it is a bad investment to go into oil?
still in college
given there's a green revolution going on, would it be a poor investment to spend a lot of my time trying to get into physical oil trading if i want a 40+ year career
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bump
certainly doesn't sound ideal
why shoot for a 40 year career?
IEA calls for no more new oil and gas investments in order to achieve net zero 2050?
I wouldn't personally. I used to dream of being a physical oil trader but now I wouldn't touch it. Power and gas (LNG in particular) will have a much longer lifecycle if you're just starting your career and looking at energy. I would also consider metals if you can, demand there will only grow. And of course agriculture will always be around.
idk I feel like there's still a lot of money to be in oil trading in spite of all code red for humanity etc. Enough that it's still seriously worth considering for me at least for maybe 10-20 years? This is supported by the fact OPEC said last year oil demand will not plateau until late 2030s
Counterpoint....the commercial skills & logistics understanding you will develop are valuable outside of just oil.
The autonomy from a young age as a trader is a way different experience than someone even on the commercial side of a typical F500.
Plenty of PE shops always are looking for someone who has a commodity background. I myself moved into a corporate VC role where I am deep in building a raw materials business & I use learnings from my time in Ags extensively. Internally, it has become something of a "personal brand" being the 1 ex-commodity trader inside a massive organization. Plenty of senior folks ask me questions and get my take on things that a Jr. Trader would find elementary
Agree with the first two points and never would have thought about the 3rd point. Did not know it was valued at PE shops. SB
could you possibly emphasize what PE funds would be interested in ppl from commodities and how coming from a different background helps you in PE?
FWIW- when I started my career almost 20 years ago we were talking about the end of Oil too...
While a 40 year career in metals or power & gas sounds more plausible than one in oil, the NPV of that career may not be higher than a 20 year career in oil.
People have no idea how much power oil traders wield inside orgs political hierarchy
Near impossible to have a 40+ year trading career. Lets say you start at 23…still nutty. If you really aim to stick around that long the juniors below at some point will kill you off anyways.
20 years is a more reasonable timeline. As once you hit mid 40s the juniors are gunning already. Question do you enjoy the skills and environment more so.
Very true. Lots of opportunities to slow down in a corp role at that point though.
Was truly half-joking. But agree with you. Just mean its a strange question for this career, being doctor/lawyer sure but longevity aint why one gets into trading.
The skills you learn will be always be transferrable since its a high paced results driven environment.
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