Somebody explain hedging

I've always had trouble grasping wtf "hedging" really is.

In order to cover my ass (because I'm not confident in my original investment? Sounds like some pussy shit tbh...), I bet even more money on the opposite side of my trade, so no matter what outcome, I 'win', but the cost is lower returns because I also 'lost' on the other side of the trade from my hedge?

Can somebody explain what I'm missing?

 

Hedging is primarily for risk management. For example I might run a matched book at a bank, making markets in any product, this means that for every trade I do for a client I will do an offsetting trade in order to offset the risk (you will still have counterparty risk). I make a profit by charging a higher bid offer on the client trade than on the hedge. The bank might not run matched, which would mean the trading desk has a view about their product, but they will still have risk limits meaning as you reach these limits you will need to hedge to offset it. This also happens at hedge funds/prop shops/quant firms. It’s easy to say “that sounds like pussy shit” when you’ve never lost real money because of bad risk management…

 

Outright price risk is often very dangerous for a PM. Every successful trader is playing spreads.

Futures example: I think the nat gas market is overvalued, so I do some analysis and find the most overvalued month, which I decide to be April 24. If I short April futures, and Pennsylvania shale fields get nuked tomorrow, not only are all the quakers dead, I also just lost my job because the nat gas market as a whole just ripped through the ceiling. If I was smart, I would have shorted April and gone long March. In this example I’m right about the fundamentals of April, April goes down, but March not so much, and I don’t give a shit about those Quakers because my losses from going short in April are offset by the gains from going long in March. This is why we hedge.

 

am i missing something here or is this specific to the natural gas market - aren't you long the march-april spread which would mean you're fundamentally bullish? and a better expression wouldve been short april-may?

 
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Not a trader but this always was hard to understand for me too until I understood something very essential that you probably don't realise. Whenever you long/short a security, what you are buying is not just 1 risk but a collection of "risks". You get rewarded (or punished) for holding said risks. 

E.g. Super simple example: you're holding Sony stock. Sony stock can move for a number of reasons - they have music, movies, video game divisions. They're also in the Nikkei Japan index. They're a big player in VR too. Say the only reason you wanted to trade Sony is because you believed Spiderman movies (made by Sony Pictures) were going to do better in theatres than expected. You only want to trade that risk. You don't want to be exposed to the risk that the Japan index shits the bed or that Spotify suddenly cuts the amount they're giving to music labels like Sony's or that a study on video games comes out that proves they really  do cause school shootings (these are purposefully ridiculous just to drive the point). All these are external factors that might take down Sony stock so you hedge against them maybe by shorting the Nikkei/music labels/video game studios to attempt to net out (hedge) the exposure to these risks which are outside of your thesis.

So TLDR: buying any assets means buying into not one risk but a bunch of risks. Normally you only want to bet on a limited number of risks so you hedge out the other ones.

 

This is an excellent explanation!

Let me add something more about hedging from a derivates point of view. In options, you buy (or sell) the right to buy or sell an underlying asset at a predetermined strike price and expiration date. In the options market, "options" are contracts that give you the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell a certain asset at a specific price within a set time period.

Imagine you own 100 shares of Company A, which is currently valued at $50 per share. You're worried the stock might go down in the next three months, but you don't want to sell it right now.

  • Buying a Put Option: You can buy a "put option" that gives you the right to sell your shares at $50 anytime within the next three months. This put option will cost you a small fee, called a "premium."

  • Stock Goes Down: Let's say Company A's stock price drops to $40. Normally, you'd lose $10 per share, or $1,000 in total. But because you have a put option, you can still sell your shares for $50 each, avoiding the $1,000 loss.

  • Stock Goes Up: If the stock price goes up instead, you'll benefit from the rise in value. You'll lose the premium you paid for the put option, but that's like the cost of your "insurance policy."

  • No Obligation: The beauty of options is you're not obligated to use them. If the stock price goes up, you simply let the option expire and enjoy your gains.

  • Limiting Risk: The key takeaway is that by buying a put option, you've limited the risk of your investment going down in value. You've essentially hedged your bet.

So, in simple terms, hedging with options is like paying a small fee for the right to protect your investment from losses. It's a way to sleep a bit easier at night, knowing you've taken steps to minimize risk.

 

It allows you to eliminate risk. In perfect situation, you can hedge all risk and make pure profit (I.e., an arbitrage opportunity). For example, one street vendor sells a bunch of bananas for $1 whereas the guy down the street sells them for $1.10. You’d buy the $1 and sell them to the other guy for $1.10 - a riskless $0.10.

Obviously pure arbitrage is pretty rare with stuff like quant reading and doesn’t really exist for retail investors.

However, you could hedge other types of risk or volatility. If you think a specific banana company is really good but don’t want the risk of the entire banana industry, you could long one share of that company and short an equal weight of the banana industry. Much smarter people on their forum could probably explain better but hope this helps.

If you wanna look deeper into the academic side of hedging, look into the Greeks (delta neutral, gamma neutral, etc).

 

Good answers so far but think it might help simplify into a "real life" context.

You've doing this "pussy shit" your entire life.  For instance, when you're applying to universities, you aren't going to just apply to ivies.  No, you're going to hedge and apply to ones you think you have a good chance of getting into to make sure you're able to attend college.  Or for a recent example in your case, you aren't going to apply to only JPM/GS/MS, rather you're gonna apply to other banks to hedge.

 

I think the easiest way to look at it is through a commodities lens since that is where the concept comes from.

Say you buy 100,000 barrels of crude oil and it is sitting in a big tank in Midland, Texas. You bought it because you plan on selling it to an exporter in Corpus Christi next month. With crude currently at ~$80.00 that would cost you $8,000,000 to buy. If the price goes down between now and then you are stuck with all the losses. For example, if prices go down $2.50/bbl you just lost $250,000. Obviously, you could have also made $250,000 if prices had gone the other way too. But that is pretty risky to just expose yourself to massive losses/gains each month. It is only a matter of time before something really bad happens and you lose millions of dollars on your way to becoming insolvent. The way to reduce that flat price risk is through hedging. Instead of just owning that crude in Midland outright why not offset your long crude position with a short futures position? The futures contract you would use to hedge would be WTI that is based on delivery in Cushing, Oklahoma. Since you own physical barrels, and your risk is that prices decline, you would short the WTI futures contract so that way any decrease in price of your physical barrels would be offset by the money you made from shorting the WTI futures. The only risk you have now is the difference in price between Midland and Cushing. The difference in price between Midland and Cushing is not constant so there could be times when the value of crude in Midland goes down 20 cents but the futures go down 25. This would mean you make 5 cents more on your hedge than you lost on the physical barrels. It could also go the other way and you lost 5 cents more on your physical barrels than you make on the hedge. It is a much better risk scenario to potentially lose 5 cents over a month than 2.50.

 

Basically Rostov's post, just very simplified. 

You're an O&G producer.  You expect to produce 1mm bbl/yr.  Commodity prices are volatile, so you want to lock in prices to protect your downside.  WTI is currently $85 and you want to lock in prices in case it falls through the floor. 

You buy swaps (hedges) for 800k bbl/yr at WTI of $70

Scenario 1:  WTI falls to $50/bbl.  80% of your volume is locked in at the swap price of $70, and you realize the downside (market prices ) on the remaining 20% 

Scenario 2:  WTI rises to $100.  80% of your volume is locked in at the swap price of $70 and you realize the upside (market prices) on the remaining 20%

 

confused by this anwer, wouldn't you just buy an instrument similar to put. Swap is receiving fixed at 70 but floating is 50 (scenario 1)? That would make sense ig. Answered my own q, but im at a shop where its IRS.

 

Dunno how to insert gifs on here, but the one of DJT leaning into the mic and saying "Wrong"

O&G producers are in the business of extracting O&G from the ground, not creating and selling financial instruments.  The notion that a $200mm PV-10 producer has the back-office to price and sell derivatives is comical, and how confidently you put forward that dumbass statement as fact is even more comical.  

 

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