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I do not, however, my opinion of Linneman has gone quite downhill since COVID. Was saying that the primary markets would outpace the Sun Belt in 2021. Then late 2021/early 2022 was talking about how interest rates really aren't correlated with cap rates and cap rates will stay low and blah blah blah. Really big guy, then how come my deal traded last November at an in-place 3 and if it were to trade today it would be at an in-place 4.75-5.00?
He harps on the fact that cap rates are correlated with the amount of capital flowing into the space as opposed to interest rates, but completely ignores that the amount of capital flowing into private RE is impacted by interest rates via the higher yields you can get in alternative markets like fixed income. You want to take the stance that the correlation is not completely "direct" then fine, but to dismiss any relationship is silly to me.
Thank you this is the best articulation of what I've been trying to say about rates/capital flows.
Yea he's been inhaling some Grade A copium lately.
He didn’t think rates would rise this high this fast. On the Walker webcast in the spring, he thought the 10-year would cap out at 3% by the end of the year. Obviously this was wrong so his predictions need to be scaled back proportionally.
Even then, the above would still be true I think except prices would be off +/- 10% instead of 25%.
Seems full of bias, think he overextended himself with office and started shitting bricks once Covid hit. Now he harps on how the rest of the worlds already back in the office 5 days a week and the US needs to follow suit to remain competitive, because “productivity” blah blah blah. Listen to his latest podcast with Willy Walker
Haven't listened to it yet but plan to this weekend. Thanks
Haven't been a fan of his during the last few Walker Webcasts he did. Anything he got wrong last quarter/year are brushed off, and he just continually reiterates his positions without really questioning himself (capital flows alone will continue to suppress cap rates, people have to go back to the office, etc). "Well I was kinda wrong, but actually..."
I do like how Willy holds him somewhat accountable to his prior predictions though.
Listened to his latest podcast with Willy Walker. What a total crock of shit he was peddling. Had to turn it off midway through. Acting like things are all hunky dory. Bro, rents are declining, values are down 25%+, and development costs are all-time high.
Yeah, he's oddly very bullish which is weird because I did the REFAI course and he seemed very conservative and disciplined in his lectures.
Interested in the latest copy of the Linneman letter as well.
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