Feel like this never gets talked about. Curious to see what you guys think about it. It's a major threat to democracy everywhere, and will help to ensure China becomes the world's superpower. Most people have never even heard of it.
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I wouldn't call it a "major threat to democracy." It will help China expand trade relations and while this will help extend their political influence, honestly what they are doing in Africa is more of a threat to democracy.
Thanks for bringing this topic up. I’m very interested in it. There was a theory, I forgot who said, that Eurasia, the largest contiguous landmass; whoever controls Central Asia, controls Eurasia and thus the world. I’ve also heard this rush for influence as the Great Game.
I’m not an expert on this topic but a few questions come up in my mind:
Central Asia has hydrocarbons (oil and gas) which will continue to be important for the foreseeable future, so is that goal of controlling the 2nd Persian Gulf the big prize?
Borders, often cause for conflict when it is near natural resources or other preferred land for infrastructure. China and Pakistan has a strong relationship in this regard in Kashmir. One is a land route to the Indian Ocean. What is India’s strategy at its borders and are they being aggressive enough in Central Asia? Big debate. Btw, thediplomat.com is a great website. Recommended to me by foreign service folks. China’s aggression at the Indian border has some folks recalling their Tibet takeover 70 years ago. The Dalai Lama is old!
Muslim populations inhabit China’s Western Provinces; actually they live in many parts of China. What is China’s soft power to create compliance beyond their borders into heavily Muslim populated countries in Central Asia? I would assume, soft power to benefit the ruling classes, but interested if it trickles down and how.
Bigger Infrastructure Ambitions: what is China’s ambitions for Siberia / Far East? Could China really build a high speed rail connecting Eurasia to the Americas via tunnel under Bering Strait? For what purpose does its String of Pearls strategy in the Indian Ocean serve? All very interesting. I find it a bit sad that people in the Americas can’t even drive from North to South America without a ferry near the Panama Canal.
And then there is Africa.
This question will inevitably come up, but is America "beyond infrastructure?" Due to our two generations of world leadership (structuring of trade and commerce) and investment, is the traditional "belt and road" for the US not going to add much marginal benefit? Not to mention the massive cost and waste. I mentioned a road between North and South America, but wouldn't you rich American rather fly in a jumbo jet instead?
Should the US be better in taking leadership in exploring space or the human genome, as opposed to leading with concrete and steel? It's not one or the other, understandably.
Furthermore, with the US' own domestic energy, do we have the same strategic interest in Central Asia, anymore? I would say India, has more interests.
I don't think China's growth will impose a threat to the US democracy. But would further increase Chinese GDP, but even then, they might have the same questions as the US and see even concrete and steel not adding much more to their future. I think soon. This might be one big jobs project, if anything. I don't think the Han Chinese are banking on economic growth from family road trips from the Stans.
I don't see the issue. The United States has abdicated its role in helping developing nations in favor of a large blue water navy/military presence and domestic spending.
If the Chinese want to extend their geopolitical influence by sponsoring infrastructure development, they have every right to. Anyone (or any American, I guess) who thinks that is a net negative should go out and vote for folks who want to involve the US in building roads and port facilities in foreign nations. This isn't a sinister plot - the United States did effectively the same thing with the Marshall Plan 75 years ago; it's a way of gaining influence and leverage (literal and figurative) over under-developed nations.
The difference is that the Marshall Plan involved in hiring of local people, using local resources, and outsourcing to local companies.
What China's doing with BRI is straight out of the book on typical late colonialism - build infrastructure but through debt, hire Chinese companies, use Chinese resources, and bring Chinese workers. Almost none of the benefits go back to the local economies. China gets it all.
Worst consequence is that African countries can't easily pay the debt without further economic growth. Then, China gets to dominate and control local economies. What's next? China exploiting resources and people.
I should think that's the decision of the country in question to make. If, say, Botswana decides that it's worth the risk of being indebted to China in order to have a new port facility built, what does that bother you? If you find that to be geopolitically unpalatable, then we should be advocating for the United States to do it.
If I',m Botswana in that scenario, it's a question of infrastructure and exploitation from China, or what probably appears to be solely exploitation from the West. That's a no brainer.
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