Stressing over 2023 SA return rates due to economy

Getting a bit nervous with the economy slowly worsening...

I have a 2023 SA in CIB Credit, and I'm a little worried about getting a return offer.

The posts I've been reading on here are a bit conflicting. Some have said juniors shouldn't need to worry because layoffs would start at the top and likely not trickle down to junior analysts. I've also read that banks suffered from a shortage of workers from the layoffs after the recession cooled off from the late 2000s, and because of that, it is unlikely that would happen again. 

I'm just worried because ever since I received my internship offer, my gpa has tanked a bit due to health reasons and personal circumstances. And now the possibility of having to rerecruit for FT is giving me bad anxiety.

Just looking to get some insight from those who might have a better idea of what's to come, particularly in my situation. I'm still in college and obviously have very little experience with all this.

Thanks again

Comments (3)

Most Helpful
  • Analyst 1 in IB - Cov
Sep 25, 2022 - 10:58pm

I believe- and anyone feel free to correct me if I'm wrong- that laying off the junior-most/just arriving class of analysts is uncommon.. However, there's always a precedent to be set, as with anything. With things like this, it's hard to extrapolate conclusions from the past; the situation at hand is still rolling out and there's no foretelling what firms will do or what surprises may come. Reality is that all you should expect, without doubt, is that the firm will do what the firm does best- which is put the firm above all else. Totally not trying to fear monger you as I am in a similar position (newly joined 1st year @ BB) and viewing it this way as well. Speaking personally, I'm consciously negating the whatever safety net may have been implied for Y0s… I think it's better safe than sorry and honestly, Ive seen banks do egregious shit that proves if you are expendable, you will be treated as so if the situation calls for it (and without hesitation).
In terms of intern return rates, I think that would be representative with how closely your group ties macroeconomic conditions/hiring needs with return % of SAs. Some firms/groups are a little more privy towards slashing return rates based on prevailing hiring needs and many times (un)intentionally over hire SAs. Some firms/groups (primarily EBs) try to keep yield as close to 100%. It really depends.

I would advise on spending meaningful time between your studies really making sure you're prepping proactively and work your butt off during your SA, in any case. I agree that rhetoric on this Recession is honestly a bit frightening…but just like you cannot control for BBs "playing by the book" and shield the junior-most members, you cannot control for the economy. The only thing you can control for is your own performance and reputation

Sep 26, 2022 - 1:15pm
boii, what's your opinion? Comment below:

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