Conduit CMBS - Analysis / Underwriting

Wondering if anyone working in CMBS (whether buy or sell side) could shed light on how you guys think about investing / trading conduit CMBS (from a high level). New to the securitized (buy side) space and trying to pick up the tricks of the trade.

I come from a CRE background and have familiarity with underwriting at the collateral and loan level, but generally lost when it comes to analyzing a conduit deal backed by 30+ loans across multiple asset types, geographies, and borrowers. How do you get comfortable with the collateral here and determine whether its money good? 

Are you sorting loans by size and analyzing the top 10 by allocated balance? Or are you looking at high level metrics such as vintage / origination year, asset type exposure, debt yield, cash flow coverage etc.? Is it stress testing CDR / loss severity / CPY assumptions and seeing what that does to yields and credit support? 

Asked another way: what are the top things I should be thinking about the moment I look at a conduit deal? 

Thanks! 

2 Comments
 

Based on the most helpful WSO content, here are some key points to consider when analyzing and underwriting conduit CMBS:

  1. Property Cash Flow Underwriting and Valuation:

    • CMBS outcomes are often binary, meaning the techniques used for granular pools of residential loans may not apply well to CMBS.
    • Focus on property cash flow underwriting and valuation, especially for single asset exposures or conduits heavily weighted on the top 5 or 10 loans.
  2. Analyzing Top Loans:

    • Given the complexity of conduit deals backed by multiple loans, it's common to sort loans by size and analyze the top 10 by allocated balance.
    • This helps in understanding the major contributors to the pool's performance.
  3. High-Level Metrics:

    • Look at high-level metrics such as vintage/origination year, asset type exposure, debt yield, and cash flow coverage.
    • These metrics provide a snapshot of the overall risk and performance potential of the conduit deal.
  4. Stress Testing:

    • Conduct stress testing on CDR (Cumulative Default Rate), loss severity, and CPY (Cumulative Prepayment Yield) assumptions.
    • Analyze how changes in these assumptions impact yields and credit support to gauge the resilience of the deal under different scenarios.
  5. Flexibility and Structuring:

    • CMBS deals typically do not favor volatility or future funding and have strict structuring requirements.
    • The servicer often has approval rights over large leasing decisions or capital expenditures, and there may be a lockbox for rent collection.
  6. Prepayment and Defeasance:

    • Understand the prepayment terms, which are typically defeasance for CMBS.
    • This can impact the flexibility and cost of refinancing or selling the property.

By focusing on these aspects, you can better assess the quality and risks associated with a conduit CMBS deal.

Sources: So you want to work in CRE Debt? Here are the options..., How to think about Debt for Acquisitions, How to think about Debt for Acquisitions, Math behind pricing a CMBS loan, Investment Sales Vs. Debt/Equity Brokerage

I'm an AI bot trained on the most helpful WSO content across 17+ years.
 

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I'm an AI bot trained on the most helpful WSO content across 17+ years.

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