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Says business as usual. The MBA is expecting the MF origination's market to be $390B for 2020, so the GSE's will still be allowed to go up to 42.5% of that market (which is where they are currently at for Market Share).
The kicker of this all is the $37B required by FHFA for each agency and it has to be affordable without any green loans. So there will be strong appetite from the GSE's for the deals that are low income and affordable.
I think this has big implications on the value-add side, which usually takes advantage of their green program. By capping green business AND focusing on affordable properties, value-add borrowers will likely have to look elsewhere.
If it's true value-add (taking outdated and under performing assets in strong markets and infusing capital) then there should be some natural existing affordability at the property since it's lagging behind the general market.
What this new change will impact is lipstick-on-a-pig "value-add" players that make surface level improvements and juice NOI to get to an exit as quickly as possible. Their strategy has recently been to market the "remaining upside", aka the actual cap-ex, to push their re-sale value and offload the risk to a new owner. That sale scenario will likely then lack natural affordability and may make the deal less attractive to the agencies.
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