Manhattan Class-A Multi Rental Rates

For anyone who works with Class-A Multi in NYC, by how much do you think the vacancy rate will spike this summer and what are you projecting the rent decline will be?

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Do you have reason to believe it'll increase?

Most occupants of class A multifamily in NYC did not lose their jobs. Unless they want to go get a larger space after the the quarantine made them think their home is too small, there's nowhere to really go. This demo generally won't reduce their living costs to save money unless they're really forced to, and even then…

edit: caveat would be the Class B stuff priced as A. Those owners will be hurting, and there's a fair amount of it. All the redeveloped 70s-80s vintage stuff that's been getting $65 psf with the help of tons of concessions.

“Doesn't really mean shit plebby boi. LMK when you're pulling thiccboi cheques.“ — @m_1
 

Was on the phone with a large institutional investor last week, they said that they are expecting their 2020 multifamily numbers to be abysmal. Didn't give any specifics on vacancy rate, but said their entire multifamily arm is projecting flat YoY.

Seems more likely that rent concessions will increase (read: decrease in amortized rent), but gross rent will stay the same.

 
"CREthoughts" Was on the phone with a large institutional investor last week, they said that they are expecting their 2020 multifamily numbers to be abysmal. Didn't give any specifics on vacancy rate, but said their entire multifamily arm is projecting flat YoY.

Seems more likely that rent concessions will increase (read: decrease in amortized rent), but gross rent will stay the same.

Is this for NYC or nation-wide? Again, I can see a better case for nationwide problems than for Class A multifamily in NYC. The last twenty years have shown that Manhattan vacancy rates don't dip as badly as elsewhere, and recover more quickly

 

interesting....I don't believe the 88% figure, but who knows....our internal data is near the 70% mark for multifamily receivables.

 

Anyone seeing preliminary numbers for May rent collections?

“Doesn't really mean shit plebby boi. LMK when you're pulling thiccboi cheques.“ — @m_1
 

That particular stat was regarding April rents as of the date he went on-air (April 6). April numbers definitely went up from there. Just wondering what operators are seeing re: May numbers compared to April's at the same point in the month.

“Doesn't really mean shit plebby boi. LMK when you're pulling thiccboi cheques.“ — @m_1
 

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