Trending Content
| +89 | GF doesn’t care about her looks | 57 | 7h | |
| +57 | Affair with my Associate… In Desperate Need for Advice | 23 | 1d | |
| +51 | How to sound more eloquent? | 19 | 2h | |
| +40 | 400k/year in HVAC sales? | 26 | 1d | |
| +37 | WSO Ranking On Resume??? | 9 | 1h | |
| +33 | Would you rather live alone in an outer borough or with roommates in Manhattan? | 23 | 2d | |
| +28 | Why do people listen to Jim Cramer Investing Advice? | 11 | 4h | |
| +27 | Carnivore Diet | 12 | 7h | |
| +26 | Is my boss gaslighting me? | 3 | 1d | |
| +24 | Chaotic Insane investment banker who passed away in the 90s or 2000s | 12 | 1d |
Career Resources
UFOinsider, have you checked out these or run a search:
More suggestions...
If those topics were completely useless, don't blame me, blame my programmers...
Amazed no one wants to touch this. Fine I'll go first: I picked up a sizeable SPXU call option position last week, I fully expect 1000% return.
What's your strategy?
I'm copying you and hoping you know what you're doing. I just need to know what year/month
* PLEASE NOTE* this does not constitute investment advice. I'm simply speaking to my own approach and anyone who copies it is fully responsible for all risks.
Jan 2023 SPXU calls at $15 (and some $25 and $30 because they're dirt cheap), and also a few small lots in earlier months. So: Sept $20, Nov $20, and Dec $20.
Oftentimes with options they'll jump a couple hundred percent long before the expiry and I then sell enough of the position to have a net gain no matter what happens to the rest, but leave some open in case the market swings further in my favor and capture the extreme %gains.
Good luck....anyone betting against this economy is going to need it!
This means that we will get "higher interest rates across the curve and asset values declining generally."
In fact, "in aggregate, the asset markets will decline from 20% to 25%,” he said in the interview with Bloomberg Television.
I hope he's right, mostly because I can't understand how anyone thinks the S&P500 is running to $4400......and more importantly.....how they think it could possibly go up from these in these macro conditions.
Long QQQ. GL.
I too picked up some SSO calls as a hedge a few months back
Good luck dude!
Bull trap
Sold some long positions last week, but not bearish enough to actually go short vs. taking some of my long positions off
20% cash gang until red october then I’ll start buying dips
COOL! I'm wondering A) how high S&P can go from year and then B) what's the 2, 3, and 5 year outlook......and why
I think we're going to continue to trade in a fairly tight range until we get more clarity on how persistent inflation is going to be in the markets, since that's clearly what's driving the short-term narrative right now. If someone put a gun to my head and told me to make a guess, I think we trade closer to 3800 first on the S&P, just because capital and liquidity has to keep drying up pretty quickly with the increase in rates. That said, I also do understand the bull thesis that earnings have holding up relatively well, the job market/consumer is strong, etc., which may drive prices higher. Because the push and pull is so tight and I see arguments in both directions, I'm pretty convinced we'll be trading within the high-3000s, sub-4250 level for a while until there's clear signs inflation is abating, depending on market sentiment. This is all, of course, barring geopolitical bombshells that could drag us materially lower.
I haven't looked at the details of the CPI data, but as an Average Joe who isn't an economist and is just making guesses off of my experiences, the Fed hiking rates isn't really helping with the inflation I'm feeling. Gas, groceries, rent, etc. are all much higher and I don't really think the Fed hiking rates will do much to alleviate the price pressure in these categories (MAYBE rent, but that's about it).
My understanding is that prices in these categories are high primarily due to supply-side issues, such as getting builders and materials to construct homes. I'd wager that the typical American, who isn't on a Wall Street-oriented website, probably spends an even higher percentage of their income on these items and are hurting even more. The wage hikes will certainly help cool the job market in terms of wages as business sentiment declines, but to me that only really causes relief in the discretionary portions of the CPI. I don't think our problems will truly be solved until supply chains fully adapt to the disruptions across the world and our staples start seeing meaningful decreases in price.
The fix in the supply side of staple goods, to me, will take time and probably won't be solved for at least another year, if not longer. Therefore, I think we go a bit lower, but not significantly lower because high inflation also signals strong overall demand (i.e. companies' earnings will continue to be good for companies producing superior products/services). I'm curious to hear counterpoints and what I may be missing though, because this is all conjecture based on anecdotes I have versus any hard analysis of data.
TL;DR
1. I think inflation right now, and therefore the markets, are primarily being driven by supply-side shocks rather than a demand shock.
2. The Fed's tool of raising rates alleviates demand, but that isn't the biggest variable here to me. Lower rates will hurt markets, but there's only so much the Fed can do by raising rates and the "pain" referenced today in Powell's speech will take time to heal.
3. Thus, we grind lower slowly for some period of time, or trade in a tight range as the Fed wavers between signaling more tightening or potential easing
4. I'm an idiot and don't think I can beat the markets consistently, so don't take anything I've said above as anything but mental masturbation from my end.
Yup I don't think anyone is happy with the idea of tightening the business cycle to deflate demand instead of fixing the supply side, but what to do?
Only question in my mind is how long the markets remain indecisive: it never goes sideways for long.
That's probably true. I think there's more downside risk than upside risk right now the more I thought about this over the weekend. Corporate earnings were somewhat strong, but I also realized we probably haven't seen any meaningful impact from rate hikes yet filter through the economy and won't for another 3-6 months. For example, it's going to start becoming much harder for manufacturing companies and retailers to expand (ironically even though that's what we need right now) because debt will be more expensive to finance. As their earnings suffer, folks will get laid off, compounding the issue we're already seeing of layoffs in tech. That will lead to a decrease in services, etc. and worsen this recession.
So the fed's rate hikes will work in that demand will weaken, but again, is this really going to have a meaningful impact on inflation? I'm not convinced because energy, which is an input to practically everything we buy, is going to remain high until governments around the globe start giving signals/incentives to meaningfully invest in fossil fuels to abate our short-term crisis. That's why I'm actually now kind of worried about a stagflation scenario where we have weak employment, but prices will remain high because nothing has been done to fix the supply-side issue, which is the real cause of the inflation IMO.
It's very hard to predict when things will turn, since markets are fickle and forward-looking, so I'm still DCAing into broad funds because I have a long time horizon for those investments. For my trading account, I'm mostly just wheeling options and trying to wing trade for $500-$1000 gains if I get assigned a position to take advantage of the volatility. I think it's going to be a painful 6-9 months till all this gets sorted out and hopefully I can make a few quick dollars from the volatility while still building up some long-term wealth for the future. For long-term positions, I think Energy is still a really safe bet. A lot of firms are profitable at $60 oil. Even if we drop to $85 from these levels, these companies are still going to be printing money for a long-time.
Agree. Look, geopolitically, the world was at a near-automated, optimized steady-state pre-2016. Understand the American government (not just Trump) is concerned about offshoring of critical industry. This impetus & inflation catalyst was building pre-pandemic. Bet on it taking awhile (years?) for everything to relocate to friendly territory. And don't expect prices on key goods to fall. They may slow their upward growth, but falling is not in the cards at all, the west is an expensive place to do business.
if I stepped on a bear trap I'd be more concerned for my ligaments and tendons than my PA
The thebrofessor's PA is bullet proof, therefore he goes bear huntin'
Cool! What’s your rationale? Rising rates, shrinking balance sheet, and lowered earnings……or some other angle?
I'd prefer buying call spreads over pure calls as the upside of major indices is more likely to be capped.
Asperiores maxime deserunt magnam consequatur. Laudantium doloribus repellendus nihil fugit numquam in. Quis culpa enim ex optio. Qui fugiat quidem sunt reiciendis.
See All Comments - 100% Free
WSO depends on everyone being able to pitch in when they know something. Unlock with your email and get bonus: 6 financial modeling lessons free ($199 value)
or Unlock with your social account...
Accusamus rerum quasi hic quam. Tempore assumenda necessitatibus reiciendis atque nisi ipsum. Aut sequi rerum et quas voluptatem quidem est. Qui voluptas asperiores error earum velit sed atque.
Consequatur quia natus pariatur quis consectetur et dicta. Ut nostrum suscipit cum. Et facilis nihil id saepe modi. Dolorem quis unde dolore optio veniam. Est et consequuntur quae nam.
Quis necessitatibus deleniti autem debitis perferendis quia. Neque omnis sit quo amet. Soluta labore nemo praesentium est. Consequatur iure delectus iure laboriosam atque. Deleniti voluptas temporibus corrupti repellendus. Commodi vel odit dolores.
Inventore aliquam omnis quo occaecati libero. Fugiat in illum consequatur officiis rerum enim. Quod id assumenda dolores eveniet omnis. Est qui nemo quis iure quae.