Time spent in the current cycle
How's everyone navigating the current cycle and spending their time? I run a smaller shop and deals are extremely frustrating for the past few years as plenty of threads on here have discussed. I've been selling off properties at low cap rates/high $/sf that I can't say no to, but can't find anything remotely interesting to acquire/develop. Some competitors in my market are still buying or putting up spec, but have to be using really aggressive assumptions and thin yields, a game I'm not interested in. My asset management and property management duties are pretty light, so my days are becoming quite unfulfilling.
Keep grinding and turning over more rocks to hopefully find something? Explore other business opportunities or career changes? Enjoy the lack of activity by spending more time with family or on hobbies? There will no doubt be another great part of the cycle to deploy capital in, but this current market really makes me wonder if my time would be better spent elsewhere at the moment. Anyone else trying to figure out how to allocate their time and resources?
I'm in a slightly different situation because I'm essentially a LP in my remaining deals at this point, and as a result I have nothing to manage or sell off, but "can't find anything remotely interesting to acquire/develop" summarizes my time pretty well right now.
I've been doing your options #2 and #3 far more than your #1, personally. I helped a non-profit I'm involved in get 501(c)(3) status, did some contract/consulting work for people who needed help, flirted with a career change before realizing I was just bored and decided the solution to that wasn't to be an employee again, and am doing a lot of reading and writing in my abundant spare time.
Weird time to be out on your own, as I'm sure you know even better than I do.
Sounds like we're in a similar boat, appreciate the comments. Turning over more rocks is obviously more likely to find one of the few deals out there, I'm just growing tired of talking to brokers, owners, etc when I know the deals don't work. I also did a little consulting work and a couple brokerage deals, which were at least productive work and brought in a little extra dough. I have toyed with the idea of acquiring a business, but keep coming back to: operations is my least enjoyable part of this business - acquisitions and development is what interests me, so I'm not sure running an operating business would really fill the void or bring enjoyment, but maybe. I have been spending time on my public markets portfolio to somewhat scratch the intellectual, investment, etc itch. It's always been an interest of mine, so having some extra time to devote to it is nice. I also considered just punching the clock again and managing my portfolio on the side until things pick back up. It's appealing to have something meaningful to do each day, but not sure I want to give up my freedom and be on someone else's schedule when I don't need to. I've been trying to allow myself to tend to personal matters and projects more, but can't help feel like I need to be working on my business during typical business hours, not personal projects or family time. No doubt a weird time right now.
Hah, I wish my personal projects had more profit potential. I have a lovely habit of finding or being good at things that are either almost unprofitable or that I would never want to do professionally because of the lifestyle. Real estate was supposed to be the profit center...
100%. My personal projects and hobbies just cost me money and I likely wouldn't enjoy them if they became jobs... Do you plan to stay in the industry long term or still figuring it out?
I think it depends on what the market looks like on the next upswing. If every opportunity, however small, either gets gobbled up or overbid on by monster corporations paying stupid prices because they need to get money out, there's no actual way I could compete. But if there are still lanes available, I'll be involved.
I will say that my goals have shifted fairly dramatically over the past 5 or so years. I have no real interest in building the type of megaprojects I once admired. I want enough cash flow via small projects to support my lifestyle, not be signing nine-figure guarantees. If that looks like little 3-tenant retail outparcels instead of city-altering town centers or towers, then so be it.
Good stuff, exactly where my heads at regarding project size/desires. Good luck to ya
The most productive thing you can be doing with your time is laying the groundwork for when the market recalibrates (whatever that means). So, just general meetups with brokers not tied to any deal (people generally like beer and golfing), introductions to banks/credit unions, meetings with possible investors, getting systems built and ready to go, etc. It's mundane stuff, but it'll probably pay off handsomely down the road.
Other than that, "enjoy" the freedom you have right now. Focus on your health, your family, friends, hobbies. Real estate is a cyclical industry...it's never up and to the right forever. There are peaks and valleys. We are in a valley right now.
Glad to see I'm not the only one grappling with this. When you talk to colleagues / counterparts in your day-job business, there's so much boosterism, puffery and so-busy-right-now BS (when volume stats clearly show the opposite). At the same time, I get their posturing. If a broker/lender/investor is talking about how slow it is, they're not top of mind when something DOES materialize, so people need to put up these facades.
Regarding use of time, I just remember periods when there wasn't enough time and it there was crazy anxiety and I just wished things could be slow. Well, many of us got what we wished for and it has its own drawbacks (as described above). So yes more focus now on family time, coming into office an hour late, 2-hour lunhces, reading the WSJ cover to cover, Linkedin scrolling (lowering my IQ by the hour), etc etc.
But I'm sticking to my knitting with this philosophy: staying committed to your niche/role through the downcycles is (paradoxically) where you actually earn your money, because when it does come back (and it always does, eventually), you were the guy who was always there, always available, and that will give a huge leg up over the guys who cycled out, cycled in, cycled back chasing something else. When someone's looking at my resume in 5 years they'll say 'wow this guy's a survivor, a persistent, tough-it-out SOB who held his role during terrible cycle.' If I talk to someone in my niche who pivots, I (fairly or unfairly) think to myself wow this guy's a desperate weak quitter.
Talk to any older senior guy who's made it and they talk about these periods ("oh banks red-lined the entire state of TX from '90 to '94" .... "banks couldn't give the stuff away for years" etc etc), so I'm hoping to set myself up with that same tale.
Godspeed to all.
But yes I am bored to tears. What are some hobbies that can be pursued sitting behind a computer during the work day?
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