Best resources for macro rates trading

I trade rates vol, mostly systematic/RV, and am trying to get better at forming longer horizon macro views, say 6-18 months, and expressing them in rates.

I’m comfortable with the basic mechanics like curve construction, forwards, carry/roll, swaps/options, etc. I’ve read Understanding the Yield Curve. What I don’t have a great feel for is how experienced macro/rates traders go from a view on growth, inflation, Fed policy, fiscal/supply, etc. to an actual view on duration and the curve.

How do you think about whether a change in the macro outlook should show up mostly in the expected policy path or further out the curve? How do you judge how much is already priced?

I’m currently reading Trading Global Macro Markets by Willer/Saunders. I’ve also come across Jha’s Interest Rate Markets but haven’t read it yet.

Any books, papers, old sell-side research, blogs, etc. that are particularly good for developing this kind of intuition? Not really looking for more bond math or derivatives pricing.


 

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