Been nearly 10-12 months of acq activity being slow and hiring being slow As a result. Looking to make the move to acquisitions. Could things pick back up by next summer ? That would be another 12 months from now. Cumulative 24 months of limited activity. 2 YEARS.
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I think acquisitions have picked up a little over the past few months as the pricing disconnect between buyers and sellers has narrowed. Everyone realizes that cap rates have expanded 100bps+. For certain areas the rent growth is helping to absorb some of that hit (multifamily/industrial). For others (office/medical/retail) it can be a killer.
A lot of groups are trying to recycle capital at this point. Developers over the last few years might also have very low cost basis and are still able to exit their properties at a solid mark relative to cost. Many funds are trying to exit some positions to crystalize gains as well.
The longer financing stays expensive the harder it will be for certain groups (i.e. value add to pick back up). I think the markets are starting to realize that debt costs may remain high for a while (next 18+ months possibly). This could make entrants into the market more accepting as waiting may not be possible for those who have to invest capital in certain verticals.
Office is still in pain and will be slow to pick up. A large part of this is there is no realistic financing available for office product.
Core and infill industrial have still been trading. Multifamily is picking up a bit as well as more deals have hit the market. Retail still has strong cash flow in certain areas but consolidation of retail and certain big box retailers fleeing markets will be sure to cause pain for secondary retail.
All this to say I do believe acquisitions volume will be much stronger by some point in 2024 and hiring will follow.
Been approached by some HHs for REPE, REIT, and Dev positions more recently. It seems as though some companies are getting ready to ramp up.
work at a large capital market brokerage firm, expectation is Q3 Q4 is gonna be very busy.
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