Trump-cession?
The Atlanta Fed updated their GDPNow forecast for Q1 Real GDP growth today and it might be one of the single biggest drop in the history of the model.
The previous estimate for Q1 was 2.3%. Today they forecast -1.5%, largely driven by a collapse in consumer spending and a massive shift in net exports. This is pretty clearly a result of the uncertainty around tariffs and Federal policy driving business to ramp up exports ahead of likely taxes and consumer fears of price increases.
My question to you all is: does this shift indicate a likely recession by year end?
If so, is this recession entirely Trump's fault, or could we call it a Musk-cession given the impacts on employment from government layoffs?
Additionally, what will a recession driven by trade wars mean for the financial community?
Lastly, to those of you that voted Trump: is this what you would call winning? If so, when will you be tired of it?
This was the Covid recession we put off by printing all that money. The bill was always due. The real economy has been in a nosedive for years.
Don't get why you're getting MS, this is objectively correct. If you adjusted for government spending real GDP growth has been nearly flat/slightly negative for a couple of years now.
thank you. 7 monkey shits for telling the truth is nuts
I personally think the market is long overdue for a correction. Some industries will always have tailwinds though even in down-markets. Just hedge your bets carefully.
Overdue for a correction in risk assets vs a contraction in the real economy is a huge disconnect .. .
Most economists said Trump would be worse than Kamala for the economy. Republicans tend to be worse for the economy/markets. Not that out of the ordinary.
And yea the fed lay offs will be a big deal.
lmao
This isn't remotely controversial.
https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/historical-puzzle-us-economic-…
https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/democrats/2024/10/the-u-s-e…
https://theconversation.com/the-us-stock-market-does-better-under-democ…
https://funds-europe.com/us-stock-market-outperforms-under-democrats-da…
https://www.axios.com/2024/10/23/harris-trump-nobel-prize-economists
https://www-cbsnews-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.cbsnews.com/amp/news…
This isn't new information, there's a reason why Republicans attack experts and argue against fact checking.
Repubs like inheriting growing economies, unfortunately they don’t always like to leave them that way for the next one. Sadly Americans these days are so divided that the Trumpets are so deep in his ass they can’t critically assess anything he does
Pissed off at him for the foreign policy shenanigans, but if he's able to cool the economy by reducing the deficit and cutting wasteful spending, opening the door to lower rates, that would be chill frfr no cap.
I mean if we look at his track record from his previous time in office. He, at most, will move money around to line up the pockets of business oligarchs that he's trying to sway favour for. The most recent studies indicating the exagerated cost savings of government spending and blatant corruption with Tesla contracts very clearly tells that he just doens't give a sh*t.
The facts are there for anyone to Google or ChatGPT now...
During Donald Trump's first term (January 2017 – January 2021), the U.S. national debt increased significantly. Here are the key figures:
I have no clue why people assume he's operating in good faith or has any plan outside of self-interest. Ignoring his words and the commentary from politically fueld content, just look at the policies passed and the net impact during his first term. It couldn't be more obvious that he's just doing whatever the hell he wants and it just happens to benefit the economy from time to time.
Yeah I have zero confidence in his intentions, just hoping all of the people around him steer him in the direction of actually implementing sizable cuts. I'm just thinking that his ambition to create a SWF for his legacy will result in more fiscal responsibility.
Trump doesn’t have the brains and attention span to do a good job with the economy. He’s not even going to make the effort. Stupidest president ever.
I knew his foreign policy would be absolutely awful but the one thing he's good for is markets.
And even that is being called into question here.
Why does the US like electing old men well past retirement age?
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