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Bump. Seriously guys why would we be talking about anything else??
Because modeling is what…5% of the industry? Maybe less?
I hope AI can effectively model deals soon. I wouldn’t trust it at the moment though.
Really glad to hear that you wouldn't trust it at the moment. Thanks for the earth shattering insights man! Keep doing you!
I guarantee you are not older than 22 and even that might be high if you think that "modeling" is the end-all be-all of this industry.
...and nice edit, dork
Good job changing your comment after you realize that it was totally inaccurate and overblown. Maybe AI can help you reason better, or handle adversity?
I've tested chat, Claude, copilot side-by-side for various tasks - Claude is best (especially for modelling) but copilot has a use case for ppts and Microsoft native files.
Highly dependant on the context you can provide and work stream using it for.
The more cookie cutter something, the better for automating.
Have had demos of some of the "automated IM/investor reporter" tools and they're good, usually need a bit of work from the off the self. If you go with a start up loss leader, can get good value. Though given the ever decreasing cost to build something in house, I suspect firms with scale will head in this direction (we are).
What are your thoughts on gemini and perplexity?
I almost exclusively use perplexity for search - I didn't mention it in the above. The perplexity pro searches can do things well like give me a list of X contractors in Y region with case studies of X type of project.
I tried using perplexity around ~2023 and then the Google automated response or chatgpt web search overtook it briefly for some time IMO, but it's continued to improve and I have defaulted to it for the last year. It gives me better results than the others, right amount of detail in a response, often identifies "unknown-unknowns" that I otherwise would have maybe found out on my third google search (for example: local govt requires x license to do the work you're looking for a contractor for).
Not a massive amount of experience with Gemini for work. I have a Google Pixel phone, so it's my default "hey Google" chatbot. I use it for admin or talk to it when I'm cycling/driving to google things I'm interested in hands-free. I think it's similar to ChatGPT - slightly more narrative, longer answers (vs Claude - to the point), though I haven't set it up properly with general instructions to prioritise conciseness. Haven't tested with docs etc. yet.
Claude is awesome at modeling. People are nuts if they think AI is "garbage" at modeling....IMO soup to nuts financial modeling as a critical skill is not going to be important in less than a year
Do you have a good example or youtube walkthrough or something? I want to believe.
We’ll get Mulder and Scully to investigate right away *queue x-files theme music
Stumbled across a group called Pacific Software Ventures. I still think you need to do a bit of additional training based on how you underwrite, but looks pretty good (AI underwrites in your template and everything).
Has anyone seen AI recreate anything like an Argus model?
What do you usually prompt or provide Claude to create the model?
Hey! There are a few interesting developments in the AI space right now, and while specific underwriting agents can vary a lot depending on your workflow and data needs, it often helps to get familiar with broader AI capabilities first. For example, I found this overview on conversational AI useful for understanding the kinds of logic and automation modern AI tools use — that background can make it easier to evaluate underwriting agents and see which ones fit your needs.
Literally just had a conversation with my boss about letting AI do all our initial screening for deals today. Stupid not to
I can think of a few reasons
Nah. Modelling isn’t difficult but time consuming. Getting Ai to do the basics for you is a no brainer. If it needs to be complex then fine it won’t work but for core/value add initial underwrites it’s like 95% accuracy in 5% of the time it takes to build yourself
All the screening? While rent roll and financials can be spread and market data pulled by AI, how is that any different than someone in India or the Philippines doing it? They also get paid very little so there is not a lot of cost savings by having AI doing all the work, if anything you could use AI to make them even more efficient. At some places, they have also been doing it for over 20 years, so they are pretty good at it and they work while we are asleep here so whatever you need will be ready by the time you get to the office in the morning.
Because I work for a developer and we don’t have an Indian or phillipino office
Idk. I understand why it is helpful and it will increase accuracy overtime, but how else would anyone truly learn the intricacies of why certain variables are important without physically doing the modeling. I think it’s imperative. Not sold just yet on modeling and analysis.
To CRE’s point, deal modeling is largely unimportant. You essentially just back into assumptions that allow you to win deals. It’s drives almost zero alpha in any development business.
No. Honestly, it hasn't added any value since Excel templates have already done the bulk of the heavy lifting. I have to go back and review everything AI does to begin with, so there isn't really any efficiency gained by using it. Glad others have found use for it though.
Heard the new claude plug in is good, but so far in my recent attempts produced useless garbage. Our deals are extremely far from the fairway though so I think for something simple like multi value could be getting close...also IMO the only thing that would make this shit useful in excel is if I can tell it to add features to my model (i.e. add a mezz layer with PIK in and create a switch for funding org pari vs first). Once it can do that fuck yeah. I haven't see anything close yet. But on the DD / research / legal side been amazing for me so far.
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