Farage is going to be the next UK PM

Great results for Reform, now that they have won another parliament seat, and also control of 10 councils in the north. 

It definitely puts them in the spotlight now to deliver change for their communities, especially in tackling crime. They talk a lot, which has definitely given them backing from the public, but now they actually have the opportunity to act and better their areas/councils. People will be following those councils closely, as it could give a flavour of what the country could be like under the general rule of Reform, if they do win the general election.

It does seem more likely that reform will have a strong shot in the general election, but that will only be under more scrutiny now.

Dude you already know the answer, everyone here loves Reform. I like Reform. Just like Trump, you can call him an idiot, but people like his policies, Reform will win at the most and the least Reform/Tory coalition. Golden age of the UK incoming

1. Next election is still 3-4 years away, so pointless to debate whether he becomes PM but;
2. Reform clearly are the opposition to Labour in the 'Red Wall' and are making inroads on Brexit-voting former Labour supporters. This big realignment came during Brexit in 2016, the Tories capitalised on this in 2019 (when Farage stood down his Brexit Party) and they won plenty of red wall seats between 2019-21 when Boris was at his most popular. A lot of these RW seats returned to Labour in the '24 GE, it seems Reform speculate this is where the bulk of their vote base is now
3. I don't think Reform can ever win a majority on their own given FPTP (it will be proportional representation in Wales and Scotland next year, they're polling in the mid 20's in Wales so expect Reform to do very well there) but with Farage still there, they're guaranteed 20-30% of the vote share no matter what. I think the most likely route for Ref to get into power is to win 150 seats and hope the Tories can win 200+ to form a coalition or confidence & supply agreement. Two things to watch are: by Ref now having some local power, if they don't deliver quickly, they will not gain as much support in 2029, the spotlight will be on them. I also think their economic and energy policy is very vulnerable to attack, Tice, Farage (and Lowe) were thought to be ideological low-tax, free-market neoliberals. Yet they support nationalisation of steel in Scunthorpe (this is politics i suppose). A lot of Tice's energy policy is doomerish luddism too, so be on the look out for any self-implosion. The evolution of sound policy will change them from a protest party with TikTok, to a party of potential government.
4. That brings us on to the Tories. Badenoch is awful, yet has actually had a decent few weeks with the Trans ruling and nonsense on the 'Adolescence' tv craze mania that Starmer thinks is so accurate, he should make policy on. The Tories have lost their voting base and coalition. After Brexit, they doubled down on red wall voters when Farage was in semi-retirement and they won voters who would never vote Tory had it not been for Boris. The levelling up message was key to big state spending and harder rhetoric on immigration, alienating some of their Southern, more socially liberal and fiscally conservative voters. The arrival of Farage, the failure of 14 years (i say this as Tory voter myself) and constant reincarnation of ideologies (Cameron was a social metropolitan liberal, the 'Heir to Blair', May was a continuation of Cameroonism, Boris was a high-tax, bigger state Tory, Truss was a supposed Thatcherite for 20 mins, Sunak was ideologically a Thatcherite yet whilst Chancellor brought the spending cannons out to tackle Covid). This has led them to be outflanked on the left and right,  pro-EU Tories (probably would affiliate closest to this) are disillusioned with the party and looking to the Lib Dems / Labour, whereas voters who feel betrayed on failure on tackling immigration are moving to Reform. Jenrick would no doubt be more competent than Badenoch on a performative basis, but why trust someone who was part of the 14 years of failure who may say similar things on immigration like Farage, when you could vote Reform and get the full-fat version too?
5. Lastly, council elections are always meant to be difficult for the governing parties, yet Lab are sort of lucky that because the Tories did so unusually well in 2021 (during vaccine roll-out), that their losses were always going to be amplified in comparison. Losing Runcorn by 6 votes and plenty of councils to Ref will have to cause Starmer & McSweeney to push for a reset and no doubt find some scapegoats. Phillipson and Miliband are vulnerable and have been extremely poor in government. I think it won't be too long before Starmer has to water down a lot of the net zero agenda, even Tony Blair is in support of this

1. No point speculating yet, the next GE is still 3-4 years away. Lots can and will change
2. Reform are the main opposition to Labour in the Red Wall. These were seats that the Tories did well in 2019-21 because of Brexit and Boris, by luring socially conservative working class Labour voters into voting Brexit, then Tory and now Reform under Farage. This is part of a huge re-alignment in British politics. The Tories did so well in 2019 because they clinched the red wall, the red wall then returned to Labour in 2024. Now Reform are banking on making inroads on this voting base
3. Interesting to see the scrutiny Reform get on how they manage councils. This could determine how well they do in 2029, if they perform poorly in local government, people may think they're just another protest party and not a serious, credible opposition. Reform's vulnerability imo is economic (and energy policy) and how they balance their voting coalition. The red wall voters are in favour of more state intervention and spending (Reform played to this base by voicing support of nationalising British Steel), yet Tory-to-Reform voters in the South (golf club tories) are staunchly pro free-market and neoliberal economics. Farage is thought to be Thatcherite, as are Tice (and Rupert Lowe). Given their core economic ideology is at odds with a sizable voting block, its important that they get their messaging and policy to be fully coherent
4. If you think Ref did well this election, keep an eye out for Welsh (and Scottish) elections next year. Reform are polling very well in Wales (mid 20s) with the added benefit of proportional representation - expect parts of Wales to go teal
5. I don't think Reform can ever win an election outright, their best hope is with a Tory-Ref coalition, 'non-aggression' pact (ie not to stand where one of Reform or the Tories is best placed to win a seat) or a confidence and supply agreement. Badenoch is performing poorly, with Jenrick waiting in the wings. The Tories have lost their voting coalition and are outflanked on both the left and the right, with no policy at all. Jenrick clearly is in favour of uniting the right to avoid a split vote that amplifies a victors' majority. Farage's best hope is for Ref to win 100-150 seats (very possible) and the Tories to limper to 200-240 seats. Yet that would mean him at best being Deputy PM and he'd be viewed as a 'traitor' who sold out to the Tories whom he loathed..