With the 10 year UST being the highest since 2008, it’s really hard to see lenders NOT laying people off. Anyone seeing layoffs at companies like CBRE, Newmark, JLL, etc?
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On the BB Buy side, yes know two people that didn't make the cut at GS on the CMBS desks. I have a friend at CBRE and he said as of now they aren't back filling positions but no layoffs planned.
I think most FI's are better prepared liquidity wise and have pulled back from hiring, but don't need to do the layoffs as it is only predicted to be bad till end of Q2. It'll cost far more to try to fill those positions. But then again they are indicating for the first time 5% FFTR next year and the overnight index swaps went over 5% last night sooooo it could be a lot rougher than even the pessimistic market is predicting.
I'd be interested in what others are seeing, it is definitely getting harder to place Agency MBS right now.
Personally in nyc, had a part time offer for a debt fund while in a masters program. It was an originations/AM role and they told me they’re still very focused on originations which I didn’t fully believe.
Speaking with brokerages definitely not hiring, was talking to firms like CB, Newmark, JLL for part time and they just stopped answering emails after having meaningful engagement/discussing meeting in person.
Things are definitely slowing down, no acqusitions roles. Companies looking for AM experience but even then not sure how real the positions are.
On the private side, people are still doing deals. Being more selective, maybe cutting proceeds, or adding structure, but still signing.
I know of at least two high yield debt shops that are growing expecting there to be a whole lot of crap to underwrite to find the deals they actually want to do which means they need more junior support.
I would think the public markets are pulling back though because they have gotten hung with so much unsellable debt and they need to clear their balance sheets prior to doing new deals.
Most of the debt the large banks/syndicators have been hung with is on the corporate side, but if you lost 700mm on Citrix that is going to change how you think of originating cmbs
I won't name the lender, but will say its a big bank. Our relationship manager told us that their incentive comp structure (as ORIGINATORS) has been changed to calc bonuses based on how much $$ they get repaid, rather than how much $$ they put out. The spigot is completely closed on new loans for the time being. Think about that for second.
While I can confirm most big banks have turned off the spigot (and my discussions with RMs at Big Banks say similar), it is still dripping. The primary syndications are still around and there are good deals to be had (high margin from top sponsors). I've seen 4-5 cash-in refinancings over the past year on loans from $200mm-$1Bn+.
I mean I'm not talking this year man, I'm talking NOW. In june we closed a 62% LTC spec hotel loan at SOFR + 325. That money is straight up gone, there's no dripping. It's gone. Hard money is pretty much the only thing I'm seeing on the table atm on 95% of deals.
At a debt fund, we’re still quoting deals and a lot of the time we’re losing (usually to other debt funds).
Good deals with reputable sponsors who normally could get cheap bank debt are now forced to go with debt funds at very low LTC & high rates. Dream scenario for debt funds
This is why we are strictly negotiating forward closes (9-12 months out from PSA signing) or seller financing. We just signed up one of each in the past month. No other way to move forward, we're not paying hard money rates unless it's the only option (deal has to be amazing).
Feel like job openings have dried up but haven’t seen layoffs yet.
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