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Generally analyst bonuses will stay on target as they are “low cost”. It’s MD/D/ and maybe VP that gets a lower bonus as they are more focused on production and driving revenue. Note: it also depends on your business line. If you’re at a fund - management fees won’t change as a result of a recession as AUM is down. At a developer, you may not do a deal, but development fees should stay constant unless developments are finished mid recession and the fee is fully paid. For the most part - the places where a bonus might be cut is where fees are driven by volume - such as brokerage. However, even there analysts will probably get paid. 
 

With the above said, some firms will use the cover of a recession to cut bonuses even if fee income is unchanged. 

 

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