SpaceX
Rumored IPO at $1.5T+ valuation next year based off estimated $25B FY26 revenue, which is about ~70% YoY growth
Near-term addressible TAM includes (#1) global telecommunications and (#2) near-monopoly on rocket launch. Long-term addressible TAM includes (#3) Mars colonization, (#4) asteroid mining, (#5) AI data centers in space, (#6) zero gravity manufacturing, (#7) solar energy harvesting
For potential retail bidders, SpaceX is quite literally "a rocketship" going "to the moon". SpaceX is of significant size and scale, it will likely be quickly included in relevant indexes such as S&P500, creating large forced buying of stock. I've seen tweets comparing SpaceX to modern East India Company that at its peak controlled 50% of global commerce
What are peoples thoughts on valuation / IPO attractiveness?
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Based on the most insightful WSO content, here's a breakdown of the SpaceX IPO discussion:
Valuation and Growth: A rumored $1.5T valuation with $25B FY26 revenue implies a Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio of 60x. While this is aggressive, it reflects the market's confidence in SpaceX's near-monopoly in rocket launches and its potential to dominate global telecommunications. However, such high multiples are typically reserved for companies with massive growth potential and disruptive technology, which SpaceX arguably embodies.
Addressable Market (TAM):
Index Inclusion and Retail Demand: If SpaceX is included in major indexes like the S&P 500 post-IPO, it could trigger substantial institutional and retail buying. The "rocketship" narrative and Elon Musk's cult-like following will likely drive retail enthusiasm, but this could also lead to volatility.
Comparison to East India Company: While the comparison is hyperbolic, it underscores SpaceX's potential to dominate multiple industries. However, investors should be cautious about overestimating its ability to execute on all fronts simultaneously.
Risks:
IPO Attractiveness: For growth-oriented investors, SpaceX represents a unique opportunity to invest in a company with unparalleled vision and market potential. However, value investors might find the valuation excessive, especially given the speculative nature of its long-term TAM.
In summary, SpaceX's IPO could be a landmark event, but potential investors should weigh the high valuation against the company's execution risks and speculative growth prospects. For retail investors, it might be a "to the moon" story, but caution and due diligence are essential.
Sources: VC startup idea - PE or VC interest? Are these numbers viable?, Are we at peak pod shop?, How Quick will it Snap ? Valuation of SnapChat, Long TSLA
I sincerely doubt that SpaceX IPOs at that price. One of the fun things about going public is that it requires lots of disclosures about performance which private companies, especially growth/tech companies, usually hate giving.
I also don't see why Mr Musk would be super interested in diluting his control in another venture. At some point he exposes himself to investors who will be upset as to why he gets gigantic pay packages for doing nothing in particular for any of these firms.
Yeah you're right, Elon has never done anything at Tesla / SpaceX ever! He's such a masterful puppetmaster that he's managed to ride along multi-trillion mkt cap value creation just by tweeting, while fooling all the real geniuses into running all the businesses, organizing all the deals, scaling production, and basically building the company. He probably has a 50 IQ too right, kind of like you?
Man, if Elon can build (oh sorry, I mean just get lucky into tricking all the real execs into doing everything while Elon just drools and eats candy in the background) several multi trillion dollar companies and other 100+bl companies, then anyone can including you Ozy!
Ozy -- you are the very definition of a sad, jealous clown
So your honest opinion is that Elon Musk is actively running every company in which he's involved? I don't understand this point of view. Was he doing that while he was running DOGE?
How do you even find the time to type, when you're so busy fellating the guy? He's running what? Several different companies, all at once? Even assuming he literally never sleeps, he's only logically spending a few hours a day at each enterprise. So definitionally he is simply hiring talented executives and letting them run these businesses.
I absolutely think that if you handed someone several hundred million dollars, a Twitter account, and immunity from any criminal activity, they could do what Mr Musk has done.
It boils down to this. Either Mr Musk is running all his companies, or he's running none of them. If it's the former, where does he find the time? Literally not enough hours in the day.
"Elon has never done anything at Tesla / SpaceX ever!"
What specific things has Elon done at Tesla and SpaceX?
You are a self admitted cuckhold, why would anyone on this forum or in life take advice from a man who lets bulls tag team his wife? And then hating on a man who is far more successful than you could ever be? You are so pathetic it’s ridiculous
You are self admitted that you let bulls ream your wife, why in the world would anyone take anything you say seriously? And then bashing on a man who is way more successful than you could ever be? You are so pathetic that it’s just sad
How do you define success? His mostly-fictional net worth? Yeah, I don't think I'll ever be "worth" hundreds of billions of dollars of paper gains.
What percentage of your posts on this website would you say are about cuckholding, using very specific in-group terms that I can't imagine anyone outside of that world would use? I had to google what a "bull" was. Who talks like that?
Literally every time I see a post on WSO about cuckholding, I look up to see it was written by halifax. Beyond fucking weird.
Any updates??? Lmaooo
At this point people should just tithe Elon a portion of every cent they make. He certainly isn’t earning it by any sane metrics.
I was wrong. Lets see where it ends up, though, when the lockups start burning off.
I'll also note that the the fundamental conditions of the IPO aren't the same as they were 5 months ago, given the rule changes everyone has made to accommodate Mr Musk.
Ozzy you are a complete and utter waste of time. One can see through you like glass.
What does that even mean? How does "seeing through me like glass" mean anything about whether my opinions are worthwhile or well evidenced?
Is this the extent of your literacy? Because if so, I'll gladly sit here and be insulted by the likes of you. Your intelligence seems to have peaked at about the level of binge watching Spongebob.
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