High level COVID thoughts

I'm curious as to what other research analysts/associates/PMs are assuming in terms of near-term and long-term impacts of the coronavirus when doing their valuations, analyses, and due diligence. Does your fund have a standardized set of macro assumptions? How do your views differ from your colleagues?

Ultimately, nobody really knows what's going on, and your guess is as good as mine, but I think it's probably worthwhile to gather some different perspectives as to what COULD happen. In the spirit of value investing, the goal here is to come up with a bottom 25th percentile of worst case scenarios rather than a median scenario, if you get what I mean.

Here are my assumptions. Again, your guess is as good as mine. * The lifting of lockdowns is politically motivated and premature. Second wave is highly likely, as historical precedence would suggest * Normalization won't happen until at least 2022 (full normalization, not just a recovery), possibly later depending on vaccine timing * Business travel volumes permanently reduced, as companies reevaluate if they really need to send a guy over to the client's office * Office space demand permanently reduced (magnitude thereof is highly uncertain, but likely material, in my view) * Increased networking needs, possibly acceleration of 5G adoption? * Greater need for cyberinsurance * The business interruption debate in insurance will have long-term impact on the industry; I think it will be resolved in the insurers' favor * US/China trade war will escalate beyond simple tariffs post-pandemic; many repercussions for companies with supply chains and growth drivers in China

Any thoughts? What are your assumptions?