At a crossroads - looking for guidance

I am going to try and lay this out without sounding stupid or shortsighted or pretentious, but I am somewhat in need of career guidance and perspective, and since I don't have many people in my close social circle that can relate, I figure WSO may be able to lend a hand.

To put it simply, I am a little bit at a loss of what goal I should be working towards long term, and how I should go about getting there.  I will lay out my background etc below, but I am currently at a top RE investment/development shop in a T2 city. I lucked into this role (entry/junior-level hire at a firm that almost exclusively recruits via MBA).  I know that this is a firm that if the stars aligned I could stay at forever (everyone starts on the principal/partner/MD track by default) and if I perform well I will make ludicrous amounts of money (median senior guy likely makes >3M/yr in their 40s) over my career.  My coworkers are great and the WLB is great as well (relative to finance, I guess), so I see this as a potential lifelong firm.

However, there are a few conflicting issues for me with this option, that make it hard to decide if that is what I want.

1. This is not the city I want to live out my days in.  I am from a coastal T2(.5?) city, and I want to make my way back there eventually.  In my current role, It has been made clear to me that after 2-3 years in this office, upon promotion I would be able to shift offices if there is a need for someone at that level and the partner leading the office wants to take me on.  While there is not an office in my home city, there is one ~90 mins away, and it is a newly established one, so they are likely to be growing for a few years.  While this is not a guarantee, it is maybe an option, but the stars have to align.
2. I do not have an MBA.  I went to a top undergrad (HSW), but I did not get an MBA yet, and I know there are certain opportunities that are only open to me post-MBA (more on that later).  Given the majority of my firm has MBAs, I have a few concerns that this would hinder me long term.  I have been told it will not, but it is tough to know for certain given the statistics.  If I want to get an MBA, I think the time to do so would be 3-5 years from now after promotion and once I am more established.  I also am aware that anything sub-M7 would likely not be worthwhile given undergrad, but my undergrad GPA was only just okay, so HBS/GSB feel like they may be out of the picture.  
3. My current firm would be a "get rich slow, and then very fast" type of trajectory.  Without going into specifics, out of college and for the following two years before my current job, I was in a finance/consulting semi-niche field (business analyst at Cap1 is the most comparable job but with a more strategic slant than that) where I was making good money for fairly good wlb (prior firm would likely have paid me ~180k in 2023 mostly remote for ~40hrs, by 2025 clearing >200k).  In order to slot into my current firm as a pre-MBA junior, I had to take a cut down to ~120k for 2023, and I will likely not clear 180k until 2025, at which point I will very quickly leapfrog prior earning trajectory (by multiples in a few years).  While I knew this going in, and I am at peace with my decision, it is still a slight worry if this new trajectory does not work out for me (RE Mega-Dev has always been a dream field for me given my somewhat unorthodox background, as I have a prior background in Civil Eng & construction).  I could always go back, but that door will slowly close, leaving me with a more narrow set of career options unless I get an MBA
4. This is the biggest stump for me, but it has been expressed to me that I would have the opportunity to slot in at the GP level (currently just two 50/50 partners) at a family member's LMM REPE shop in my hometown.  This would HAVE to be post-MBA (specifically top ~10), and it would HAVE to be after a name brand RE stint (my current firm qualifies).  It would be near 100% eat-what-I-kill model, with a very low base/bonus component, but the upside is obviously clear as they have an established capital base and by then I would have the name and pedigree to continue it (if I am good).  This is obviously a bit risky and there is also a ticking clock component to it (given the ages of partners and time to ramp up, I would likely need to be post-MBA and starting at the firm in 6-7 years from now).  There is one other (related to the other 50/50 partner, we are the only two relatives in finance) person my age also being somewhat guided to this path, and I know he is in a similar boat to me being at an EB currently, but ideally, we would join at similar times and take over together is the "vision".  If I do not commit to this opportunity in the next few years, the door will firmly close when they wind down to retire.  There is obviously significant risk to this path and is by no means guaranteed to work out long-term.  As far as I know, the MBA requirement is firm but maybe that changes a little with having the name-brand firm I do now.

Basically, I am deciding between two career paths right now.  The first is to stay at my current firm, and eventually try and move offices, but commit to them for the long haul and see where my career takes me.  I see this as fairly low risk as long as I perform, as this is not a firm that pushes people out.  The second is to take the risk and try and go into the REPE shop, try and run it successfully and be more entrepreneurial in the long run.

The questions I have for WSO Are:

1. What questions do I need to ask myself and reflect on to help me decide?
2. What questions do I need to find answers for at my current firm as well as on the REPE opportunity to have a clearer picture? 
3. What would you do?

Thanks in advance for the help