Trump's Trade War (Are consumers and investors SCREWED?)

On Tuesday, President Trump announced 10% tariffs on $200B of Chinese goods , further escalating a trade war with China. Naturally, China is expected to retaliate with tariffs on American goods like Soybeans, Automobiles etc. However, is ratcheting tariffs against China really going to be effective in "bringing back American steel jobs" and reining in the the PRC's Made in China 2025 strategy? Are we headed towards mutually assured destruction? In the past, China completely fucked over one of South Korea's largest grocery chains, Lotte Mart, as retaliation for South Korea agreeing to host American missile defense systems, causing them to shutter 75% of their locations in China. This demonstrates that China is willing to win at all costs; they could put 50% tariffs on American cars or they could put 800% tariffs on them if they want. Not to mention the numerous possible negative ramifications for American foreign policy and North Korea. Anyways, what exactly does the United States stand to gain from a trade war with China? I highly doubt slapping on tariffs on Chinese goods will actually help create manufacturing jobs in the United States or prevent China from eating Silicon Valley's lunch a decade or two from now. I get where Trump is coming from, but a trade war just seems like a loss for America, China, the market, and especially consumers. Is the economy SCREWED?

Comments (48)

Jul 12, 2018 - 6:32am
Blank999, what's your opinion? Comment below:

We've been at war with China regarding trade for a decade now. Trump is finally making a point to fight back.

Liberal economic and social policy has gutted manufacturing to increase profits. We've failed to think about stakeholders and only focused on shareholders. Not to mention the billions in stole IP.

Might hurt, but time is now to strike back at these countries that cry about free trade while protecting their industry at the cost of ours.

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Jul 12, 2018 - 7:08am
Soccer Mom, what's your opinion? Comment below:
TNA:
Might hurt, but time is now to strike back at these countries that cry about free trade while protecting their industry at the cost of ours.

It won't bring back any jobs. The jobs created in steel/aluminum will not outweigh those lost in automobile or farming. Trade tarifs are a net loss for the economy, domestic and international. Econ 101

Jul 12, 2018 - 9:38am
Blank999, what's your opinion? Comment below:

Trade tarrifs that lead to concessions are a net benefit.

And free trade with partners who aren't reciprocal isn't free trade at all.

Common Sense 101

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Jul 12, 2018 - 1:54pm
REPE God, what's your opinion? Comment below:

Theoretically it would indeed outweigh the jobs lost in farming because we import more from china than we export. Obviously there are other consequences, and I'm not saying the trade war is a good idea (especially because Trump doesn't act with much nuance and there's no way he's going to get the nation of China to just outright wave a white flag). But theoretical economics is very, very limited in it's practical application to the real world. Just ask the EMH guys how they did in the stock markets...

Jul 12, 2018 - 4:51pm
Blank999, what's your opinion? Comment below:

The goal isn't a white flag. The goal is concessions that make trade more fair.

Tarrifs are a tax. Correct. But if the goal is to use tarrifs to gain a long term more fair situation, it's a worthwhile temporary pain.

And you know what's a more costly tax? Losing a high paying job to artificially cheap labor overseas. How people can't do the simple math is beyond me.

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Jul 12, 2018 - 7:19pm
6969, what's your opinion? Comment below:
TNA:
But if the goal is to use tarrifs to gain a long term more fair situation, it's a worthwhile temporary pain.

Are tariffs actually going to accomplish this? I definitely understand Trump's logic of "China doesn't play fair, so we shouldn't either AMERICA FIRST" but practically I don't see that is working out..

Jul 12, 2018 - 7:44pm
Bumblebtuna_analyst, what's your opinion? Comment below:

Yah I think tariffs are actually counterproductive. If anything we could've forced China into giving concessions via barring them for the US financial system, and seizing all of their domestic investments. They couldn't reciprocate on that one either, as our foreign investments in China are measly in comparison.

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Jul 12, 2018 - 10:18pm
Blank999, what's your opinion? Comment below:

I mean what else could we do? Bomb the spratly islands? We are doing freedom of movement missions. We've basically put human rights on the back burner to keep allies. Japan is increasing military spending.

Reality is most business leaders have soured on China. The Chinese government routinely hacks both government and industry computers, steals our technology, blocks our goods from entering or being sold in China, etc.

I get why they do it, but you can't talk about free trade with partners that don't reciprocate. And the reality is our citizens have lost good paying jobs and in return saved a couple grand on consumer goods. Most of what people spend money on is locally controlled (housing, food, energy, etc).

From what I have read and how I think China will act makes me think they will open their markets some, play a little more fairly and we will be able to bring back incremental manufacturing jobs.

Will this fix things? No. But it is a small step forward and a huge political victory.

NAFTA is the bigger fish and I think you will see real concessions there.

It is sad that this is being left on Trump's plate, but someone had to do it. If Obama did this earlier on, we wouldn't have Trump. But when you hollow out the middle class, you open them up to populism. And when you have rich, highly educated and city concentrated liberals showing outright disdain for the "fly over states" you provide a ripe situation for Trump and people like Trump.

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Jul 12, 2018 - 7:15pm
6969, what's your opinion? Comment below:

Wouldn't the time to start a trade war be 2005, and not 2018 when we're probably not going to win? Can you please elucidate what actual benefit we get out of this besides hurting China at the expense of the US and market?

Jul 12, 2018 - 8:34pm
REPE God, what's your opinion? Comment below:

End result is going to be a temporary disturbance for manufacturers for two years, followed by an ultra liberal president-elect who renegotiates another shitty trade deal, comparable to the last one.

Jul 12, 2018 - 9:42pm
Blank999, what's your opinion? Comment below:

We should have done this a long ass time ago. We shipped manufacturing to China for short term profits, allowing them to steal IP, build their economy and become a formidable enemy. Their economy isn't open to US goods, they don't act in an honest matter and I wish this was done earlier.

My personal opinion of this is that China will make concessions and we will stop this. Same with europe and NAFTA.

Other presidents should have done this, but it is up to Trump now (for better or worse).

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Jul 13, 2018 - 10:35am
thexfactor336, what's your opinion? Comment below:
TNA:
Liberal economic and social policy has gutted manufacturing to increase profits.
I think you're confused. This is an oxymoron

As @Alt-Ctr-Left" mentioned, the GOP loved all those Reagan speeches about the free market and the invisible hand ... until Nov 2016 oddly enough

Jul 13, 2018 - 11:09am
Blank999, what's your opinion? Comment below:

I am not talking about liberal in the sense of US social and policital policy. I am discussing the global viewpoint. Liberal Internationalism. Both parties adopted this trash.

Jul 12, 2018 - 1:20pm
Alt-Ctr-Left, what's your opinion? Comment below:

Opinions from Trump boot-lickers like @TNA" cannot be taken seriously, as they dare not criticize their Dear Leader even when it's obvious he's in way over his head. (How's that Nobel Peace Prize coming TNA? Pompeio and the boys have gotten the run-around from NK ever since the grand mission accomplished summit).

The truth is tariffs are ultimately a tax on the end user, and a massive interference into free trade - two things the Republican party were previously adamantly against until, oh, 2016. China has no voters to answer to, so they will hold out as long as necessary and escalate the trade war until the U.S. succumbs. In the meantime, I'll pop popcorn and laugh at all the farmers and steelworkers who voted for their own demise.

"I don't know how to explain to you that you should care about other people."

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Jul 12, 2018 - 4:49pm
Blank999, what's your opinion? Comment below:

I'm shook. Expecting peace in a couple of weeks is comical. And we don't have free trade.

Rest of your post is worthless.

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Jul 12, 2018 - 7:47pm
Alt-Ctr-Left, what's your opinion? Comment below:

For those throwing monkey shit, I'd greatly welcome a thorough refutation of my points. I suspect it's just inexperienced college kids rooting for your team colors because "CNN=cancer!!!11!"

"I don't know how to explain to you that you should care about other people."

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Jul 13, 2018 - 12:10am
Alt-Ctr-Left, what's your opinion? Comment below:

Ah, yes. No one willing to actually have an intellectual discussion, just throw monkey shit. Perfectly emblematic of the Republican party I left.

"I don't know how to explain to you that you should care about other people."

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Jul 13, 2018 - 10:20am
shyguy88, what's your opinion? Comment below:

I'm more worried about trade relations with Mexico than with China. Mexico is a less rational (now socialist) player and it accounts for a greater proportion of U.S. exports.

Jul 13, 2018 - 4:12pm
Blank999, what's your opinion? Comment below:

New leftist Mexican President wants to expand border policing on his southern border.

What people don't realize is that all these southern countries have strict border controls. Try walking into Canada and just staying. Ain't gonna happen.

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Jul 13, 2018 - 5:30pm
Anonymous Monkey, what's your opinion? Comment below:

I've already predicted all this months ago. Everything we are seeing regarding a strong and well performing economy has been artificially fabricated by the Trump administration. There may be short-term profit and success coming from it, however in the long-term, we are basically digging ourselves a grave...Except America will never fail because we just bail out the failed institutions with taxpayer money and/or exploit people, resources, and other parts of the world.

https://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forums/sohow-are-you-liking-those-tax-cuts-so-far-lol

Jul 13, 2018 - 5:31pm
Blank999, what's your opinion? Comment below:

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