Trading and Beating the Market
Been doing some reading on personal investing lately and that's got me converted to the index investing camp. It seems like in a deep market (equities) with nearly instantaneous dissemination of information, it's nearly impossible to beat the market. I want to say that opportunities to beat the market do present themselves - in the past I've outperformed with stock picks - but the more I think about it, the more I think that that was probably not due to my superior alpha generation abilities, but just due to luck (after all, ~50% of the index's return comes from securities that outperform).
Now we get to trading as a career. Despite having worked in the industry and having seen traders that can consistently generate positive PNL, it's hard to believe that I have any special insight that allows me to see something that the rest of the market is missing (even in markets with fewer participants). I've heard (from a reputable source) that if you back out the market making activity, a good portion of traders have negative lifetime PNL on the spec risk they take. I've also seen traders that do phenomenally well in one asset class fail spectacularly when it comes to taking spec risk on another.
I understand that there are ways to generate PNL that don't involve taking a view (market making; for physical traders, optimizing assets) but the bread & butter of any (risk-taking) trading business is taking spec risk, and it's hard for me to take a view when I have no informational advantage or edge. I initially got into this field because I saw the markets as a problem to "solve", but the more I observe the market, the more it just seems nonsensical, chaotic and unpredictable. Maybe that means I'm not cut out to be a trader, and if so, then so be it, but I at least want to hear WSO's thoughts on this.
Bump
I think this could very well be the case for many. There's a reason you don't see a whole lot of spec only traders on here. Most bank 'trading' positions involve execution for clients or managing risk, as apposed to pure spec.
The links in this thread don't work anymore but he documents one trade (iirc) that made $6,000 commission after moving $28,000,000 for a client, which is such a small % return that you couldn't take something similar as a spec only trade, and probably points to why market making is so predominant?
https://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forum/trading/day-in-the-life-of-a-fx-s…
You're right, the markets are chaotic and unpredictable, and I don't think it is possible to 'solve' them. For me that's what fuels the endless fascination, every day there's a new challenge and if you keep the risk low on a per position basis you can have longevity. As the saying goes "time in the market, beats timing the market.”
Super interesting discussion though, would love to hear more opinions also.
Seems like you have just came to the very basic conclusion that yes some people can beat the market and generate alpha but it is very difficult.
Financial theory tells us that you can't beat the market without having information that others don't have. And as you said, information is instantly available today. I'll stick to index investing (which is the closest to the market portfolio theory) if you want to generate consistent returns in the long-term. You may also want to adjust depending on your risk appetite (for example, you could invest a greater percentage of your portfolio in growth stocks index or emerging markets index).
I've worked in quantitative equity research in the past and there are things you can look at to see what has outperformed in the past. Some things that have worked have been buying stocks where SS ER consensus is to buy, investing in companies that engage in smart capital allocation (i.e. not buying stocks paying over a 5% dividend), and looking at each sector and industry to see what fundamentals best suit companies in that area.
That said, that does not mean that doing those things will always work or that if you do them you'll make money. These are just some things that have worked previously. Again, you could get unlucky and have none of those work.
I'm curious if people in trading have a different perspective. Perhaps I've spewed some old platitudes that everyone has heard before and plays by.
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