When will we return to normal?
And by normal I mean how things were circa March 2020 not just everything opens up back up , everyone still wearing masks and frantically nervous that the person behind them in Starbucks is 5.8ft behind them not 6ft.
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June 21
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Been open already in most states
Gotta love Texas. We have been drinking at bars since last summer
Abbott just lifted statewide mask mandate and announced that capacity restrictions are going out too!
I'm going to put a wild guess and say around April-May in the US. We're supposed to have over 100mm vaccine doses available by the end of March and the J&J vaccine just got approved. That being said, the anti-vax people could throw a wrench into this if cities are worried about that.
The anti-vaxxers are annoying, but I just don't understand how their resistance SHOULD make any kind of a difference. If I'm vaccinated and you're vaccinated, why do we care if an anti-vaxxer isn't vaccinated? If they want to risk it, how does that negatively impact us? Why should the rest of society remain closed?
If there were one or two antivaxxers out there, I wouldn't be worried. But some ~15% of healthcare workers are refusing the vaccine. Some 50% of military members are hesitant around the vaccine. While there isn't enough data yet to indicate how much of the wider populace of America is going to resist the vaccine, it isn't a good sign. Even 15% of all Americans would be disastrous. For you or me, getting sick may not be on our list if we get the vaccine. But a lot of states like California would use that 15% as ammo for having businesses closed down longer and it may delay parts of our society from getting back to normal (like elementary schools, where the students can't get the vaccine.)
April/May seems a bit aggressive depending on the state we're talking about; I definitely don't see the mask mandate in NY or CA for example being lifted by then. However by the end of the summer? I could see that.
Perhaps I should provide a bit of color. I live in a large city in Texas. Vaccine roll-out seem fine here, if you're phase 1A or 1B it's pretty easy to receive the vaccine since CVS, HEB, and Walmart are all doing vaccinations. If you aren't in any of those groups, volunteering at a FEMA site for 15 hours gives you access to the vaccine which is what my dad is doing. I personally got the vaccine very early due to being part of the medical trial. So perhaps that explains my rosy view lol.
guessing the following
end of Q2 - most states will have indoor dining and bars at over 70% capacity as vaccine rollout continues, international travel restrictions ease, but reentry doesn't
end of Q3 - reentry restrictions ease, most states lift mandatory mask requirements but Biden doesn't lift for air travel and federal buildings, full capacity in some states for dining, all kids back to in person learning
end of Q4 - flu season in full force, some states reinstate mask mandates and remote learning, but only a handful
now, I think we'll be ready to reopen yesterday, but knowing how governors have been, they're going to want to wait a few months before fully reopening, they like that power
we'll see, plenty of places you can still travel to today, so I've been getting after it, hopping on a plane at least quarterly for vacation and won't stop that unless I'm literally prohibited from doing so.
What vacation spots have you gone to / considered (other than Miami / Tulum where it seems everyone has been)?
where I've been - chicago over summer, miami late fall, baja early winter, western caribbean a couple weeks ago. next trip is southern caribbean mid-spring most likely, and then central america in late summer.
all of this assumes Europe isn't trending towards reopening. if it is and shit is actually open, I'll go for at least 2 weeks in late summer/early fall.
until Biden put on the negative test for re entry, I was considering going back to Mexico as well as Morocco, Panama, Colombia, and Guatemala. I don't know if I could get a test and have the results back from any of those places in time for my return. right now, parts of caribbean are the only places I've seen some organization around it all. plus, I'm the adventure traveler, wifey is more chillin-umbrella drink sippin type of traveler, so I got my adventure in western caribbean, will get some more in central america or Morocco, so this next trip will be just straight chill
I check this website on a pretty regular basis as well as google flights to figure out my next move - https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/us-international-travel-covid-19/ind…
when joe finds his cane
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I find your constant bashing of liberals to be annoying, but in this instance, it's actually kind of true. I, in good faith, genuinely believe there is a not-insignificant contingent of people who are going to resist to the bitter end any re-opening of society and the end of masking. I think there is a sizeable portion of society who feels some form of...I don't know, moral cause(?) in their personal fight against Covid (despite there being kind of little-to-mixed evidence in support of their behavior).
Any pandemic is a nerd's wildest dream. Socialization is optional (and perhaps shameful.) Remote work and contact-less delivery is ubiquitous. You can shame people throwing parties, instead of silently seething like before.
Not to mention Cuomo is a little tied up right now and probably was advised to keep his mouth shut on anything and everything.
+1 SB. Totally agree. There seem to be some people who are subconsciously really enjoying controlling others. They would never admit it to your face....might not even admit it to themselves, but it's hard to explain some of the behavior that I've seen otherwise.
Newsom and Cuomo already have their heads on the chopping block, they're not going to risk f**king up their political careers anymore than they already have. In my opinion their political careers are already over but they could still be in denial. As soon as the recall started to gain traction California started opening back up.
I dont suspect this ending until next year. There's a stronger variant going around, and current vaccine doesnt provide protection against it.
There’s been a new variant in the news every week now for the past three months starting with the UK and there has been no changes.
That being said, I don’t expect things to get back to fully normal until somewhere around summer of 2022. Here’s the problem, there has been a decent amount of people who have had the vaccine yet people are behaving the same as they did before. Most firms still aren’t even back in the office at all, even at low occupancy.
True, but its skewed towards old people and healthcare (with a few younger at risk people thrown in). Not exactly the profile of your typical banker.
Weirdly, as the vaccine rolls out, I've seen even tighter restrictions/adherence to the "rules". Maybe nobody wants to be the last prisoner to die before liberation from Auschwitz.
Actually, they do. Pfizer, for example, protects against the UK and South African variant almost as well as the regular strain. Moderna protects against UK and SA but not quite as well. J&J protects about as well against the strains as the typical flu vaccine, but prevents serious illness.
Lmao, it's already back to normal in Florida basically (Tampa)
I live outside Boston and it seems as if everybody basically gave up after Thanksgiving. Other than people wearing masks out in Public you couldn't tell the difference between now and Pre-COVID.
I met a guy at the bar last night from Boston - he said you can't even go out for dinner there. Guessing that's just in the city? Regardless, sounds absolutely miserable.
I think masking is one of the worst aspects of Covid. I'm not against masking, per se (ya know, if it works). But it is dystopian. I haven't seen the face of a stranger in 8 or 9 months. This is societally eroding. I don't consider any life back to normal until the masks come off.
I think we may never go back entirely. I hope I'm wrong about that, but I'm not optimistic.
COVID has mainstreamed the idea that everyone's responsible for preventing the spread of respiratory viruses. This wasn't really a thing in the past, except during a few brief periods, and in specific places like hospitals and nursing homes filled with unhealthy people. Those exceptions aside, there wasn't a strong sense that people were morally obligated to limit close interactions to prevent infection.
Hypothetical Scenario:
It's 2023 and COVID has been eradicated. But it's the winter, and there's a worse-than-average flu going around. Joe goes to a Chicago Bulls game. There's a sellout crowd and he sits next to Bob. Bob has been feeling slightly under the weather but has shrugged it off since it hasn't been too bad. He sniffles occasionally during the game and suppresses a couple of coughs. Turns out that he has the flu.
Joe catches the flu from Bob and brings it home. His elderly mother Sue lives with him. She catches it from him and dies.
In this scenario, how much moral and legal responsibility for Sue's death do the following parties have?
Before 2020, it wouldn't even have occurred to most people to blame any of these parties, or to pursue any legal action against them. Now I think it's going to be open season for lawsuits, and people are going to become way more risk averse.
You are spot on, and it's complete bullshit. You can apply the "butterfly effect" of liability to anything and anyone, and COVID is setting a dangerous precedent.
1H 2022
We’ll have herd immunity by April so fully dependent on when the leftist overlords decide to fuck right off with their bullshit. Also not excited to see the 10 year implications of pumping an ungodly amount of unnecessary stimulus into the economy
The thing people who ask this question don't seem to get is that government (and I mean this as a broad gesture towards all governments, not just my own in the US) is never going to happily just give up all this control it's been handed under the pretense of an emergency. Keep in mind if it were Fauci's call we wouldn't be getting back to normal till 2023, lest we forgot this oracle of truth started out the pandemic telling us masks didn't help and that we wouldn't have a vaccine till 2022 at the earliest. The current federal government will delay for as long as possible giving the OK to people to return back to regular life. When enough people just start doing it anyway (which I believe will happen once enough people are vaccinated) the government will just act like it had the idea first and follow along, probably spouting out arbitrary guidelines about maintaining safety or some shit like that.
The ultra wealthy and powerful (3 commas & politically-tied families, not your regular multi-millionaire tech & finance schmucks) have only consolidated more of both over the last year thanks to these lockdowns. On top of that, they've gotten to see first hand just how ridiculous the instructions from authority can be and yet still get followed by millions. Let's recap just a few of the conflicting trains of thought from the current MSM + admin:
If you're expecting rich bureaucrats to give a clear and concise signal as to when the rest of us plebs gets to go back to managing their own lives and making their own decisions, you're naively hopeful.
Haha, this is so true. And you could add so many more things to this list.
A weird and disturbing aspect of the pandemic has been this progressive hive mind in action. It's fascinating to watch as some talking point pops up and spreads instantly, as if by magic, among the crowd of goodthinkers. Immediately anyone who questions it is against Science, an idiot, evil, etc. Later that position is replaced by a different one, which is also Science. The old position is quietly discarded. No one ever apologizes for it or gains any epistemic humility from the experience. They don't even seem to remember that there was another position; they have this collective amnesia that keeps them arrogant.
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Yep, the state will never willingly relinquish power. This is a classic maneuver by the gov. to take more power. You declare a state of exception/emergency, and consolidate more power. You claim it is for the public good, but it's just about power. Dems and Republicans both do it. The two examples that immediately come to mind in America are COVID and increased surveillance post 9/11.
The establishment arms of both parties are a cancer that is draining society at large. Our entire foriegn aid system is just a way to peddle influence and disguise bribes that will go right into the bank accounts of contractors or foreign heads of state, made using taxes that will be imposed on our great-great grandchildren. The 4/5 of the wealthiest zip codes in the country are in Virginia, surrounding DC. These are political elites who live in a bubble ruling over the rest of the country by abusing the Federal system at this point, nothing more. Here's a great interview one of my favorite authors and Anarchists, Michael Malice, with former US House Rep from MI Justin Amash. He lays it out pretty matter of fact that our government today is mostly a dog and pony show that has most of its legislation prewritten by lobbyists.
And people look at me like im a total conspiracy wingnut when i say this.
I'm not even against wearing masks, fuck it, its not that big of a deal until we get vaccinated.
But at this point 0 businesses should be closed - lets take a leaf from florida's book
I've been on WSO a lot--I've seen a lot of posts. This, sir, is the best post I've personally seen on WSO.
Oh shush you 🤭
Member when it used to be cool to hate the State? I member.
Follow the science, unless the science differs from our view, then just ignore it.
Women are underpaid compared to men. Also all men can be women simply by declaring it so. Figure that one out with your "science" lmao
The progression of the media's coverage of NY state's Covid response has been fascinating to watch
Fascinating and disturbing to put it lightly
The thing I’m most curious about is, what’s the turning point for people to finally actually move toward getting back to normal? For the people who are still terrified for their lives, do they expect cases to reach zero? Is it wide spread readily available vaccines? Is there a target daily case number where people just say “Ok we are good to go”?
The people who are really focused on case counts are going to have a hard time
Like Fauci said, a vaccine that is only 95% effective is still 5% ineffective. That 5% should dictate public policy--indefinite masking until there are effectively zero cases.
Yaaaaass! Lockdowns until ALL diseases are cured! One is too many!
It depends on the state. I think that some states will never truly return to "normal" meaning prior to 2019. Others are more or less normal now. I think where I am from, NY, we will be wearing masks for years to come, capacity limits, things like that. The narrative will never really stop. Now it is: "we don't know if you can transmit the virus or not even if you are vaccinated." In that case we should probably just give up entirely on earth.
Also, someone here brought it up but I think that it is largely overlooked. What happens when people find out how many die in a bad flu season? 300-700k worldwide die from the flu annually. I know that this is 'different' but I think people are going to become hyperaware of things that they were previously not (half mm dying of flu every year). The precedent has been set that the government can literally shut down businesses, take away peoples' livelihoods...I do not think this is the last time we are going to see this happen. The largest donors to politicians have done really well from this and I don't think there is much pressure to get back on track. The new state bailouts offer even less incentive for states to get their shit together.
Giving governors full control of their states with zero checks and balances e.g Cuomo was not the way things were designed. It has been a year now and he still rules by decree. He creates color-coded zones where people can open their businesses, where others can work, where children can go to school, etc etc. Not good.
Like June.
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Like June. The pandemic has served its purpose and emperor Biden has saved us all, as he blows past his vaccine goals and carries us to economic prosperity
I think it's more granular, state level. Some of the governors really buy into lockdowns, to the point where they're willing to trash their economies and the livelihoods of those they govern. Florida is pretty much openly mocked in the media and by lib governors and yet their numbers are better across the board than places like NY/CA AND their kids are in school, businesses are open at full capacity, the list goes on. I have lived in both places during the pandemic and am currently in Florida. The difference in the handling of this is unbelievable.
This has been playing out for a year, the CDC said they are ok with children going back to school, FL has in-person school options for 99% of their children and they have the 34th lowest rate of pediatric cases (children under 18). It is not about data or science or anything else at this point other than ideology. People who get mad at others for 'glorifying' Florida are in states where lockdowns have failed, the statistics aren't good, schools are closed, massive unemployment. No one wants to wake up from this. We have a real-life, tangible example and society/media glorifies places like NY and CA that have numbers similar to third world countries. We are not operating in reality here. This is way out of Biden's control. There are no checks and balances. Each gov runs their state as their own country with minimal (sometimes no) input from legislators at any level.
I actually laugh out loud when people in CA argue that Newsom is following the science. He’s quite literally ignoring the science. Lockdowns do not work. They only do more harm than good.
I actually laugh out loud when people in CA argue that Newsom is following the science. He’s quite literally ignoring the science. Lockdowns do not work. They only do more harm than good.
I'm genuinely becoming worried. I live in one of those D.C. area counties that is frequently in the news because of iron-clad teachers' union resistance to re-opening schools. But we also have 99(?%) masking outside in the open air (which is not scientifically based). I read an article today in a local-ish paper advocating for indefinite masking because of the asserted reduction in flu cases this year (I say "asserted" because half the world is still kind of closed so that whole causation/correlation thing, ya know). The idea got a lot of praise from the reading community, much to my dismay.
I have a sneaking suspicion that the whole masking thing--in some areas--has become almost religious. One of my close friends is a gay liberal and all of his social media posts are with him in a mask. My other gay friend is running for city council--his campaign shot is him in a mask. It's become THE virtue signal of our generation. I'm really worried that this will never end. To be honest, if it doesn't end, I'm going to move out of the D.C. area. I have barely seen the face of a stranger in 8 months and it's extraordinarily depressing. I can't live my life like this forever, especially when fully vaccinated and Covid is in the past.
I personally think the data that masks are very effective is weak. I’m not saying they don’t work, I just think their data justification is much much weaker than people claim and believe. I was very skeptical in the beginning when Fauci was parading around in a cloth mask. Every doctor knows that a cloth mask is the worst kind of mask. The fact that almost all of these “high profile” people, including most governors, wear cloth masks tells me all I need to know. If they were really that worried, they would all be wearing N-95s (which I do think provide some benefit) and they’re one of the few that actually have access to these.
Then the CDC (which has been a complete and utter disaster) says that “no you have to wear two masks”. Like come on.. Terrible messaging and just sounds ridiculous.
On top of that, you have states/counties with similar populations that have and don’t have mandates following the same exact curves and case numbers.
Let’s not forgot the “CDC mask study” which ended in F*ing October and was published in like January. I just ask to see some evidence in a practical (non laboratory setting) on this effectiveness (factoring in that 90% of America wears cloth masks). Once I see that, I’m willing to be proven wrong, but the fact that I haven’t and it’s been 6 months of this stuff, makes me very very skeptical and the minute the mandates end, I will never wear another one. My dad is a physician and he thinks similar to me. At the beginning of the pandemic, he mentioned that he didn’t think they had an effect but their purpose was to motivate people that their was actually something they could do to help. Somewhat of a motivation type of thing that told people they had control. What really happened was that the government was taking control. Now that they have that control, they won’t give it up. Masking has become a religion for some people and it’s a damn shame that I can’t see anyone’s smile anymore. That’s all, disagree or agree, I just hope things get back to normal soon.
I agree with you 1000%. I would be more sanguine about masking if I thought it provided direct benefits to me/my family or general benefits to society. There are the lab tests, which seem to indicate there is personal benefit, but then I'm seeing the raw data, and I just don't see a strong correlation between mask wearing and reduced cases. If I saw that evidence I'd be much less negative toward masking. Even so, I still think it's horrible for society to not see the face of strangers. To not see the smiles of neighbors. It's really sad. It's eroding.
As someone born and raised in the NJ/NY area and goes to school in DC (and took a consulting job in NJ), this is spot on. The masks are more about virtue signaling than actually stopping the pandemic. My entire family and I have decided to leave NJ/NY once the family business is sold. It's an absolute mess- my mom still cannot watch my brother's outdoor soccer game (fans on the sidelines are too risky I guess) and indoor dinning was just opened for the first time in DC a few weeks ago.
Meanwhile, these mask obsessed kids at my SJW-riddled school are horny af, on tinder and trying to get laid. Is there any chance they are wearing a mask/socially distancing while fucking? Hell no! But they will do anything to prevent a small business from reopening.
This one kid at my school literally (no joke) said that "we need to hold people accountable for not wearing a mask. One slip off the nose can kill someone" but the next day said "You can't blame us for wanting to have sex, despite the pandemic, it's a natural human need."
Oh yeah. My gay friends are having more sex than ever and in private aren't wearing masks. They are taking photos for instagram and facebook to virtue-signal. The problem is, this virtue-signaling has rubbed off on larger society; now the rest of the larger society wears masks EVERYWHERE--as if the air were toxic. Now they are advocating for indefinite masking to stop the flu. These people are crazy. I don't understand this religion.
I totally get you on the idea of virtue signalling people by mask wearing, it kinda reminds me of girls on instagram who never gave a fuck about BLM let alone knowing more than a couple black people suddenly posting pics about how involved they are in the movement for likes. That said I'm in one of those D.C. area liberal havens and I gotta say for every person masking outside there's like 20 others who don't. You might be remembering just the people who mask because they are so unique relative to the rest of people outside. I gotta say though after that April when everything was actually shut down life has basically been 95% normal with the exceptions being gyms are a pain in the ass and no attendance for basketball and baseball which let's face it unless you go religiously you aren't really missing out. Restaurants generally allow for indoor seating unless the owner themselves don't want it so on that front life is normal and bars are open albeit with restricted hours. Parks are open from local to federal levels. A lot of community centers and private clubs where you can do things like chess are open. Religious facilities are open. We can go travel anywhere in the country by airplane, rail, and stay in hotels when we go and the only caveat is just wear a mask when around others. International travel is trickier but that is a function of other country policies not ours. I think with the vaccine coming in and getting to our most vulnerable population at this point we don't really have a place for the shrieking person calling for a full shut down and we should re-open but I am genuinely trying to figure out how we can open up substantially more than we already are. Maybe NYC/SF life is substantially more dystopic but again my experience in the DC liberal echo chamber is that you just need a mask and you can pretty much do whatever indoors and for outdoor stuff you don't even need a mask.
I live in Arlington outside of D.C. I would say nearly everyone (except me) masks up all the time. My neighborhood--one of the nicest in the D.C. area--is an economic mess. Retail vacancies as far as the eye can see. Religious institutions may be open, but services are mostly online. Restaurants, especially during the winter, have been sparsely populated. Bars are in a financial collapse because of orders that don't allow after-10 pm alcohol sales. Everyone is masked up in the gym. No one goes into the office. Schools were totally closed until recently and now are partially open (I think in a week). Even small things are disturbing--I can't use my condo association's elevator if other people not in my household are on it. I have to wear a mask in my own building.
Nothing is normal. Just because something is kind of open doesn't mean things are normal. It's a dystopian mess here. Clean, quiet, peaceful, ruined.
never - and you will like it
One thing I’ve noticed is that all of the government “herd immunity models” don’t seem to factor in people with existing immunity from the virus itself (which NPR had an article saying that most believe it around 100million). That’s part of the reason that John’s Hopkins professor put an article out last week saying in April, we’ll be at herd immunity. I think it’s mighty convenient the government is excluding that from their estimates.
Just throwin' this out there, but that doctor's brother was in my Bible study a few years ago. We're still friendly. I have ACCESS TO POWER!
Seeing a lot of people talking shit on here.. who cares if some people don’t want the vaccine? It’s their responsibility. “Oh they’ll infect other people” - it’s their responsibility too!
And if they infect people who are at risk - those are vaccinated anyway!
How do you know that the protection given by the vaccine won’t wane over time? After all, people take a flu vaccine every year to protect themselves against different variants of the flu virus.
They’re definitely going to force vaccination (already have - see European vaccine passports - lemmings seem to accept these things so easily), and require you to take a Covid shot every year.
it might wane over time and you might need to take it periodically. so, what's your point?
Lol. You kidding right?
These people are already saying masks need to be used even if you’re vaccinated. If you argue they need to be taken yearly, that means we’re using masks forever.
The day the CDC lifts the mask madate
Side remark - why do people get so bothered by wearing a mask in public spaces? I think they're great. I don't get random people's particles (spit) on me and they don't get mine on them, it's great in the winter weather (keeps face warm), and reduces likelihood of catching cold, flu, and other airborne viruses. It does get tiring wearing them on a long flight or train ride, but that's not exactly an everyday occurrence for most people.
There are endless reasons. 1) There actually is no strong evidence that public masking policies actually work. There is evidence in the lab that masks can reduce transmission but outside of the lab, in the field, there is little evidence that they actually do what public health officials claim. 2) They are dehumanizing. I live in an area where virtually everyone masks all the time. It's been 8 months or so since I've seen the face of a stranger (there are a few exceptions here or there). That's terrible for society. I don't want to live in a world where I can't see the smile of a stranger or meet new people. How do you really meet new people in a masked society? 3) They unnecessarily send a signal of fear to the public. We are treating Covid as if the air were toxic. The reality is, the disproportionate impact of Covid is to already sick and weak people, especially the elderly. Masking sends a signal to society that it should live in a state of fear. There is anecdotal evidence, for example, that 2020 has seen record miscarriages, with some hypotheses being high levels of stress are causing it. We should not be signaling such malignant messages to the public, especially when the malignant signal (masking) is of questionable benefit.
I get the dehumanizing aspect and sense of fear that some people may perceive from seeing others wearing mask.
My comment was really more about wearing mask in public places like airplanes, trains, airports, buses, gyms, etc. that tend to be crowded and germs can spread more easily. I would gladly keep wearing a mask in those environments, but maybe I'm an outlier here.
1) glasses always get foggy
2) for some reason my nose is more often starts running (I guess because of humidity inside the mask)
3) you're more likely to get face rushes, pimples
4) esthetically enjoyable to see people's faces. you know if the girl is attractive or not. you can make a better impression on the girl if your face is nice and visible.
5) more difficult to talk and hear the person.
Overall, I'd say masks are necessary for now, so let's keep wearing them until everybody can get vaccinated (until Fall approximately), but then fuck them.
Absolutely - but I would still wear them in some public spaces as per above comment. Obv. Not when walking on the street/beach/trails/whatever. I can't stand mask nazis, but something in between, as is done in certain asian countries, could be a good compromise.
Let me ask you this, have the post-9/11 civil liberty restrictions ever been lifted? Will they ever be lifted?
I think you'll find your answer there.
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Aut inventore dignissimos voluptatem nostrum repellat labore non ullam. Eaque rerum nesciunt nobis deleniti alias. Saepe quibusdam aut ut eum doloribus et est quia. Unde sapiente iusto pariatur reprehenderit voluptates aut corporis nostrum. Praesentium et voluptas qui consectetur qui non pariatur. Suscipit perferendis consequuntur rerum eos.
Laborum deserunt ipsum quibusdam omnis molestiae. Hic facere rerum assumenda deleniti repudiandae odit consectetur. Provident aut id unde molestiae rerum. Incidunt accusantium sed quasi.
Nihil vero sed aut pariatur laboriosam. Ut possimus veritatis itaque nostrum. Sunt at aut qui ullam molestiae. Ut perspiciatis facere et aut. Et repellat illo et suscipit consequatur facilis soluta. Vel vero natus asperiores earum saepe natus quo. Cupiditate ut quidem eveniet recusandae ut.
Maiores qui facilis maiores voluptates nam quibusdam possimus. Atque et ipsam consequatur beatae deserunt vel.