Trump announced he’s running in 2024
Kinda crazy to hear, interested to get everyone’s thoughts on this.
also please keep it civil so mods don’t nuke the thread.
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The party needs a more moderate candidate, the majority won’t go for a second round of Trump. Glenn Youngkin is ideal
While we're in agreement that a more moderate Republican is needed, not too sure that Youngkin would be a good choice. I think a 2028 run or a 2024 VP position would be far more likely for him. Having worked under the guy in the past, I'm also not 100% confident in his ability to lead. He's a pushover.
He's smart as fuck, obviously, but he doesn't have the relevant political tenure needed to maneuver the playing field in a way that's good. Obviously, Trump had no political experience so one could make that argument, but look at where that got us. I've been pretty vocal about the notion that I'm an anti-Trump Republican... yes, we still do exist!
I don't know enough about DeSantis to comment. It's too early. The Republican's REAL threat is unity. The issue here is that Trump 'has' to be the RNC-backed nominee, or he'll go apeshit. This will divide the notion between MAGA types and normal-Conservative types. While I still think there's more of the latter overall (the former are just so loud, LOL), the Democrats will reign victorious as we'll be split completely. Look at spread ratios for the 2020 Presidential vs 2021 Gubernatorial and 2022 Midterm elections. Republicans in '21 and '22 won in a lot more districts that were previously won by Biden's '20 run - this tells me that a lot of independents and moderate Republicans voted for Biden in '20, purely BECAUSE they didn't like Trump.
Politics are just fucking insane now. It embodies everyone's personality, all the time. I work in DC, trust me - you can't go five minutes without hearing some crap being spewed from either side. It's just getting exhausting. I wish we had two semi-normal mid-50s people running. I'd get a lot more excited then. But honestly, it's so early to announce right now that I don't know. I wonder if Trump announced earlier than most due to anything DOJ-related, although I'd guess it has to do more with name recognition.
If Republicans choose Trump as their nominee, they deserve to lose in 2024. I'll say it up front. Likewise, if Democrats choose to run Biden or God forbid Kamala or something, then they deserve to lose as well. The more I think about it, the more I wonder if 2024 is literally going to be a 2020 rematch. Fucking hell, both of these guys are one fall away from death at any given point.
I don’t get why people are surprised Trump is running again. He goes around talking at other Rep rallies all the time... Anyways, I think liberals would protest to the likes of George Floyd 2020 riots if Trump were ever put into office again, so hopefully he doesn’t win the Rep nom. If DeSantis doesn’t get the Rep nom I will be disappointed. I would consider voting for John Kennedy, David Schweikert, Tom Cotton, Josh Hawley, and Rand Paul as well
I will admit I can’t say I have much hope for the future when PA elected a guy that should be being spoon fed Campbells and re-learning phonics. He is going to get bodied on the floor though - I can’t wait
I should really stop caring about politics though and just watch SpongeBob and I’d be a hell of a lot happier
This is not surprising at all, but the Republicans really should be putting DeSantis forward. The only reason Biden is in office is because people went to the polls to vote against Trump. I may not agree with all the guy’s policies, but lots of young people spoke about how they admired, or were inspired by, Obama, have you heard ANYONE say that about Biden/Harris? No. Trump can definitely find a way to lose again, and I’m not saying DeSantis would be a slam dunk, but certainly won’t generate the outrage Trump will.
Yeah DeSantis > Trump
Trump running is the only chance the dems have of winning presidency in 2024. The January 6th ads would be playing non stop, as they should be. Repubs should do every thing they can to stop this guy from running
I somewhat agree with you.
Yeah, there is no reason to take the risk. I am not sure how it works but I am confident the RNC has some tools it can use to prevent him from running
Meh, this stuff is controlled by powers above me. I have my vote and my opinions, but wasting my breath to worry about who which side will run or what the impending results will be just isn’t it for me at this stage of my life
Who cares about that old orange boomer
"Trump won 74,222,958 votes, or 46.8 percent of the votes cast. That’s more votes than any other presidential candidate has ever won, with the exception of Biden."
why is it surprising. He's been teasing it for ages. Within his personality too - dude's an old dog who won't back down no matter what lol. Poor approval ratings for Biden suggest a swing towards the Republicans
I've been a DeSantis for President man since 2021. I was at a crypto conference in October in D.C. talking up DeSantis to my MAGA friends, and they were open-minded but resistant. For me, I don't view the political parties as ideological nor do I view the candidates from a position of personal loyalty. The Republican Party and the Democratic Party are nothing more than vessels for a coalition of people to pass public policy, and the individual candidates are basically the same--vessels for achieving public policy aims. If any individual becomes a hindrance to achieving those goals then he or she should be dumped. The Trump-led GOP has lost--badly--in three straight election cycles (2018, 2020, 2022); we now have more than enough evidence that he is a hindrance to achieving conservative policy aims. Therefore, Trump must be dumped. There's nothing deeper to it than that. If Trump were a winner, I could deal with his garbage. He's not a winner.
Its going to be another 2020 rematch which is beyond disgraceful. This is why the system is absolutely f**ked IMO.
I think this shows a parliamentary system is far better. You get a far wider range of candidates and its easier to get rid of them (Lizz Truss 45 days).
I think the quality of people at the top level of politics in the US and the length of time they have all been there is crazy. Biden, Harris, Pelosi, Trump, McConnell, etc - in any other developed economy these people would have disappeared from public life years ago.
Chances to win out of the most likely nominees
DeSantis > Biden > Newsom > Trump > Harris
The nightmare scenario is Trump loses the Republican nomination and runs third party. This is the only scenario where I see someone like Harris, Bernie, Warren, etc., winning.
A big problem in the 2016 primaries was no consolidated support (donors and voters) behind any candidate. Bush was the initial favorite, but it was pretty easy to tie him to his brother and father, who left office as widely unpopular Presidents. This opened the door for Trump to ride his solid minority support to the nomination. I think this time around, DeSantis is a clear alternative that the party can rally behind. Stephen Schwarzman and Ken Griffin have both said they are 'done' with Trump, with Griffin openly supporting DeSantis. It's going to be an ugly divorce between the party and Trump, but I think the lack of a red wave in 2022 will make it much easier.
A wild card is Dems supporting Trump in the primaries with the hopes of having an easier general election. There were millions spent on getting MAGA candidates to beat more centrist republicans in the mid-terms for the same reason. It is rather disgusting, honestly. People who claim MAGA is a threat to democracy then turn around and spend millions on their campaigns.
Wow, these are 100% my thoughts as well. I’m actually genuinely concerned that Dems will enter GOP primaries to vote for Trump. And to your point, Trump was thrust onto us by the atrocious primary system where you can win with 30% of the vote. I really wish the GOP would change its primary to ranked-choice so we could get a consensus candidate with more delegate weight given to swing states (measured by how close they were in the prior race).
Eh, they did this in 7 races, and all 7 races were won by Democrats over the unelectable Republican. Playing with fire no doubt, but it worked beautifully. As a Democrat, I want the party to get Dems elected - not moderate Republicans. Not sure I'm as comfortable with that trade re: Trump...
They spent big money in GOP primaries for governor of Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Maryland and in the Senate race in New Hampshire. This isn't like they were spending money in races on dog catcher. To then turn around and say that electing these people is a literal threat to the foundations of American democracy is the most cynical, underhanded, unethical horsesh*t I've ever witnessed in American politics, which is saying something.
I think Desantis is the only republican that has a chance to win in 2024, he seems politcally smart and a capable leader, although I think he lacks a bit of charisma. The midterms showed how much hate people have for everything and everyone associated with Trump. Even with the inflation, exploding crime, woke insanity spreading like cancer , insane covid policies, still sane dems and independents vote for more of this craziness.
The Roe wade stuff didn't help either, weaponized by the MSM which blew it way out of proportion with stuff like they are coming for your birth control next etc. Also the weak candidates, but how can a sane person vote for Fetterman, a trust fund marxist that literally has brain damage and can't put a sentence together.
Very curious how this is gonna play out, I think smart republicans know that Trump has no chance to win but there is a rather large group of Trump die hard fans within the republican base, so they can't just get rid of him.
From now and to the primaries GOP is going to try their hardest to dump Trump, and rally behind DeSantis. DeSantis said that he wouldn't run if Trump ran, but tbh - this is his chance. 2028 is going to be way too late for him.
But we all know damn well that Trump is too vain to quit, and too afraid of any potential prosecution. He's going to hold the GOP hostage, reminding them that his army of hardcore voters will jump when he tells them to jump.
DeSantis will probably run, and 90% of republicans will show support, and actively work against Trump.
Trump, in a narcissistic rage, will run as independent and siphon voters - out of pure spite. He'll burn down the GOP before admitting loss.
To be honest, the only way republicans have a fighting chance is if Trump croaks or becomes incapacitated from something serious. He could run from a jail cell and still convince certain people to vote for him. The man has to be in a deep coma to cease being a threat.
FWIW, DeSantis never said this. This is a fabrication by MAGA people on the internet. Somebody started saying this and now you see MAGA people repeating this everywhere.
Thanks everyone for sharing some good insights and keeping it civil.
Haven’t kept up with politics much recently so was genuinely curious to hear some intelligent opinions from people on the board who have been paying attention to this stuff.
hopefully the primaries go well and the GOP doesn’t descend into chaos over it. Also, will be interesting to see what the democrats do. Maybe Biden won’t run uncontested? I think it’s happened before in history but could be mistaken.
I think it's a mistake for the GOP and could cost them the election. A lot of us moderate Democrats are fed up with the direction the party has taken and would vote for a moderate Republican, but not a (to put it nicely) "character" like Trump.
I'm done with the GOP. McTurtle and McCarthy were culprits for the bad midterms as they withheld money from MAGA candidates. In the same way they tried crushing the Tea Party they're doing it with Trump. AND The GOP coward congress decided to re-elect them into congressional power. Wow, haven't they learned their lesson? There is no hope in the GOP, and I'm voting Trump (for either GOP or independent) just to see the party collapse, like the Whig party, and start from scratch.
Delusional. Trump candidates failed across-the-board in House, Senate, and gubernatorial elections. At what point does the MAGA base accept the fact that Trump is not a political winner and stop blaming others?
Literally never
DeSantis should NOT run this yr if he wants to be president at some point. Trump will thoroughly destroy his image so much that most of his base will forever dislike DeSantis. Better for DeSantis to let Trump run again -- if he wins, great because DeSantis can run at the next cycle or the one after that. If he loses, well Trump is old enough that there's a good chance he won't be alive come next cycle anyway
For DeSantis the polling suggests that Trump would edge him out as the nominee, no point for DeSantis to let his image be permanently tainted among the base he needs at some point to become president. He should sit this one out for the sake of his presidential ambitions. Only tough thing is that he has a ton of momentum right now, that's what throws a wrench in to this equation of running vs. waiting (if he waits he'll probably get Trump's blessing as well for the next cycle)
This is your first real bad political take. It’s now or never for DeSantis. In 2028 DeSantis will be the former governor of Florida. He will never be more popular in the Republican Party than he is now. He literally has nothing to lose by running in 2024. In the 2028 cycle he will be yesterday’s news and a former governor. He will absolutely not win the 2028 nomination in an open primary with sitting governors and Senators.
Also, DeSantis has a VERY good chance of defeating Trump. Early polls are meaningless; that said, early polls have DeSantis beating Trump in NH, IA, GA, and FL.
Fair enough, I think it's a crystal ball in a lot of ways. You rightly point out this is the time when the iron's hot for DeSantis but I'm more concerned that even though he may be the better General candidate, he may not make it there given the fervor of Trump's base. Dunno what happens man
Trump is fun and shakes things up, that makes him my choice, if I could vote. In the end, Democracy is just a big circus for the hoi polloi - and I prefer clowns to puppets in the circus.
Trump and my own political leanings aside, it's my opinion that Desantis's national ability to win an election over a number of non-Kamala dems (I don't think Biden will run again) is overstated for the following reasons:
Nearly every single word you say here is wrong, either strategically or factually. For one, DeSantis won re-election by 1.5 million votes. That’s 1.1 million votes more than the influx of out of state people as Covid refugees and 1.1 million people more than he won by in 2018, so your math doesn’t work. Secondly, DeSantis was popular because of his response to Covid, not his stance on Disney or his September Martha’s Vineyard stunt, hence the 400,000 new Floridians. Third, the Democrats gave up on Florida because they correctly understood they were going to get demolished by a popular governor—that’s to DeSantis’ credit, not to his discredit as a national candidate. Fourth, DeSantis’ response to natural disasters has been heralded, so I have no idea what you’re talking about. Finally, the fact that you think Gretchen Whitmer is a good national candidate is hilarious and totally discredits your analysis. She’s an incompetent dingbat like Kathy Hochul in New York but benefits by being in a fairly solidly blue state, but she was really helped by her opponent being a Trump-aligned candidate. DeSantis as the nominee has the innate post of not being a Trump-aligned candidate, as nearly all Trump 2022 candidates did poorly in competitive races. Even so, Whitmer won nearly the exact same 54-43 in 2022 as she did in 2018, i.e., she didn't expand her vote really much at all.
You’re telling me only 400,000 new residents moved to Florida from 2018? Seems inaccurate.
anyway, I think you’ve missed my real point, which centered on winning MI/PA/WI plus 1 of NV/GA/AZ. That’s it, that’s the election.
Does DeSantis have a shot? sure he does, but his popularity is driven by people who would never vote democratic. The Dem bench does appeal to those marginal voters in key states - white women mostly in my view. Similar to how blue state democrats have a hard time understanding why anyone would vote for Trump, the republicans have an awful ability to understand non-southern white women.
this type of response, very Carlson-esque, focuses on appeal to the base, and is exactly why Republicans underperformed when literally everything was pointed their way in ‘22. You’re thinking about running up the score where it does not matter, not actually winning.
It’s a huge liability, in addition to the Trump factor , for DeSantis.
Can we please get a normal Mitt Romney type Republican again... wtf man
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