How to value a renewable energy platform?
As the title says, how would you value a platform player with assets in various stages of development?
As the title says, how would you value a platform player with assets in various stages of development?
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The way you usually (not exclusively, of course) look at valuing a renewable platform is that the heavy numbers - CAPEX and the future revenue streams - are fairly fixed, while the big swing factor is how you value the project rights the developer contributes. Typically, the developer doesn’t bring cash but puts in those rights as equity in kind, and the investor covers the CAPEX (later on also a predefined part of DEVEX, since this is often the whole idea behind a platform play). So the economics hinge on how much weight you give to the rights.
Deals are often structured so that the investor sets "aside" an equity frame, and early-stage projects only get recognized once they’ve reached certain milestones. That way, the investor doesn’t overpay for immature pipeline, and the developer still gets rewarded step by step. In a JV setup, every time a project is dropped in, the investor’s share goes up since they finance most of the CAPEX - but the marginal increase gets smaller as the JV grows and becomes more valuable overall.
Would you just run a DCF of all the projects future cash flows to get to a platform valuation? How about corporate SG&A?
On the DCF question:
In my experience, a straight DCF valuation makes sense where you value a platform that provides access to RtB projects that are close to (or on their way to) construction start with typically staggered construction start / COD dates. To be able to run a DCF on a given project, you apply your share of the project, which is typically (though not exclusively) determined upfront through the valuation of the project rights (the developer’s/seller’s equity in kind). If the developer or seller fully exits, you simply treat the value of the project rights as part of CAPEX and in turn will receive the full revenue/cash stream. For operating projects, valuation is more straightforward and usually based on a standard DCF of contracted or merchant cash flows.
That said, in practice many investors apply a blended approach in platform transactions: RtB or near-RtB projects are valued on a DCF basis, while earlier-stage pipeline is typically priced on a per-MW benchmark (heavily discounted to reflect attrition risk). By that you ensure that tangible cash-flow-generating assets are properly captured, while the more speculative pipeline is recognized only at a fraction of its potential value.
On SG&A:
As the poster below already pointed out, you usually have a consolidation tab (portfolio valuation sheet) in the model, which essentially gives you the P&L of your JVCo/IPP where SG&A will be reflected and which is where you would run the DCF.
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