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Esoteric securities. In an age of machine-based-exchange, any somewhat liquid market will see dramatic reductions in opportunity for alpha. While people on these forums always harp that someone always will make money going long some non-concensus thesis, which is true, there are two ways to make money in public markets: a.) predict the future b.) provide liquidity. The first is way harder to do, and will get even harder as automation has visibly supressed volatility.

I think the idea going forward is to chase alpha in non flow, illiquid, non bid, non auction, sometimes even unsecuritized markets. Situations where you have to create the market and trade it simulateneously, and provide liquidity to some institution/people/nation that for some reason can't get it. In the age of esoterics, firms scour the globe for creative ways to create markets---of which there are hundreds of esoteric exchanges possible---to create alpha before others find out about the opportunity, and ruin the edge.

Karl Marx talks about how automation reduces the labor value for workers in the CMC cycle. Peculiarly, we are reaching the point where automation is reducing the capital value for the capitalists in the MCM cycle. The wise capitalist will always be creative to increasing their opportunty set in the everlasting competition of the auction-based market.

 

EM debt and derivatives. there are some very interesting things going on in the EM space. de-globalization and fencing off of trade blocs are creating a new environment that is novel and dependent upon niche expertise to evaluate and make good investments

 

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