2018 Midterm Election Prediction
I believe the Blue Wave is real. My prediction for the 2018 midterms is the following: Democrats win 30-35 House seats, and Senate will be super close with a variance of GOP losing 2 seats to winning 2 seats.
My reasons are as follows:
In the post-WWII era, a new President's party lost an average of 28 House seats in the first midterm election. Democrats need just 24 to win the House.
Despite a strong economy and no foreign wars, Trump's net approval rating is -10, and twice as many Americans strongly disapprove of him than strongly approve. These are the worst numbers for a post-WWII President at this point in his presidency. Midterm elections are now nationalized, and it will be a referendum on Trump.
There are a lot of vulnerable Republicans in moderate well-educated districts that Clinton won. Trump is toxic with college-educated suburban voters.
Although the RNC has more cash on hand than the DNC, the Democratic house and senate campaign committees have raised more money than their Republican counterparts. And 56 Democratic house challengers have raised more money than the Republican incumbents they are facing against. This fundraising gap is indicative of the enthusiasm gap, which heavily favors the Democrats.
Democratic primary turnout has dwarfed 2014 numbers and corroborates the enthusiasm gap between the two parties.
The generic ballot has the Democrats consistently leading by 7-8 points despite the tax cuts, a strong economy, and the party moving dramatically leftward on immigration and economic policy. This tells me that anger and fatigue over Trump and his handling of the Presidency is driving a lot of this gap, since polling shows that most Americans agree with the GOP on key issues such as immigration.
According to the Cook Political Report, the number of House races deemed "competitive" is the highest since 2010, when the GOP won 63 House seats.
The special elections are another interesting datapoint where dems have outperformed 2016 by 16%. Interested to know what you’re talking about with regards to immigration and economic policy polling since the polls I’m seeing say people generally support increased legal immigration, legal status for dreamers, and oppose child separation (only democratic immigration policy I can find that polls badly is abolishing ice), are generally unfavorable to the trump tax cuts, and about evenly split on single payer.
Anyway, the main reason I think Dems should win the house are the results in special elections where Reps did poorly for the most part. It's significantly more indicative than any poll that has been proven wrong before. However I think they won't win the Senate, meaning that the impeachment dreams end there.
Republicans are struggling with their own mediocrity and lack of thirst to win. Core values are fine, but individuals like Paul Ryan (who's gone fortunately), Romney, McCain (also gone) had created a party of losers, who had accepted the role of permanent opposition, leaving Democrats change the demographics of the US following the California model to create their dystopian, de-facto one-party system run by ideological extremists. This is why the sudden love of Dems of McCain and co., they were great because they were losers and they had accepted their definitive defeat. Trump rolled the dice, the ''demographic destiny'' is no longer a certainty and Dems are freaking out over that because that was the entirety of their electoral strategy, use minorities of all kinds as voting slaves in exchange for token representation.
That being said, without the toxicity of frontline candidates like Clinton, Dems might do fine enough. Republicans seem demotivated or lazy. The only thing they have going is a courting of black voters and while I'm not a fan of playing identity politics like Dems, an actually inclusive approach that's not based on tokenism but broadly American identity and values is well overdue for Reps and a reapproachmement with African-Americans is welcome. It might just work out.
Not gonna get into a debate about politics merits of particular policies or the motivations of parties since that shit is exhausting and no fun for anyone unless one of us is pseudo trolling, but would really appreciate it if you could link to the polls youre talking about as I did some searching and couldnt find the stuff you’re talking about (on sanctuary cities I found this: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/fact-c… which leads me to believe you may be mistaken but am open to being corrected). Would also appreciate it if you could consider the poll’s methodology (so some sort of demographic weighting, preferably not opt-ins and definitely not purely voluntary). Also, where possible, if you could find polls that reference actual policies and not just vague notions (e.g. “should parents of DACA recipients also receive some legal status” not “is illegal immigration bad”) that would be preferable. Happy to debate interpretations and validities of particular polls, and looking forward to seeing some interesting polls that slipped by because of some combination of my lack of googling skills and my confirmation bias.
I am going to take a wild guess that you making these same posts in 2016.
BUMP. Things continue to look bad for the GOP. The BLUE WAVE is real.
I agree, definitely time for a blue wave.
I'm just hoping the House doesn't try to impeach Trump. I really think the Dems should be more strategic about the whole thing. There's no point to impeachment unless they have enough Senate seats for conviction. Instead I'd rather them use their committee power to repeatedly humiliate Trump because that would cause more tweets, more off the rails comments, more Fox & Friends call ins, etc. Let him keep acting like a fool. Him being President could be the best thing for the Dems to ever happen.
I predict lots of arguments between TNA, VaTech (or whatever he goes by now), BobTheBaker, iBankedUp, and Esuric. gonna be great.
also idgaf. I'll vote by my district has been the same guy since I was born and I don't see that twat getting beat
OP, are you out of your mind?
I think Trump will absolutely clean up in November. The sickening display of identity politics and race baiting during the last year and a half has done nothing but turn off ordinary Americans to the whole anti-Trump/#Resist movement. They have focused on impeachment FFS, all while the economy roars upward. I mean, did you watch the Kavanaugh hearings yesterday? Trump has completely exposed the media and the lifetime politicians for what they are.. The populist movement that he led is just getting started. In the US and elsewhere.
In a sentence, why does the establishment hate Trump? Because he came out of nowhere and accomplished in 8 months what these empty suits spend their whole careers attempting to do.
It shocks me how such supposed intelligent people in media/govt/finance think so shallowly about this.. Sure, we all sit in our cushy investment banking office towers and don't care about the "real world", but just step back and think for a minute how the average blue-collar working man thinks about this all.
Or I'm completely wrong and this post will be fun to look at after a dem victory lmao.
The enemy of the American people party will take the house.
Good. Doesn’t change electoral math and Trump will roast the party of No. Go look at how much it helped Republicans being obstructionist.
God emperor forever.
Trump is so woefully unfit for office that it's actually surreal to observe.
In retrospective, America (and the world) should view his 2-4 years as some weird high-stakes social experiment.
With an ongoing investigation, it should not be too difficult for democrats to take control of the house and possibly the senate. It is very likely that more shoes will drop as result of the investigation, which will likely make it easier for democrats to take additional seats. The primary issue working in the republican's favor at the moment is the stock market. If the stock market falters, which would not be very surprising, it will be an interesting November.
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