Feels like Trump is going to win big
He has the momentum. There is very strong energy around his campaign and genuine enthusiasm among his voters.
Kamala has none of that, she even got booed at one of her rallies last week. She is struggling to articulate a case for voting for her beyond that she isn't Donald Trump (which I think most voters could have figured out on their own).
It really feels like it's going to be a landslide and I wouldn't be surprised if Trump even wins the popular vote.
What are your thoughts on this?
It will be close, but Trump will prevail.
I really hate K, but i kinda feel like I need to hold my nose and vote for here because I'm a Reagan Republican.
Must be the version of Reagan that was still a Democrat then because no Republican Reaganite in their right mind would support an ultra far left progressive who speaks ad nauseum about the need to regulate people's speech, the government's unending need for more power to "help", and moves in lockstep with the industrial war machine. Did you just completely miss his quote "If Fascism Ever Comes to America, It Will Come in the Name of Liberalism"?
His 3hr interview on JRE is already at 36m views on YouTube alone (despite not being allowed to trend), Rogan's 4th biggest episode ever in 72hrs. Doesn't even remotely capture the views from X, Spotify, and Apple which probably push it over 100m just off Joe's official channels. Best finish any politician could ask for.
Kamala's views on 8min appearance on Call Her Daddy (largest comparable female-led podcast in the US; which trended to the point even I got it recommended despite never engaging anything pro-Kamala or watching/subscribing to anything from CHD) haven't even broken 1m after 3 weeks... And her campaign's big October Surprise push is saying "Trump is literally Hitler" (how original) while posting pictures of the Nazis hosting a rally at MSG almost 100 years ago...
Regardless of your politics it's hard to argue who momentum heavily favors right now.
Edit:
And it just came out Kamala literally declined to do the same interview with Joe after SHE reached out to HIM. Was offered the same 3hrs 1-on-1 in-person interview while she was IN TEXAS and declined, countering with 1hr where he travels to do it with her with others in the room (and obviously to make it harder for Jamie to real-time fact check), which of course Joe refuses because that's not the format of his show. Her sheer entitlement is off the charts vs Trump who cleared his schedule for the opportunity and was hours late to a rally with 10s of 1000s of attendees.
This same person will go putz around for a townhall on CNN for a few 100k geriatric cable viewers but declines a 3hr uninterrupted opportunity to speak to voters on the largest show on the planet a week out from the election? Who the hell is running her campaign and thought this was a good idea? I'm genuinely irritated by this, would've made the best drinking game ever watching her stumble through 3hrs of unedited, unscripted conversation while knowing more eyes would be on her than ever before.
Trump now at 40m and #2 Rogan episode after 4 days. Wow.
Edit:
God bless America. Trump 2024!
lol, comparing JRE and Call Her Daddy viewership as though that’s an apples to apples barometer of anything
It's a given that no interview-based media on the planet can go toe-to-toe with Rogan's viewership. CHD is or at least was the #2 or 3 biggest podcast in terms of total viewership and had $100m+ contracts offered by major streaming services. It's the largest public platform she's bothered to make an appearance on + it was being heavily promoted by the YT algorithm whereas Rogan's was actively suppressed by the hosting platform itself which easily cost it 20%+ of its potential viewership early on. It's not perfect by any means, but it's the best comp available considering she turned down the Rogan offer.
The fact Trump's interview still got 60x the viewership in 1/3rd the time and it's a much longer format vs the more easily consumable 8min piece she did speaks volumes, especially considering factoring in the media consumption habits of Democrats vs Republicans.
He most certainly isn’t winning the popular vote. I don’t even know how you come to that determination.
Trump is currently ahead of Harris in the RCP average of national polls.
Sources: Circle jerks, vibes, and information bubbles
Trump can easily still win the election, but people on WSO are laughably out of their league when it comes to how politics actually work. These dudes need to read more and tiktok less.
> Trump is literally ahead in the polls for the popular vote.
> The same polls that consistently underestimated him in both 2016 and 2020 by 2 to 3 percentage points.
> Libs: "Those MAGAts are just delusional"
God, the douchy arrogance of liberal zoomers and millenials. Unbelievable. You haven't learned a thing from the last 8 years, didn't you? If anything, you are the one who is stuck in an ideological and informational safe space, stop projecting.
Maybe you should have spent more time on TikTok and read less leftist propaganda.
You were saying?
oof
Why do you think that?
For those that are Trump supporters, how do you reconcile with economists agreeing that his economic and trade policies will widen the country’s deficit? I’m only asking because I’m buying my first home and the mortgage rates are closely tied to the 10 year treasury yields and rates have been climbing as the market is betting that Trump will win. It sounds like Trump winning the election will be bad for homebuyers like myself.
The country's deficit is driven more by its own printing & spending of money with reckless abandon than anything else. Democrats don't give a fuck about the deficit and have never even claimed to. Also most mainstream economists are utter clowns you should disregard because they buy into modern monetary theory which is on its face a failure.
Democrats as a monolith run as the party of welfare handouts and entitlements, promising free healthcare, education, etc. which of course isn't free, it's paid for by the government. There are tons of wasteful examples that have their broad support:
In contrast, Trump is running with the idea of massive Federal govt. cuts and has built a team around him that echoes that sentiment:
Addressing specifically economic/trade policy - Tariffs, which are the main focus, have nothing to do with rates. They're about forcing foreign actors to compete with domestic labor so a low cost labor country like China doesn't get to completely undermine an entire industry like they did American mfg with slave-like conditions. The price increases that result from them are NOT inflation-based, which is caused by the oversupply of money due to Fed policy, but essentially a form of consumption-based taxation. Combined with how he's been floating the idea of no taxes on tips, overtime, social security, and in a couple of cases income all together is an incredible 1-2 punch because it moves the burden of taxation from individuals to consumption itself. The American market is so large & rich that other countries will put up with the tariffs to be here. So no, this particular aspect of his policy has nothing to do with your home rates. If you're worried about inflation which is what results in rate hikes, then see Biden's administration that's overseen the worst in 40 years.
Edit:
Oh and if you're worried about being a homebuyer - Kamala's talking about giving $20k+ down payment assistance to low income AND illegal immigrants. If anyone learned anything from 2008 (or a highschool econ class), it's that giving free money to the most financially illiterate and irresponsible segment of the population as it relates to home purchases results in a massive bubble inflating prices. Tack on the obscene amount of spending we've gotten from this admin (they added over $500b to the deficit from just normal operations in 1 month) we're almost certainly going to see a resurgence in inflation regardless of who wins next week. Which means higher rates. So yeah, if home prices are really your deciding issue it's a no brainer here who the better option is regardless of your politics.
Those economists are all libs. Someone posted to X that each and every one of them has donations, appointments etc that indicate they are aligned formally with the left.
And only half the living Nobel laureates signed that letter. You can be certain the other half were offered the chance, and need to ask why they didn't.
Lastly, consider both quantity and quality of deficit. If you create a deficit by leaving money in the pockets of taxpayers, they spend it relatively efficiently on their needs compared to the government who tends to spend it wastefully. Furthermore, big programs spawn more big programs, while a smaller tax collection may spawn a more austere budget in the future (a man can dream). We could at least try it, instead of raising taxes and spending all the time.
So I think it's very dishonest when people act like a spending-driven deficit and a tax-cut-driven deficit are the same.
Holy cook 💪🏽
I really don’t care what the economists say for the most part. Any think tank just writes whatever the donors tell them to and since macro projections are so fuzzy to begin with, they’ll just play with the data or models to make their political points.
Dont feel like mainstream economists making economy predictions are worth anything, they have nothing at stake and just basically guessing.
Short term pain is expected. Sometimes...you have to be prepared to take a personal hit for the sake of improving your country's future.
Not after Pwerto Rico
waaaah the Tom Brady roast comedian made jokes about every group but I took particular offense to the part of his act the MSM presented out of context as if it were a serious political statement waaaah
I’m a Kill Tony fan but I don’t think anything was taken “out of context” lol. People just didn’t find the joke funny
You may not care, but there's data on this. Swing state Latinos certainly seem to.
YouGov / Univision Noticias - Pennsylvania Latino Voters (Post Madison Square Garden)
400 RV | 10/29-11/3 | MOE: 5%
🔵 Harris: 64% (+34)⭐
🔴 Trump: 30%
I think Trumps momentum is exaggerated by his supporters online presence but he’s still gonna win.
Personally not voting for trump despite hating Kamala and her policies especially with the border because the guy is way too old at 78 and JD Vance is an absolute grifter and would sell out his whole bloodline to become president.
OK but Vance is also by far the most competent person among the 4 people on the ticket. Not even close.
Vance is a bullshitter. Bruh. Come on now.
lol some of you Trumpets are too edgy
You are voting for 20% change in political direction and 80% entertainment for the next four years. #Trump
Reference two right wing echo chambers (here and Joe Rogan) = everyone voting for him. Lol
Joe Rogan's a right-wing echo chamber? Dude's a CA liberal that grew up in SF / Boston and was a Bernie supporter in both the prior elections lmfao
His listeners tend to be young men with drive, ambition and above-average incomes. These days that’s a right wing echo chamber because the left has no room for such people.
You must be naive to think that Joe Rogan isn’t a right wing echo chamber
Brotha feels like? It’s basically a guarantee with the way market is looking rn lol
If Trump doesn't win, I will be seriously suspicious that our entire electoral process from here on out has been compromised.
You guys seriously live in echo chambers
MAGA will be studied by psychologists eventually 🤪
Like, I stopped listening at "win big"
Whoever you like the one certainty is that it'll be close. I've said my opinions before, but this isn't going to be like Reagan 1984.
Sensing a lot of overconfidence from my fellow Trump supporters. Here are the myths that concern me:
Myth 1. "Biden was polling ahead by 5% or more in 2020, and barely won, so if Kamala is in a dead heat in polls she's in trouble." There's actually a lot of indications that pollsters made large adjustments starting in '22 to make sure they don't under-count Republicans. That led to a disappointing '22 for GOP, where pollsters showed a red wave and Dems instead won big. So the idea that we'll get a bump in real votes because we did in '20 doesn't seem accurate.
Myth 2. "Early voting is showing much higher % of GOP voters." It's a very weak sign. Dems voted early in '20 because they were hysterical about Covid. So that alone projects lower early Dem voting this year. GOP avoided early voting in '20 because the party/Trump had messaging against it. Not so this year. Young libs recently like to report as independent. All of these factors contribute to a GOP advantage in early voting relative to '20, without the GOP actually gaining any ground in the end.
Myth 3. "Swing state polls are looking positive for Trump". Look at the '22 and '23 final results and you'll sober up real quick. Pennsylvania elected a Dem governor by 15% margin, and a Dem Senator with a serious brain injury by 6%. Just last year, GOP underperformed in all 3 governor's races, winning 2 deep red states by a razor thin margin and losing Kentucky. These are recent bloodbath results for the GOP in a very similar environment to what we have today.
I still give Trump the edge. But barely. My friends telling me he's got it in the bag are in for a big surprise.
Myth 4: The average American is smart enough to realize the vacuous nature of the Kamala campaign and smart enough to realize that Trump is not Adolf Hitler.
Myth 5: The system is not rigged. Appears to be rigged when it comes to the media, social media, justice department, presidential candidate security, etc. Hopefully, our electoral system is not rigged as well.....I really hope so. Seems like a lot of people are willing to do anything to stop Trump. Do they cross the line at election integrity?
If #4 or #5 are myths, nothing else matters.
People on both sides are absolutely convinced their candidate is going to win because they live in their echo chambers. Realistically trump is in the lead but it’ll probably be a close race.
Election is going to come down to how many women vote against their own interests.. if it's enough than yeah Trump will win.
Polls are useless predicting an outcome when only 7 or so states will decide the electoral college by maybe 100-200k combined votes.
Anyone saying that trump will win the popular vote is delusional though.
Totally agree. Comes down to whether women will vote for their own interests or the life of an unborn human being.
Hoping people realize that there is more to this life than your own self interest and make the right decision. And hoping that they realize this whether we are in an election or not.
If only there was nuance vs Christian fundamentalist drive to control all.
republicans lost the presidency in 2024 the moment Roe was overturned
Just watch
Imagine what appointing another 3 SC justices would do...
Last time chauvanists/racists turned the supreme court into a political tool there was a civil war so you tell me
This is the year the Green Party and Jill Stein take the White House.
This is the year the Green Party and Jill Stein take the White House.
This is the year the Green Party and Jill Stein take the White House.
Serious question from a relatively apolitical person: what do you guys make of the following topics?
Don’t some of these things make it hard to trust him?
1. The real story of January 6th is the Dems trying to turn it into another 9/11 or Pearl Harbor. Trump being a crybaby about losing is something we'd already weighed years earlier when we decided to support him over career criminal Hillary Clinton.
2. Funny how sexual misconduct stories always come during election years, and always from leftist advocates. One of life's great mysteries.
3. Lying is relative. The left wants to turn this country into a socialist dystopia and is telling you that they're smarter for it. Is that just lying, stupidity, or both? I don't really care . . I just don't want to live in a socialist dystopia.
You sound like a caricature.. too perfectly warped in your world view to be a real person.
Agreed. I already voted for him and I think he has a shot at winning. I also bet a few hundred bucks on Kamala just to lock in a little consolation prize for myself if she does pull it off. Would be a 2.6x if she wins. Massive divergence of betting market odds and polls right now so it will be interesting to see which were more predictive once the election is over.
Thinking back on the summer it is just surreal that the democrats tried to gaslight everyone for years that Biden was fine, then turned around and replaced him with zero shame. And now Kamala who received zero primary votes is the ‘sacrificial lamb’ so Newsom and other more viable dems don’t look like damaged goods in 2028. When asked about her platform she said she wouldn’t do anything different from Biden, so what’s the point? Brat Summer is over and Waste Management Winter is imminent... Taking out the trash lol
You seriously have to be braindead to vote for Kamala.
Imagine voting for a candidate that is ultra low IQ, can’t even string a sentence together, and who has been jointly responsible for the policies of the past 4 years.
I find it amusing that Americans believe everything they read, especially the fabricated news articles since June 2024 about how Kamala is a qualified candidate.
So she suddenly went from being the worst VP in history (as per the legacy media articles from January 2021-2024) to a ‘sensible leader’??
Americans deserve the mess they’re in because all they do is sit in front of a TV and watch the legacy media.
Do they do independent research? No.
Do they ask who funds the news agencies and tabloids? No.
People on the left not only fail to think for themselves, they get immediately fearful of anyone who does.
Lot of people in this thread are gonna be mighty upset when Trump goes 0/2 against members of the Biden administration this time.
Read the room. Trump lost as an incumbent and shit all over the halls of government on his way out with the help of his most degenerate supporters. It’s been almost 10 years since 2016. Being a bombastic asshole in politics isn’t shocking or fresh or funny to most people anymore, and the entire culture of proud ignorance and toxicity that characterizes the modern GOP - which was once funny because it trolled a calcified liberal establishment - is now no longer amusing, partly because it has become a part of the establishment. Watching Trump emasculate GOP worms like Ted Cruz in the primaries was funny, and watching him humiliate Hilary made a lot of people feel good. Watching him and his entourage of dickhead idiots, plastic surgery victims and sycophants hold circus in Washington for another four years is a bit much for most of us.
I mean they actually overturned Roe lmao, take that for starters and venture a guess how most women are gonna vote. Do you think men will vote as disproportionately in favor of Trump? Simple as.
Aged like milk
Yep, I was wrong - turns out a majority of this country unfortunately has much worse judgment than I thought possible, even after seeing the bar fall as low as it has these last 8 years.
Assuming you’re a Trump supporter, congratulations on sowing the wind. See you when the storm comes around.
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