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Do you have reason to believe it'll increase?
Most occupants of class A multifamily in NYC did not lose their jobs. Unless they want to go get a larger space after the the quarantine made them think their home is too small, there's nowhere to really go. This demo generally won't reduce their living costs to save money unless they're really forced to, and even then…
edit: caveat would be the Class B stuff priced as A. Those owners will be hurting, and there's a fair amount of it. All the redeveloped 70s-80s vintage stuff that's been getting $65 psf with the help of tons of concessions.
Was on the phone with a large institutional investor last week, they said that they are expecting their 2020 multifamily numbers to be abysmal. Didn't give any specifics on vacancy rate, but said their entire multifamily arm is projecting flat YoY.
Seems more likely that rent concessions will increase (read: decrease in amortized rent), but gross rent will stay the same.
Is this for NYC or nation-wide? Again, I can see a better case for nationwide problems than for Class A multifamily in NYC. The last twenty years have shown that Manhattan vacancy rates don't dip as badly as elsewhere, and recover more quickly
That was feedback nation-wide/about their whole MF portfolio. The concessions piece was NYC-specific
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/04/06/related-companies-jeff-blau-on-co…
"On the residential side we wound up collecting, so far it's only a couple days in, about 88% of the rent that was due." --Jeff Blau yesterday on Squawk Box (CNBC)
Just one data point, but I think indicative of major market Class A multifamily even in tougher times.
interesting....I don't believe the 88% figure, but who knows....our internal data is near the 70% mark for multifamily receivables.
Class A, B or C?
Just as another data point, we are up to 89% collections this month for our portfolio of Class A and B (12,000 units).
Anyone seeing preliminary numbers for May rent collections?
88% in NYC? Too low.
We collected in March and April 95%. all class A so these guys are WFH.
Affordable units are being hit hard closer to 80% (for obvious reasons).
That particular stat was regarding April rents as of the date he went on-air (April 6). April numbers definitely went up from there. Just wondering what operators are seeing re: May numbers compared to April's at the same point in the month.
Any class A rental building in New York has affordable housing for the tax abatement, so probably a lot of those people, and a smaller portion of market rate renters, are not paying their rent.
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