Specializing in Office Long-Term - Prospects
Current a generalist at a middle market shop whose future prospects are not good - on the PERE list, ranked 50-150 and will likely fall as fundraising stalls further. Currently have the opportunity to join a larger firm to specialize in office acquisitions & asset management, which is siloed from the other asset classes at the firm - this firm's historic bread and butter has been office (think Vornado, Brookfield, Hines, BXP, BGO, etc). Seeing that this opportunity would be a material step up in name brand and comp, I'm going to accept the opportunity. But am I shooting myself in the foot so to speak, by focusing on an asset class whose prospects long-term are not great? And it's not like office UW/asset management is transferrable to other asset classes. Thanks in advance.
I wouldn’t worry about it. You are going to a name brand shop and you are coming from a generalist role. I have been speaking with shops that do different product types, they are more concerned with skills & experience vs product type. I would say product type is more of a plus than a necessity.
Totally understand it is a good brand - but with the current office outlook why would you tie yourself to a team that just does office investing? If your compensation is going to be tied to the number of deals you do or promote / fees associated to those deals - I would expect your comp to be down materially over the next 3-5 years and maybe longer. Unless you really love office I would think long and hard about this. Sure you can always move - but than you’re fighting the wave of being a specialist for a few years or longer. As someone who works in office today - I would not make the switch and I would go to greener pastures. It happens to be what I am going to do. But again - why tie yourself to an asset class where comp will be down for the foreseeable future.
pudding, appreciate your thoughts (as always). in this case, the new office-focused role offers:
- bigger name brand with staying power
- the stability a bigger name brand offers. my current shop is struggling to fundraise, and there has been an exodus of people. not good for future carry either to work for a firm that may go bankrupt
- more AUM per head = more fee income to pay my base & bonus
- over 2x the cash comp, with additional incentives. soon will have a family to feed, so the extra comp will come in handy
- more of a defined path forward
just wish that it were more of a generalist role, or focused on another asset type
I would take the role bro - you will pitch your experience to the next shop as follows either 1) distressed acquisition specialist 2) AM experience in the most fucked asset class. Both experiences are great and can be transferrable to other asset classes. You will only get pigeonholed if you stay within that focus for 3+ years IMO.
I can tell you're generally negative the long term outlook of office but as someone who is in office specifically, do you see this current dislocation as an opportunity to lean into a specific a office thesis that could potentially provide outsized returns in the next 3-5 years? It seems like there are distressed acquisition and debt shops being curated to lean into quality, well located office or class B assets with big renovation programs at a reset basis that will allow for cheaper rates for quality real estate.
I don't have a specific opinion on it yet because office isn't my expertise but I'm curious to hear more from you or others that focus on office.
Yes & no. You can lean in and buy. But the issue is two fold - even if you have conviction leasing is really only happening in A+ product. That product isn’t really trading for enough of a discount to have opportunistic returns.
it’s also basically impossible to get debt on an office acquisition. So it doesn’t really what you underwrite but unless you can realistically get to a 10-12% yield on cost - it’s going to be really hard. Need to stabilized value add office debt at 13-14.5% debt yield.
Cheaper rents are hard. To operate a class A building costs what it costs. Payroll etc. Buying at a better basis you can only cut rents so much. And TI is still thru the roof.
Office is a really tough business right now.
If they are hiring it means they want to do distressed office acquisitions and have the cash to put it to work. I'd take that in a heartbeat. You'll be working on distressed acquisitions, loan-to-own plays, and will ride the wave of office price reflation over the next few years.
There are those who work in office today who say don't do it but that's because they went in when values were high and now are crashing. Why not get in when values are at multi-generational lows? If a securitization hedge fund offered you a job in 2008/09 you'd take it, surely?
Why do you think your current shop is likely to have less success with fundraising than anyone else? No one gives a shit about rankings except people on WSO, so don't make important career decisions merely because your firm was the 51st largest by AUM in 2022 and was 64th in 2023.
writing's on the wall: poor recent returns (worse than peer set), internal rumors that the fund series may not continue, mass departures including that of quasi-key men, etc.
Those are better reasons!
I understand where @pudding is coming from, but I also understand where @brosephstalin is coming from as well. You're joining a shop that invests in distressed assets. If they are able to turnaround these distressed properties then you will gain a lot of experience and see some pretty creative and unique situations. However, if the assets remain distressed then...well that sucks lol.
You should really seek to understand the firm's strategy and see if you agree with it. There is a lot of opportunity in the office space now for those who have the balls and creativity to invest in it. Given that you are pretty junior I see little downside. If shit hits the fan and you need to change jobs, no one is really going to question you about it esp of it is 1.) a name brand shop and 2.) you explain your reasoning i.e. i thought it would be a great learning experience to join a firm investing in distressed assets (And this isn't even a lie. You will undoubtedly see a lot of unique scenarios that many will not). And the pay increase is also a bonus. It would be pretty cool if your firm did MF as well then perhaps you could see some office to MF conversions.
I agree with the above. Be careful what market they're doing this in though. In NYC, this is a fools errand. Zoning and complexity is too high to make a decent profit doing office conversions. I disagree with everyone who thinks office isn't transferable. You'll be better equip to model/understand Multifamily or simpler asset classes. Office is more complex in a lot of ways. It's harder to go from having distressed Multifamily experience to distressed office than vice versa.
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