote working all year round, not talking to others except VP who has some sort of family connection with the MD, and associate being an incompetent kiss-ass. Analysts are 50-50 in competency. 

Lifestyle group. Probably works 60 hours a week on average. Usually log off before 11pm. Live deal weeks hit 100 hours but that's not the norm.  

Salary is way below market and bonus won't be good this year. Might be a group thing. Like to remain anonymous here. 

However, team has recently finished 1 big deal that will generate a lot of fees. MD sourced this deal for the bank.

There is another big deal lined up. So by the end of next year, my group will likely have 2 closed deals under the belt with a supposedly big payday ahead of us.

Well, the actual bonus pay-out date will be in January or February, not December. 

MD, despite his vices, is "known" for being generous to his juniors. One of the analysts heard this from somewhere. I doubt the accuracy though because after I joined I have seen 1 VP and 1 Associate left. Both were nice and competent. Both left due to low pay. 

MD is also very careful not to say anything regarding the specific bonus number ("Will probably get you a bonus 2x your salary because hey we made a lot of money"). He told us things like "this year you will probably get 3 months of your salary" (mind you the base pay is looowww) and "next year, bonus will be very good."

"Sir. how much is that?"

"Don't worry about it. It will be good"

Why not tell us a ballpark? 

During our review, he told me he how everyone in the team loved working with me, and he is promoting me to Associate. So I definitely have the choice to go A2A. I'm not yet 2 years into the job.

However, two days ago, when I asked him when I'd sign the new contract, he asked what I'd do if I do not get promoted. 

That baffled me. 

Banking is not my long-term play. It never will be. I was lucky enough to talk to someone pretty high up in banking before I got in (school professor, not family connection. No I didn't go to an Ivy or Stanford). Someone was ~ global head of investment banking at a BB. 

I think my passion lies in building products and company operations. However, the thought of foregoing a big payday, and going for a job that pays significantly lower salary, also intimidates me a little.