All jobs will be gone in 50 years?
I've been reading too many futurology forum posts and everyone has the idea that in 2040-2060 most if not all mainstream jobs are going to be automated. Anything from finance to law to engineering to tech to medicine will be completely done by robots and humans need not apply.
The way they envision this future world is completely different. There would be universal income, employment would be optional with 90% of the population not holding a job, higher education no longer being necessary, everyone would have most of their day dedicated to free time and pursuing hobbies, many things becoming free (healthcare, education) and prices on everything would drop dramatically. Basically, the world will no longer be capitalist and instead lean heavily toward communism.
I don't feel like I would enjoy not having a job because after a few years it'll get really boring and repetitive. When I was younger, sometimes we'd get extended summer breaks (4-5 months) and these would get really boring nearing the end since you've already done everything you could do to entertain yourself then again, this was a long time ago so maybe I had fewer interests.
What do you guys think of this?
Reddit? Most primary subs become the epitome of an echo chamber regarding their respective subjects - Futurology included.
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I'm skeptical this will ever happen. I think technology will continue to make people more productive, and any job that requires any kind of creativity, or anything other than the same action/motion 100+x/day, will be hard to automate. I think it'll be a very long time before anything other than very low skilled jobs (like cashiers) are automated.
From 1870-2010, the % of people in the U.S. working in agriculture went from 50% to 2%. If in 1870 you told people that the % of people working in agriculture would go down by 96% in 150 years, they would've been freaked out. I think we'll be just fine when 96% of bank teller jobs, cashiers, etc. go away.
If we ever need UBI in a big way, I think mental issues/struggles will go up 100x. People need to work to feel productive. Imagine 200 million listless Americans just hanging out all day...morale/attitudes would be in the shitter.
I don't foresee a world in which humans will no longer be useful to each other, nor can I imagine humans losing interest in the social/financial benefits that would follow from being most useful to others. Our needs, by today's standards, might be largely provided by default. But we'd just raise the bar for what we "need."
You can’t predict how this will play out because you’re talking about a dramatic change to the dynamic of what it means to be human.
Kids are trained to wake up at a certain time, to have fears that might be otherwise unnecessary, to follow a schedule, and set plans according to a future of school, work, and earning a living.
When we gather for coffee, regular outings, entertainment, or to do one of the things that is being postulated as ending, we like to discuss these important parts of our lives whether on topic of our productivity or our social interactions.
I just wonder how a world will move and who we will become when work is no longer a factor, if we should ever get to that point. I suspect something will take its place and it might not be just regular play.
I know some of the forums you are referring to and I think the viewpoints expressed on them are extremely naive. These people fundamentally underestimate how much humans like to trade things with each other whether they are necessary or not. I agree that a lot of current jobs will be automated at some point in the near future, but this doesn’t mean people will shift into idleness. It’s much more likely that we’ll shift into exchanging a different set of goods and services we do now.
The topic may be thought-provoking and even scary to most of you, but fear not, these are all completely idealistic speculations with not even a sliver of truth, only good for intellectual masturbation.
The most important thing you should all be worrying about is achieving financial independence, the sooner the better, and most importantly, enjoying the journey.
why would you want a society where people are slaves? I'm always struck with why americans link their self worth and happiness with the occupations they have. like wtf? a truly rich life is independent on trivial concerns such as work--if you have to work really hard every day and sacrifice your peace of mind to achieve a basic sustenance of life, then something is seriously wrong with that society. ever work in European banking? they view work as a chore.
colleges are the slave factories for corporations. most people in america are viewed as a cashable commodities and their worth is partly calculated on how much money can be drained from that person for the duration they're alive. yes, even those in upper mid class or higher
Someone please explain to me why the unemployment rate is so low if technology / automation destroys jobs in aggregate. I’ll wait...
Hear Lael Brainard speak on your exact question:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/brainard20150602a.htm
"My judgment is that there is still room for employment and hours worked to grow further, as there are other labor market indicators that suggest slack not captured by the unemployment rate. For example, the labor force participation rate remains low relative to its declining pre-crisis trend, and the number of employees who are working less than they would like is still elevated relative to pre-crisis standards. Moreover, on balance, aggregate measures of wage growth remain soft and have not significantly strengthened in the past year, suggesting there is remaining slack in the labor market.
In addition, although the unemployment rate is now near levels commonly associated with the natural rate of unemployment, there are reasons to think that the natural rate may have declined over the past few years such that a gap remains between the unemployment rate and its natural rate. The composition of the labor force, for example, looks to be shifting toward groups with relatively low levels of unemployment.4 In addition, it may be that a reduction in worker bargaining power or perhaps reduced levels of labor market churning are putting downward pressure on the natural rate.5
With the labor market evidencing additional slack not well captured by the standard unemployment rate and with inflation remaining soft, there may be additional room to support further healing in the labor market, which is appropriate following the deep damage from the Great Recession.
Given the softness in the data we have seen so far this year and some uncertainty about how much to attribute to temporary or statistical factors, I think there is value to watchful waiting while additional data help clarify the economy's underlying momentum in the face of the headwinds from abroad. If continued labor market strengthening is confirmed and inflation readings continue to improve, liftoff could come before the end of the year."
I love the future.
love the present, past, future which means i'm one with all three dimensions and all three dimensions are one with me--timeless
Wow dude, Glad to know that you have such evolved thoughs and understand consciousness in such a way, It's all about the perception.
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