This is awesome.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanvardi/2012/08/1…
At 24, Abdikarimov only tracked regional mining companies, but he figured that fundamental financial analysis would basically be the same for a social media company as it is for a uranium miner.“Facebook’s initial public offering was one of the most overhyped IPOs in history,” says Abdikarimov, who works for IFG Continent, a boutique Kazakh investment bank. “Before Facebook going public many investors said ‘why don’t you guys give us some piece of advise’ and so gee why not.”
Abdikarimov got to work on his Facebook valuation in March and by May he had come to a conclusion that would have caused many on Wall Street to lose their lunch: Abdikarimov slapped a $24.62 price target on the stock prior to the IPO; he issued a sell recommendation on Facebook after its IPO priced for $38. He also put his sell recommendation on Bloomberg, where it still stands out as carrying the lowest price target among research analysts. It’s also the lowest research analyst target according to FactSet Research, too.
Mine's lower.
-Everyone
So now price look like sleeve of wizard. How you make sure this not happen to my investment?
"to research Facebook he says he opened a Facebook account for the first time and tested the product."
$14 price target FTW
I'm hoping for a short term rally so I can bet on a sell off at the end of the year.
same...hoping it climbs back to $30/share again
I wanted to bet on GRPN today but was too puss worrying about a possible short squeeze.
Should make a pool for which IPO of the bunch hits -90% or gets delisted first.
"Best valuation! King of the castle, king of the castle!"
"$14, wa wa weee wa"
I have my doubts about any near-term rally due to the expiration of lockup dates:
August 17th, 2012: 271 million shares will become eligible October 16th, 2012: 247 million shares will become eligible November 14th, 2012: 1.2 Billion shares
Current float is ~420M shares, meaning the number of shares in the market could potentially increase by 4x over the next 3 months. No guarantee, but that should pressure the stock price over the next 3 months. For comparison, GRPN's lockup expired on June 1st. GRPN closed 5/31 at 10.64, then 9.69 on 6/1 (down 9%) and 8.95 on 6/4 (down 8.5%).
Speaking of GRPN, I entered into some puts last Friday and gritted my teeth through the pain today. Hopefully I get out of the trade solidly in the black tomorrow. :)
These guys won't have short squeezes because it costs too much to borrow them.
The puts on GRPN won't start getting traction til it threatents to cross sub-5, but I'm right there with you dawg
Thanks for the insight.
GRPN is not too far away from sub-5 after today. Another 1.3B in market cap wiped out.
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