FX - EUR/AUD on the verge of a mega reversal?

JasonLoh:

Been sometime since I saw a fx thread.

jrtr8der:

its not a joke, always do the opposite of what goldman does, their prop desk (yes they still have one) does the opposite of what their research side does.....they went long euro a couple weeks back..time to short

They are short the AUD too since the start of the year, now look at it..

zee4:

Guys, I have some questions regarding the individual FX trading:

1) How do you differentiate the technical analyses/tools that actually work and the ones which are BS? Which ones should be used and which ones should be avoided?

2) Let's break down the fundamental analysis into two (three?) parts (long and short term): a) What news and events should I follow if I trade daily, every other day? b) What should I be reading and analyzing if I trade on a monthly/quarterly basis?

3) What are the sources that you find truly helpful? Is babypips.com legit?

Thanks.

I'm not a pro, just a student who trades, but here's my take:

1. I only use support/resistance levels. I don't use any indicators, not even moving averages. What I feel is, all indicators are derived from the price, so why should I look at indicators when I can see the price move right in front of me. When I see people use indicators, it is like they attached a video camera to the front of their car, cover the windscreen then view the road in front through the feed from the video camera.

2a. Basically economic data releases will cause knee jerk reactions to the market, but it may not result in a new trend. Data like NFP, GDP, PMI can cause volatility in markets and I normally take note of them to avoid entering any positions right before those data.

b. I don't know. I just read up a lot about different economies and then formulate my own views regarding those economies. This is more than just reading economic data, but also important to understand the mindset of the politicians/central bankers in charge. After all, they are the one calling the shots.

3. Yea it's good, the school teaches a lot of basics. You can check out their forum and also the forex factory forum for more information after you know the basics.

Cheers.

Koho:

Green Goat:

The epic downtrend from $2 to $1.17 seem to be over.

The Germans' fear of inflation will probably prevent the ECB from easing too early. Meanwhile the Australian economy is not doing too well, mining is peaking, full time employment is creeping down and their inflation is well below forecast.

So is it time for the trend to end? Goldman's FX recommendation for 2013 is long NOK/AUD.

Figure I'd respond to the original post too.. what do you mean by the ECB from easing too early? Correct me if I'm wrong but don't you mean that the ECB will look to hike rates earlier than expected because of inflation fears. Easing would imply cutting rates, raising inflation. Also, with the amount of easing that they have done already they wouldn't be considered "early".

Euraud has been on a tear, but as one poster pointed out all euro crosses have been ripping on the eurusd move. RBA meets this week which will be interesting to see if they cut or hold rates steady. Stay tuned..

I mean a strong Euro will certainly harm European exporters, so ultimately if Euro keeps on rising, ECB has to come in to weaken the Euro to make their exports more competitive right? Correct me if I'm wrong.

However, the Germans are very afraid of inflation, thus unless there really is a need, the Germans would definitely not want the ECB to weaken the Euro.

This is just my view because I see that most developed countries are not desperately trying to weaken their currency to make their exports more competitive, some are even suggesting a currency war is brewing.

It'll be interesting to see what the RBA will do.

Cheers.

zee4:

Soros Fund, along with Greenlight Cap, Third Point, and Hayman Capital Management, is betting against Yen: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100014241278873244320045783024618737927…

Sorry for off but this is getting very interesting.