Mid Year 2025 - Still seeing no transactions
Anyone else in the same boat or has everyone started doing transactions? We're in multifamily, hotels, and self storage.
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It’s a brutal market. With the cost of debt and many sellers grounded in 2021-2022 pricing, many deals don’t pencil. I do office and multi. Much of the office product is worth less than the debt but sellers have capitulated yet. For multi - I just do ground up so much really doesn’t pencil.
A little better than 23-24 but still pretty stuck
In MF lending, we've already surpassed 23 and 24 YoY volume. Not as good as 22, though, but could get there.
Side note more acquisitions as well
The more quarters that pass like this, the more you realize that the go-go years were true aberrations. The 10 year treasury was 0.54% in 2019 and ~4.3% in 2025. This long period of stasis is required to revert to the mean. Nature is healing.
If you've been treating your career as a sprint, yes, it's painful. But for those who see it as a marathon, and prepared for that marathon, the sprinters are tapping out, falling behind, exhausted by the tap-dancing required to get from quarter to quarter. Their bullishness, hubris and exuberance served them well in the go-go years, but the pendulum has swung to the boring, patient guys who prepared for a downturn that finally came. Find a seat and get comfortable.
Truth here.
It’s a real slog - I’m having a hard time coming to terms with the fact it’s probably another few years before things really rebound. And could be decades before we see the same type of boom we saw over the last 10 years.
Worse yet there’s nowhere to hide - tech, PE, sales, etc. are all brutal right now. No one is having a good time in this economy. I suppose it’s good to be employed, a lot of folks have been out of work for a while, which is making employers feel like they own you (they do). A decade of employee gains in the workplace up in flames - remote work is dead, everyone is collectively stressed about loosing their jobs making a true race to the bottom on hours a wages.
Your right you just have to stay in the game and eventually it will turn around, I just think what we are about to go through is going to be much tougher than it’s been in the last 50 years.
Feels like it will be more of like an ultra marathon.
On the leasing side and have never been busier in my life
Not too surprised by this, theres a lot of firms looking for space, what type of leasing do you handle, retail, office, industrial?
What market?
Mostly office and in a national practice so have seen a bit in most major markets. Seems like the markets that got hammered during COVID (Chicago/SFs of the world) seem to be having a semblance of a moment again. Probably less exciting in markets that maintained decent leasing volume from ‘21-‘23ish
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