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Analyst 1 in PE - LBOs

Thoma, Vista, Silver Lake, Francisco, and H&F come to mind.

Other MFs have pretty good tech platforms (e.g., WP, Hg) but the names above are generally the best software investors in the space

Some strong players at MM level are Genstar AKKR and Rubicon

Are they screwed because of AI or is that too simple? Public Saas has been crushed…

 

among these top names, which ones are better spots to start at as an associate now and how do you think about evaluating opportunities? seems like Thoma, FP, AKKR have good recent returns and growing fund sizes while Vista, SL, H&F momentum has been slower

 

Silver Lake might be cooked? Directionally, they overindexed to TMT verticals excluding traditional vanilla software buyout [ie entertainment, semis etc] and had poor fund returns. Around 2023 SLP told LPs they were going back to their roots of classic software buyout, and made massive investments in companies like Qualtrics

Will Qualtrics be "cooked" as agentic AI disintermediates basic survey orchestration? Quite possibly

SLP might have missed boat in overinvesting into atypical TMT companies, and then re-missed boat by pivoting back into SaaS before AI-driven concerns nuked valuations

This is strawman postmortem    

 

Silver Lake is not cooked. LP's will continue to give them capital. Everyone knows the ZIRP-era was a terrible time to buy businesses in software. Lots of capital being allocated to software with as software grows as a share of GDP with AI. SaaS has both AI-driven concerns for the highly-likely to be disrupted business who are trading terribly publically and privately and also insane multiples for businesses that are likely to benefit from AI (i.e. infra names like MongoDB who provide backend modern databases).

 
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Materially smaller flagship fund of 13.5bn for FP vs. Vista's 20bn and TB at 24bn. FP also staffs  across flagship + MM fund afaik. Just smaller check sizes and fund size. Elite name in the tech world; think they are there with the TA's/Hg/Summit's of the world in being the premier UMM software investors. You should be trying to solve for software effective fund size / AUM over the total fund size of the platform if interest is solely software. Genstar is a 10bn fund, but it's not all software whilst AKKR is also a top performing fund that's a 5.3bn fund that's all software.

FP/Vista/Thoma all have different approaches. FP brags about not having losses; TB cares less about that and tries to get more outsized very-high IRR/MOIC deals + buy and bulids, even if some deals do not work out. Vista's whole thing is their best practices operational playbook. FP is far more conservative in what they look at / where they bid than Vista or TB, both of who are notoriously aggressive bidders for businesses they like. There's a quote out there by DJ from FP that he always thinks they are one investment away from going out as a firm; I am not sure Orlando Bravo or Robert Smith feels that way.

Edit: corrected typo regarding TB fund size to the correct 24bn, not 34bn. 

 

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