How Big Was Malcolm Butler's Interception in Super Bowl XLIX?

With 1:06 left in Super Bowl XLIX, the Seattle Seahawks trailed the New England Patriots by four points. After just having taken their timeout, Russell Wilson and company lined up at the 5-yard line for a 1st-and-Goal play. Marshawn Lynch powered to the New England 1-yard line for four yards.

Before the play, the Seahawks had a 58.38% chance to win the game. After the play, that jumped to 64.02%. Here were the expected drive outcomes from 2nd-and-Goal at the 1-yard line, with one minute remaining, down four points:

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From a qualitative standpoint, Butler's interception will go down as one of the greatest plays in NFL history. Sal Paolantonio, noted NFL analyst, thinks it's the 2nd best play ever, only behind Bar Starr's QB sneak in the legendary 1967 NFL championship game (aka "Ice Bowl"). I would even rank it above David Tyree's insane catch in super bowl XLII because Butler's play basically ended the game in a dramatic fashion. What made the play even more crazy is that Wilson's pass was actually quite good. His release was slightly late, but if you look at the speed and trajectory, it was absolutely perfect. Butler was like 10 feet away when Wilson threw the ball but somehow managed to leap in front to intercept it. UNBELIEVABLE.

 

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