Will the cost for houses go down in 2022?

Well you will find out in 15 minutes at 9 when the FHFA House Price Index prints. 

There will be disinflation in housing prices, not deflation. House prices will begin to rise more slowly than before, but they’re not going to fall. We MIGHT see a slight “correction” in prices in some of the more overvalued markets like parts of Florida and the Southwest. Overall, house prices aren’t going down, but we’re probably gonna ease off the gas a little bit on real estate appreciation.

Source: Sat in a long conversation with some colleagues and a bunch of Moody’s economists recently

Yeah probs

Yes most definitely

You'll see a slight correction as the rapid rise in rates creates a shock to the housing boom. A much needed shock. However, here is my thinking, even if rates stay at 7% - 30yr fixed, housing prices will still rise. The reasoning is simple. New household formation in the US well exceeds new development and is likely to be the case for the foreseeable future. Simply put, not enough places for people to live. People that were on the sidelines (which is a large % of the future buyers) are still waiting. They are hoping rates fall, but unlikely to happen anytime soon because the Fed has learned that was a fatal policy blunder that helped ignite inflation. Eventually these buyers on the sidelines will say screw it and come back into the market out of desperation even at these rates. One key piece of information everyone is missing is that I believe 70% of current homeowners have a rate of less than 3.75%. My rate 30 yr fixed is 2.65%. Unless someone is really desperate to free up equity or really needs to move, I believe inventory may be thin going forward. Many of these homeowners will likely hold to their rate forever and I believe we will see a phenomenon called "The forever home". Why sell your home when your rate is locked in so cheap. Hell, savings rates are hitting 2% and will likely be higher than most of these owners interest rates in 12-24 months. 

beach house in the northeast just got MUCH cheaper...but more expensive to finance.

Short answer: Absolutely yes they will be going down in nominal terms. 

As interest rates rise, the cost to borrow goes up, thus eroding purchasing power. This will be compounded by the fact that for most people finding the down-payment is the most difficult part of the home buying process. Part of the run-up in prices over the last few years was due to the fact that people had a ton of equity in their homes. They could use that chunk of equity as a down-payment on a larger/another home. When home prices start moving the other direction, that equity disappears and the drop in overall prices is exasperated.

Take a look at any home affordability chart out there. Without substantial wage growth to offset higher interest rates, buying a home will become more and more difficult for the average person. The fix for this? Home prices come down