Bullshit stocks and ETFs to short or buy puts
I'm thinking about buying some September puts for 3X etfs, and maybe some puts for internet stocks.
Post here with your favorite picks for puts.
Go long gold and silver and long TVIX.
Those 3x things suck. Look up "geometric average."
In the short term 3x is great. Just watch it carefully and don't hold it overnight. Your stops will have to be bigger too, I usually day trade with a 2% trailing stop and with these I have to do like 5% because the volatility is huge. You can buy and sell within 30mins if you're not careful.
Yeah I learned this the hard way. I was trading on the Hindenburg Omen last year and got murdered with getting the direction wrong AND the compounding decay. I don't hold for more than a few days now.
I got short DMD at $20. Not sure it's the greatest short in the world any more at $8.36, but it definitely meets the criteria of bullshit Internet stock. I'd probably be on FAS puts like a chicken on a junebug over the next couple weeks. That or DXD calls.
Eddie, funny you should mention FAS.
I was about to buy a way out-of-the-money put for it today, but the put shot up 800% before I acted. Not sure if it's still worth it. What month expiration put would you recommend buying?
Also, nice job shorting DMD.
ahhaha They've screwed me over sometimes too. But they've saved me sometimes too. If you're actively trading the stock and ae watching the charts, well you dont need them. But if you're not that vigilant I still think it can help. I don't need to be on a flash crash witha stop or on a fast, technical decline without one.
On that note. Fuck holding commodity ETFs overnight. I know a bunch oI will never forget. Not because it was the day Obama announced Osama had been killed, but because silver dropped 12% in 11 minutes and I had no way to trade it because I was holding it in ETFs. Never again. Lost 70k by the time I was up the next morning...bounce? lol.
I have the same story. I got boned in the ass on May 2 also. I was watching the Asian markets all night. Came home from the gym and saw the 15% drop. I was fully loaded with AGQ and some front month SLV options. That is one day I will never forget. It's like getting gang raped by a pack of rabid baboons.
Long TVIX and GLD options now.
Fuck, that sucks. I trade with stops sometimes, but usually trailing stops to lock in a profit.
Along the lines of Eddie, I was thinking Calls on SLV and DXD this afternoon, but I'm not sure if I'm too late to the party on both.
Not sure I'd rush into the SLV calls unless you're going way out, but I think there's plenty of play left in the DXD calls. I'm pretty sure we finish this week in the 9,000's.
I honestly think there's a lot of play left in SLV. The "Sell everything" thing that's going down the last few day is eventually gonna flow into other commodities than gold. I could see it at $42.5 next week. Ever go to Turd Ferguson's site? It's good, even if he is a ZH, world is ending type of guy.
USD Currency Puts.
GMCR is a total piece of shit, and on a technicals basis, look out below! lol
I lol'd. A joke company all around. Its PE of 86+ was the funniest thing I saw all day.
I know nothing about GMCR, but how can a coffee company in a saturated market have a PE of 86?
I'm afraid that all the money may have come out of DXD already today. Maybe the best bet is waiting to see what the FOMC will say tomorrow morning and then play DXD afterwards
I rode SLV past 42 a few months ago and thankfully sold. I could see another run back up to that territory.
42? It went to 49....
Seriously? IF I remember my exit was just shy of $43, but I didn't think it got above $45-46.
Either way, I bought low 30s and sold a short time later for $43.
It may be time to ride that pony again.
I'm buying AGQ tomorrow, just incase the Fed says QE3. If not, its prob a decent bet anyway. Selling before the day ends tho.
I was just looking at SLV calls. I'm thinking about buying $39 calls for November. IF we get a pop over the next week or so I can sell for a profit, otherwise some more bad news should get us there.
I was in and out of SLV yesterday for a loss (my fault), but I'm definitely keeping it in my wheelhouse. I'll probably buy the calls like I did last time.
And Sam Antar (the convicted felon who cooked the books for Crazy Eddie's) has been all over GMCR. Evidently the books are cooked to high heaven and there are all kinds of accounting irregularities over there. Only a matter of time before that dog shits itself.
GMCR seems like a good put candidate after it starts crashing. For now, it seems too likely they might be able to continue what they are doing.
Market is about to open. I think I'm going to give it 30 minutes before I make a move.
I'll be watching SLV, GMCR and DXD closely for the time being.
Times like these make me hate being busy at work.
anyone have any clue why silver is lagging gold so badly? jpm/hsbc up to their old tricks?
Wondering the same thing, frankly.
LOL, I was literally just wondering that exact same thing. I was typing in another thread and started wondering what the gold/silver spread was right now.
Last time I made money on SLV was basically because I didn't understand why SLV was so low relative to gold. I'm now hoping SLV keeps dropping.
Part of the problem is that the average investor (including many institutionals) see gold as the catch-all for risk hedging. Right now gold is trading at 47 times silver - something that makes little sense as silver is like only 10x as abundant as gold and is still a precious metal.
I'd love to say "buy silver" or "buy SLW and SVM" but I cannot in good faith. I'm not sure people will ever move out of gold and into silver as a risk hedge. And silver is primarily mined in Peru, Mexico, and China - three countries not known as super friendly mining spots (two for political instability and one for zero transparency) for investors.
^^
I picked up some coin over the past two days on my GLD options but I'm 100% in cash again because I am confused. I don't know if gold is out of whack against silver or the other way around. My guess is that silver is not trading as a monetary metal right now but as an industrial commodity.
The GS ratio baffles me even more. We may never see 16 again with modern mining that spits out shitloads of byproduct silver -- so we may never see 16 again -- but going up to 47? Something is out of whack.
traders please chime in here. we amateurs need some knowledge.
Yeah, please do. I only know what I see from the equity side. I agree that Ag seems to trade only as an industrial/commercial commodity while Au trades as an investment in addition to its industrial/commercial applications. That's my rationale behind it but I'd love to hear from a metals trader.
I'll get on the horn with some sell side shops to see if they have any insight from their traders. It's something I've been meaning to do anyway, as I cover the gold large caps but haven't paid much attention to the few silver large caps.
Damn you SLV
I bought Nov 38 calls at $3.30 wanting to get in before Fed news.
Fed didn't help me like I hoped, but I bought a long enough holding period that I'm still hoping to get an SLV rally.
I decided not to jump on FAS puts after the reaction caused by the FOMC
yeah, I avoided financials altogether today too. My only move was SLV and now I'm not so sure.
SLW is really annoying me. never goes anywhere
Goddamn it, I started reading this thread and got really confused about the prices I was seeing. Then I saw it was a 7 month old thread. Nice bump there.
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