Future of European Defence - Next Steps?
"There are decades where nothing happens ; and weeks where decades happen" - Lenin
Trump v2.0 is back and in business. First Vance caught the Munich Security Conference by surprise (ironic it happened in Munich given 1938), Trump disbands USAID (relevent for the soft v hard power debate), Trump meets Starmer, Macron and then the Zelenskyy showdown / fighting match before announcing Ukraine aid is cut off. All of this happened in between tariffs for Canada, China and Mexico to call bluffs and then as of today, Trump saying Ukraine are willing to sign the minerals deal.
Trump made it clear that the EU have to chip in for their fair share which is even agreed by European liberals / soft centre-left. My view is that Europe have undergone 2 decades of demilitarizing and cutting defence budgets with the assurance of the US to have collective security and defence, largely through NATO. Only 6 countries met 2% of GDP spend in 2021, that is now at 23/32. Political and economic pressure means even small increases (UK to 2.5%) and today Merz' abandoning of the debt brake will be met by soaring borrowing costs and a lack of market confidence to fund this (for the UK, increasing defence spending will most likely evaporate fiscal headroom c.£10bn). Europe has to wake up and form some common defence 'bank' to get collective responsibility of security, whilst inviting European defence companies and nations to cooperate in doing so. This daunting task is more tricky when EU disruptive states such as Hungary and Serbia (much more pro-Kremlin) and that the software & maintenance hardware of developing new defence tech is still dominated by the USA. All of this uncertainty occurs whilst China is quietly monitoring and no doubt building its pressure in the South China Sea. Trump may have abandoned Europe, but there's reasonable doubt if you're SK / Japan / Taiwan for security (although TSMC announced a $100bn investment into the US which is surely enough to appease Trump).
Interested to hear other perspectives, views and insights into this!
You’re right, Europe can’t keep relying on the U.S. forever, especially with everything going on in Ukraine and China. A common defense “bank” could be the way forward, but getting every country on board, especially with some pro-Kremlin states, will be tough. Europe’s still heavily dependent on U.S. tech, which complicates things. The real challenge is figuring out how to boost defense spending without crippling the economy. It’s a tricky balance, but if Europe wants true security independence, it’s going to have to cooperate more closely and start developing its own defense tech. The road ahead won’t be easy, but it’s necessary.
The first thing that Europe needs to recognize is the US can no longer be trusted. It is pretty clear that Trump favors Russia over US allies. It is inevitable that the US will drop out of NATO. Europe will need to be more self reliant or form stronger relationship with other countries.
"Favors Russia over US allies"
???
Our allies have been tariffing us for decades, to a much larger extent than we have put tariffs on them. They deny the US access to portions of their economies. "Protectionism for me, free trade for thee" seems to be their motto. All the while they rely on my tax dollars to fund their collective defense, which frees up money for their healthcare, pensions, and long vacations.
So when the US says that enough is enough, somehow that is "favoring Russia"?
I don’t think saying enough is enough is favouring Russia.
I think claiming Ukraine started the war, suggesting they should roll over and give up their land to Russia, calling the democratically elected president a dictator (ironic given Putin) and deciding you want to stop defending against Kremlin cyberattacks might be slightly favouring Russia.
I think it’s high time Europe starts paying for its own defence, we have been leaching off of America/NATO for long enough and it’s unfair. I’m also more keen to engage in a potential war with Russia, than I am with China who’s US embassy tweeted theyre willing and prepared to fight any type of war with America.
He absolutely favors Russia over US allies. Does he say anything negative about Russia? He says plenty of negative things about Europe. I wish I was making this up but today, someone from the Kremlin said they share the same world view as Trump. Russia was thrilled with how Trump berated Zelinkskyy and said so in a tweet.
I am pretty sure we are going to drop out of NATO. Between the US and Europe, we are the only country to invoke article 5 and it happened after 9/11
The US could also have Healthcare, vacations, and other strong social safety nets if they wanted to.
This is correct
These are not children on a playground. Americans (including politicians and most elites) have a cartoonishly unsophisticated understanding of how international relations work, so thats how we talk about this stuff. It makes reading the news feel like a labotomy
China is a peer competitor to the US. Russia is a declining great power with a gigantic nuclear arsenal, tons of natural resources, and an incredibly strategic location vs China. Europe has no role in this game. Its a museum. Or like an 60 year old ex smokeshow confused that she no longer turns heads at the bar (or can get uncle sam to keep funding its security).
It's not about whether trump loves Russia or some bullshit like that. America was always pivoting to Asia and Russia can be helpful there in ways that France and the UK can never be. This is brutal reality. Trump is just being an asshole about it
Solid point, but long term Trump and the US have little hope of concrete gains with Russia.
imo, and i'm surprised people haven't learned this by now, it's a real threat but Trump is not going to pull out unless the Europeans don't cooperate at all, which they will. Similar to his tariffs threats, EOD it's a negotiation as always with Trump, Europeans know that 5% defense spending is a hell of a lot better than NATO without the US, as they are obviously getting the better end of the deal even with term adjustments.
The EU (not Europe as a whole) has no future in their own defense. Their populations and economies are weak, have no pride in their history/national identity, and no dedicated pool of young men who will to fight for it. Their regulations have crippled them since the 2000s, their startup ecosystem is a complete joke, and all their best talent left or is looking to leave to go to the US or emerging markets that don't make impossible for them to actually build something. All they have left are good academic founders who can generate good products that they'll subsequently fail to commercialize. The few successful companies that come out of Europe are ones that started decades ago or exceptions to the rule that defy the odds. Particularly in defense, that ship sailed 20 years ago and is never coming back. Their demographics will seal that deal in terms of their continual decline. The continent is a museum. The places where innovation and future development will come from are for the most part the non-EU countries.
“Particularly in defense.” France has more defence exports than Russia and China. The US Navy’s latest frigates are developed by Fincantieri.
Let’s see… there’s Airbus, Dassault, Thales, Saffran…
… and an independent nuclear deterrent. After the Suez Canal crisis, the UK and France drew 2 very different conclusions. The UK concluded they could no longer go at it on their own and built their “special relationship” with the US.
France’s conclusion, on the other hand, was the US was an unreliable partner and they needed to take things into their own hands (much to the criticism of the US). That Europe’s future should be controlled by Europeans. After all these years, I guess they were right.
Building stuff for the MENA and India (their biggest customers are not the US) =/= having a strong European defense. If you want to base this off of exports sure, they're like 25% of what the US does (who refuses to export their best stuff and is its own largest consumer) and producing worse stuff in majority of cases with respect to modern warfare capabilities. Congratulations.
Now take a good look at the size of their military and its global presence then reevaluate. Exports to the developing world are not what build your defense base. Your own capabilities are and every EU nation's are laughable. They're so far behind the ball that even banded together they would be capable of a fraction of what the US was capable of 20 years ago. And again, you ignore the demographics at your own peril. I repeat, Europe is a museum and vanishes from the global superpower game inside of 50 years unless they do a complete 180 on immigration and social culture. Sadly the EU lacks the people, policy, and will to make such a shift in their current form.
I almost entirely agree with your take, but am hopeful they can regain some cojones, though that seems unlikely. There are many things I like about the concept of an EU (and many things they have accomplished), but the current iteration is very sclerotic.
I see the EU as a superorganism that swallows rich countries by offering them free trade and poor countries by offering them agricultural subsidies. In exchange, you pay with your sovereignty. And if you leave, it will make an example of you.
It takes a while to build up a defense industrial base. Otherwise all the spending in the world won't matter - you can't lob giant bags of euros at the enemy.
The society has to consciously agree to make economic sacrifices to support the domestic production of stuff like artillery shells and tank munitions. This could mean lower social spending, higher prices for other goods, and maybe structurally higher deficits and interest rates. No free lunch.
I realize there's a consensus among european elites around boosting defense capacity, but have the people bought in? I'll believe it when I see it.
There is no point for them to build a defense industrial base. Outside of a small handful of European countries there is no more people left to fight the war. Demographics in many European countries make it impossible for them to wage a large scale war.
I completely agree, but it's worth exploring why. Demographics are one huge reason. Id also point to a shitty economy and lack of a defense industrial base.
I basically don't actually blame Europe that much for not investing in defense tho. If stupid Uncle Sam wants to bankroll your security, it would be insane to stop him
Their real screwup was spending all that money on welfare largess and letting useless bureaucrats hamstring their economic competitiveness. Europe might still matter today if it had a robust economy with tons of cutting edge innovative tech businesses.
Instead it's mainly old world industrial firms with workers rioting for pension at age 40
The demographic problem can't be hit on enough. They needed to do something in the 90s. They're a lost cause now. Barring some massive social shift Europe will cease to be a major international power in the next 50 years.
Russian demographics are far worse than Europeans for fighting wars. You need to take both sides of the equation into account. They have a rapidly declining population and the few young people they do have are either leaving the country or have already died in their current war.
Completely true! It's almost like... Russia isn't a massive global threat over the long-term and the claims that they're trying to reconstitute the Soviet Union are complete nonsense. They're just an old crabby country that doesn't want its historic enemies (NATO) right at its doorstep waving missiles around (much like the Cuban Missile Crisis). If we (the US) had let the sleeping dog lie, there wouldn't be a war.
Neither is China for that matter. One child policy has crippled their demographics and they are facing a massive real estate crisis as well as agricultural crisis.
But really how does this affect LeBron’s legacy?
For all the antics he is doing, I think this is a net-positive for the West. The US would have a challenging time competing with China / Iran / Russia with the current social welfare trajectory the EU has been on. It's time to give them a kick to revive a time when European countries were centers of innovation and strength (please don't assume I am referencing their imperalist past).
I'll be sad if Poland doesn't get its own nuclear arsenal out of this whole situation. They probably won't though, but at a minimum should try to get under the French nuclear umbrella.
I think everyone here is missing the biggest elephant in the room by far: European elites are 2928282x more worried about each other than they are of Russia. The whole point of NATO was to "keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down."
Europe has historically been a gigantic blood soaked insane asylum that drags the rest of the world into its fuckery. Why have these lunatics calmed down since WW2? A coldblooded realist like me would say it's because Uncle Sam has been sitting on their heads the last 80 years as the field trip chaperone
Not even Russia wants America to leave Europe entirely. A fully remilitarized Europe unbound from the US could behave in very unpredictable ways
If you gave every single person in Europe truth serum and asked them whether they would give Germany a military powerful enough to deter Russia, maybe 75% of normal people would say yes because the media and their leaders told them Putin = Stalin.
Maybe 10% of European policy makers say yes though. No one fucking wants the giant German war machine to start exercising those muscles again. I am fascinated to see how Europe deals with the problem of each other as it tries to remilitarize. That is where fantasies of a European army come from imo
Actually now that I think of it, it's kind of hypocritical that the US is now bashing Europe for not spending on defense. If the whole point of NATO was to keep these lunatics from killing one another, wasn't that expected? Really interesting
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