So what do you guys think will happen come November? Trump was a shoe-in a few months back, but with COVID and BLM protests it seems there's a real race going now. Probably will come down to a few key swing states like PA, MI, etc. Obviously it's "too soon to call" but curious what sentiment is in US.
*
"Examining eight states where at least three polls had been conducted since May 1, FiveThirtyEight found that Biden was comfortably ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin, both of which Trump narrowly carried in 2016."
"In the Great Lake State, Biden was ahead by an average of over seven points—49.8 to 42.2, with one poll putting him 12 points ahead of Trump, 53 percent to 41 percent. Meanwhile, in the Badger State, Biden was ahead by an average of 6.2 percent, 47.8 to 41.5."
"In Arizona, which Trump carried by 3.5 points in 2016, Biden is ahead by 3.3 points, while the key swing state of Florida also saw Biden ahead by 2.5 points. In Pennsylvania, the pair were more or less even and Trump was unsurprisingly ahead in Texas and Georgia, although his lead on those red states has been cut."
- Newsweek *
Trump will do everything remotely possible to get in the voters' favor until November. No matter what the aftermath will be.
I expect stuff like more tax cuts, being tough on China/Russia and maybe even something more out of the ordinary like putting pressure on health officials to shell out some COVID vaccine or pressuring the FED into doing helicopter money.
Whatever it will be, it will be highly visible and understandable to the average Joe.
What's the thoughts on outcomes in key swing states like North Carolina, Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin?
If the election was today, I think Penn, Michigan, Arizona, and Wisconsin would lean Democratic and Biden would win. However, he is going to face a lot of scrutiny over his VP choice and his performance in the debates. Trump could make quite a few mistakes in these next 5 months and it would barely affect him since his supporters already believe the media is against him. If Biden makes big mistakes, it could really hurt him. Hilary had a big lead at this point over Trump as well but Trump knows how to ridicule his opponents and win audiences over. Also, COVID-19 could hurt voter turnout, which hurts Democrats and helps Republicans. Race is a tossup right now.
yeah I’m in AZ. I heard that Biden sees his path to winning is through Arizona. It seems like all college kids are really trying to rally together and encourage everyone to vote, especially in light of the BLM protests.
This is very good, but one thing needs to be corrected. At this point, Hillary was leading the polls by +1.5. Biden is leading the polls by +8.
Hillary's "big lead" was nothing compared to what Biden's currently is.
Edit: Throw monkeyshit all you want. Nothing in this post is factually incorrect.
I do not think Biden is a very good candidate but If it is a fair election, I think the current Potus will probably lose. I think WSO is a good barometer for moderate -right views and 3 years ago,it seemed like the majority of people here were pro Trump or at least anti the other side. Now it seems to be more evenly split, which may mean Trump is losing some support.
this is a very fair point
this site has just gone to shit with all THE GOT DAYUMN LIBS!!1!one!
You have to give the edge to Biden right now, but if debates are held and he looks and sounds as senile as he has recently at some times, that’d be bad news for him. His VP pick may be seen as especially important given his apparent mental state.
It’s telling that he hasn’t been being covered heavily by the media during these protests.
I think some people are making too big of a deal about Biden's debating abilities. This is not his first rodeo and it is not like he is going against someone who is very knowledgeable with strong debating skills
A few years ago he could have destroyed Trump in a debate, but he sounds like a different person now.
Two high energy and unfiltered old men going at each other.
I don't think anyone has a clear advantage in debates. Trump is gonna try to ridicule Biden and vice versa. Biden isn't HC. Dude can be as much of a savage as Trump.
I'm really gonna enjoy the debates.
Trump had to use two hands to drink a glass of water, mumbled through a speech to West Point grads, and then could barely manage to make his way down a ramp.
Spare me the "Biden is old" bullshit
Biden can’t put together a single sentence sometimes. Trump is old and says dumb things, but Biden is clearly losing some of his mental capabilities.
Biden can't go an entire interview without looking like a dementia fueled laughing stock. Theres a reason the democrats are doing everything they can to keep him from talking too much.
The last thing anyone team Biden wants is him in front of a microphone speaking at will.
It's interesting when people point to Biden's mental state, given that something is clearly wrong with trump's health. It's true that Biden doesn't appear as sharp as he did a few years ago, but trump argubly appears worse.
Biden has always been known for his gaffes and overcame a stutter many years. The debates are dangerous for both candidates in terms of perception.
They are more dangerous for Joe because he has more to lose. Trump's base will not leave him if he appears to be senile in the debates. However, I think Joe probably has a lot of support from independent voters as of today, but could lose a good portion of those if he is losing his train of thought during debates. If this happens, I think turnout could be disappointing.
Trump is not looking strong, and the polling reflects that. But it is striking how Biden has been almost a total nonfactor in the recent political turmoil of COVID and the protests/riots. He's mostly been holed up at home, making increasingly uncomfortable gaffs in short interviews with friendly media personalities. His mental state seems to be deteriorating. Trump acts like a bozo as always, but Biden could look really bad over the course of several long debates.
This is also factually incorrect. Biden marched and met with protesters at least twice, met with Black leaders multiple times, met with George Floyd's family, etc.
Meanwhile, Trump struggles with drinking water with one hand, mispronounces generals' names, and can't walk down ramps.
Stop spreading nonsense.
"can't walk down ramps"? Have you even watched the video? Or are you just going off CNN bullshit?
trump deosn't act "as always", he's clearly deteriorating, we just don't know why. He's to the point where he slurs words in the majority of his speaking engagements...he wasn't doing that at the outset.
Perhaps one of you can give a Brit some perspective.
Biden said in 1977 that a part of proposed desegregation would cause a “racial jungle”. If you said that at any point in my country, you’d be permanently unelectable.
How is he not getting called out on it every time he shows his face?
Because America is 30 years behind the rest of the developed world in the case of civil rights and most black people like and trust Obama
Because he has the support of the media
Because Black Americans have voted overwhelming Democrat since the late 1960s because part of the Republican Party's "Southern Strategy" to victory under Nixon and Reagan was to embrace white racist voters. Biden was the VP to the first Black President. Biden was strongly against Apartheid.
Meanwhile, Trump's father was literally in the KKK and Trump has been a racist his entire life - including taking out a full page ad to call for the death penalty for 5 falsely accused black people in NYC in 1989.
In short, imperfect allies are better than enemies.
holy shit do you hear yourself right now? reread what you just wrote, you sound like a butt hurt lefty. Please provide sources for your claims that his father was in the KKK. Trump being a racist? Last I checked he wasn't exactly lynching blacks and shooting hispanics. Sure he might be prejudiced, but he's not a flat out racist. You are mistakenly using the word racist.
Yup things change over 30 years, people forget.
Biden wrote the Violent crime control and law enforcement act and got it though congress that directly lead to 100,000 new police officers and close to $10 billion in police funding in 1994. This lead to mass incarceration rates and gave the police an ok to be more aggressive as we see today.
But with American politics, it looks like we’re stuck between a rock and a hard place.
This was also highly supported by Black leaders at the time and was a bipartisan bill.
538 got it wrong in 2016, don't think anyone can really predict it. Could go either way. I think it'll be close.
Kind of. Hillary Clinton still won the popular vote but she obviously wasn't the easy shoo-in that people believed would happen. I think Biden has much better support, especially in swing states, but he could easily screw up along the way given how senile he is
No they didn't. They gave Hillary something like a 71% chance to win (number might be different - I'm going off memory here) and things broke in Trump's favor due to higher than expected white non college educated voters in specific battleground states.
If you have less likely chance to do something, and you still manage to do it, that doesn't mean the odds were wrong. That just means the less likely chance happened.
Trump is going to lose in November, and he'll try to do everything in his power to shink the ship between Nov - Jan. It's gonna be a shit show of unprecedented proportions.
I honestly think that the only reason Trump wants to stay in office, is to avoid any civil prosecutions - because I can only assume that there's enough financial dirt on him by now, to have a solid case. My guess is that his "master plan" was to remain in office for two terms, and then retire in too poor health to be prosecuted. (Mark my words, the second someone prosecutes him as a civilian, he'll get diagnosed with something heavy like Alzheimer's).
I'm not a Biden fan, but it's pretty easy to see that Trump won't be winning this time around. He's alienating his base left and right, while f**king up every crisis so far.
But as for what he's going to do? Probably tank the economy. I hope he's not the type of guy that would start a war just out of spite, but you never know.
I am growing concerned about the potential for voter suppression that may be caused strategically by the right. Mail in ballots being outlawed, closing down polling stations, and just hoping to get as few people to vote as possible thus giving the incumbent the advantage.
Historically, this has been what power hungry leaders have always done- retain power by any means necessary.
If Trump was really smart, he’d have Ivanka run for him. He can pull the “Now the Dems are really trying to stop the first woman President?” card over and over. I doubt this will happen because Donald needs his ego stroked constantly.
In America this type of stuff isn’t THAT unprecedented, in a more macro view of human history, this type of stuff is commonplace.
If the election was held today, it would be an utter blowout in Biden's favor. That doesn't mean that it will be - things can certainly change over 5 months - but to pretend that Trump could win with his current numbers is flat out denying reality at this point. Now before the predictable amounts of monkey shit comes my way - accepting this reality doesn't mean that you have to approve of it. You can still hate Biden, or "the Libs," or whatever all you want, but none of that denies what the numbers show.
Here are national polls that show an absolutely massive gap. Biden is averaging +8 nationally. For reference, at this point in the year, Hillary was averaging only +1.5. Even Obama, in winning elections, was only up +1.3 in 2012 and +1.4 in 2008. +8 is absurd.
But of course, America doesn't elect Presidents with a national popular vote, so let's look at battleground state averages:
Arizona: Biden +3.4
Florida: Biden +3.4
Iowa: Trump +1.5 (As a note, Trump won Iowa by +9.5 in 2016)
Michigan: Biden +8.5 (including a +16 poll that just came out today)
Minnesota: Biden +5
Nevada: Biden +4
New Hampshire: Biden +4.6
North Carolina: Trump +0.3 (As a note, Trump won North Carolina by +3.7 in 2016)
Ohio: Trump +0.5 (As a note, Trump won Ohio by +8.1 in 2016)
Arizona: Biden +3.3
Arizona: Trump +1.5 (As a note, Trump won Texas by +9.0 in 2016)
Arizona: Biden +9.7
Arizona: Biden +4.0
So, you take the 2016 electoral college map and adjust for these changes, and it looks like this:
Not a landslide in the electoral college like it will be in the popular vote, but certainly a decisive victory.
Again, this has nothing to do with your personal politics or which candidate you prefer, and of course, things can certainly change between now and November. Still, as of now, it is not close.
Edit: WSO keeps messing up the links in in the posts and changing random states and links to "Arizona" for some reason. You can look the numbers up yourself on the linked website though.
From a completely a-political POV, didn't all the polls have Clinton winning in 2016?
I'm not sure if Trump voters are being polled, they certainly weren't last time.
No.
I think people forget how weak Hillary was and how much that helped Trump. For people on the right, she was a motivator bc they viscerally hate her. For some people on the left, there was resentment about her screwing Bernie. For people in the middle . . she is hands down the least inspiring public speaker to ever run. Her delivery is awful.
I think Trump is in a lot of trouble just because he doesn’t have her to run against. Biden is totally senile but mark my words, he’s going to appear suddenly normal in debates because they’re going to give him stimulants. Watch and see.
This is spot on. Biden is outperforming Hillary in almost every metric.
This is conspiracy theory nonsense.
You’re going to see a big gap between random clips of him looking/sounding awful, and bigger stage performances (debates and other large audiences) where he manages to temper down those concerns when it counts most.
People will make their excuses . . “maybe he just gets extra rest for the big ones” etc. Those people also think Barry Bonds was just a harder worker in the twilight of his career.
Idk why he thinks this is a consipracy theory nonsense. But Biden is very articulate where it counts. I've even been thinking that his gaffs might be intentional. When he wants to nail down a message, he'll be very articulate. But at low stakes situations, he's okay showing his vulnerabilities perhaps because people might emphasize more(?). Average American doesn't like smart-asses...
It's the "because they're going to give him stimulants" part, and for a couple reasons.
The first problem with it is the idea that Joe Biden would "need stimulants" but Donald Trump wouldn't because it reinforces the meme that Biden is "too old" while Trump is some virile youngster. Trump's regression over the past 5 years has been rather shocking:
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1271849561129091073
Either both of them are two old (which, let's be honest, is true) or neither of them are. The idea that Biden is senile and Trump is all together upstairs is absurd.
The second problem with it is the idea that literally anyone wouldn't drink caffeine or something before a big live performance that would start at 8 or 9pm. Shit - I know I would, and I wouldn't have to be "given" it in some conspiratorial manner, I'd just go pour myself a cup of coffee.
After your posts on covid, namely the absolute confidence that it wouldn't be an issue despite increasing evidence to the contrary, I'm surprised to see you call someone else senile.
Because I was wrong about a prediction? I predict things for a living. If you're going to hold me to what I predict on WSO, at least also hold me to the time I said in mid-March that it's time to go 100% long on the riskiest stocks. Not gonna pretend I'm always that correct, but at least be fair about it.
If theres one consistent thing about his takes, it's that he makes it sound like he's got it all figured out, only to be proven completely wrong and look like a moron.
This senility statement is utter nonsense. trump arguably displays more evidence of senility than Biden. It's true that Biden doesn't appear as sharp as a few years ago, but he's sharper than trump. Biden has always been prone to gaffes.
Its utter nonsense to say Biden is senile? OK
You want to compare him to Trump, that's fine. I wasn't doing that. I was making a different point, which is "Biden is senile but he can mask it."
But to call it nonsense that Biden is senile, is ridiculous. Everyone knows he is. Type "senile" into google images and you'll see a bunch of scattered pics of old people and a few of Biden.
I think PA will end up going for Biden. My relatives in more rural PA (aka not Pitt or Philly) were huge Trump supporters back in '16. They are also 1) former steel workers who miss working in the mills "like their Pappy and his Pappy 'fore him", 2) are lower middle class and need money/jobs, and 3) are pretty fuckin racist, even if they don't actually realize it. These were ideal Trump supporters back in the day but they all hate him now. They can't really articulate why they hate him, but they do.
I'm right there with you with a similar story.
Hard core MAGA people don't realize how many people voted for Trump to "give him a chance" only to see how poorly he handled COVID and how he is clearly not up to bring a nation together in the midst of this racial tension. He is not a leader, and only cares about himself, and you don't have to be a PhD in Political Science to see that.
The tweeting, the personal attacks, the conspiracy theories, and all of the bullshit are driving people away from him and the numbers reflect it.
Exactly. The former supporters I talked to were all about his promises to go back to the way things once were, where they could just have union jobs that used to be good again and their part of the country wouldn't be hemorrhaging population anymore. While I did not support Trump, I do get this sentiment. The empty storefronts in Springfield, abandoned blast furnaces in the Lehigh Valley, and dilapidated houses in Youngstown all speak for themselves louder than any politician. They wanted him to bring all of that back and were OK with overlooking his other stuff in support of it, but now that he didn't do it, they kind of see him as an asshole.
I am in the burbs of PA and my impression is that we will go heavy for Biden, even though some of us do not think he is a very good candidate.
Out of curiosity, what kinds of conversations do you have with your family members to address the fact that they are "pretty fuckin racist"?
Uhh a couple of them hated Obama and referred to him as "an ape" and as "the n****r" on a few occasions. Also there was this carnival game that came to their town one year where there was deadass a game where you shoot at Obama and they all played it. Just like normal racist shit, casual use of the n-word even though they have black friends in their neighborhood, so idk wtf goes through their heads. These are examples from central PA, eastern PA, and western MA.
Biden 2020 "You know the thing!"
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1271849561129091073?lang=en
I've talked to a lot of far left people (think hard core Bernie fans) and while they are not thrilled with Biden, they state they will be voting for him and not sitting out. I think this is a lot different from 2016 where people who were not fans of Hillary didn't show up, and Trump didn't seem too far right at the time. 2020 is much different. Already states are offering mail in votes which will make it much easier to vote this cycle. I think Biden as of current, will win.
This is a big point that people need to keep in mind. A lot of further left supporters sat out the last election. I simply do not see that happening this time. From moderate to far left, I think that most people generally understand that this time its just about not losing.
What is far more interesting to me is where the Republican party will go after Trump is utterly defeated.
Will it be a return to fiscal responsibility even after Trump ballooned the national debt?
Will it be a return to libertarian ideals even after Trump has flirted with autocrats and autocracy for four years?
Will it be a return to attempting to re-claim the moral highground after Trump, a thrice divorced man who is not religious in any way and has credibly been accused by over 20 women of sexual assault, was the head of the party?
Will it be a return to supporting small business after Trump's cronyism, grifting, and PPP failure to help them?
Will they just double down and elevate someone who advocates for Trump-like positions but isn't a complete moron?
Will Donald Trump Jr be the next Republican nominee for President?
Neither party seems to be on solid, stable footing. Biden, assuming he wins, will be a 1 term president. 2024 will be interesting. On the Republican side, I think it'll be typical/traditional conservatives (e.g. Rubio, Nikki Haley, Pence, etc.) that are fighting for the nomination. On the Democrat side, it seems wide open. Biden and Bernie will be too old. Warren perhaps, but I think she has likability issues, and is also on the older side. Joe's VP may have a good chance. Perhaps people like Booker will have greater name recognition next time around and have a shot.
I think the Republican platform in 2024 will be a response to whatever happens during a Biden presidency (again assuming he wins). Yes, they'll try to position themselves as fiscally responsible (lol), and try to take the moral high ground (but other than the last 3.5 years, which party hasn't strongly advocated this about themselves?). But as much as that, they'll need to try to unify people in some manner, as the Democrats will spend the next 4 years pushing for things Republicans hate, especially if they win the Senate - more emphasis on our differences (identity politics) than similarities and shared beliefs, spending on things to combat climate change, raising taxes, a return to Obama-like foreign policy where our ultimate goal is to try to get along with other countries rather than projecting strength and supporting allies like Israel, and plenty of self-flagellation about our country's past sins. At this point, it's hard to imagine any of the current big names trying to unite the country. While I don't like Rubio and don't know anything about Haley, I think the Republicans should hope that they have a couple strong women or 2nd-generation immigrants like them that could actually pick up some independent voters - something Pence will not do with his boring, rich white guy look and perception of his anti-LGBT views.
I agree with that completely.
It will be interesting the see what the Democratic party does over the next 4-8 years. The progressive surge is certainly growing in power and influence, but Biden's obliteration of Bernie in the primary also shows that it has a ceiling. Gen Z is seemingly super progressive, but how much of that is an actual worldview versus simply being 16-18 years old.
I'm really curious as well. But I hope it returns back to more reasonable positions that New England Republicans (fiscally conservative, socially moderate to progressive, with an open mind to Keynesian SSN ideas. ie. HW Bush) still hold.
I sure hope so. For the last 50 years, no one but Bill Clinton was able to achieve budget surplus. Looks like Trump actually increased the deficit rate. If one thing that everyone should agree on is that you want a budget surplus when things are going well. (FUCK MMT idiots for saying otherwise) I'd really like to see this happen. But it doesn't seem like a possibility considering the lack of voice that these people have. No one knows who Bill Weld is anymore, I was surprised he actually won 1 delegate during the primaries. MA governor Charlie Baker is almost never brought up on the national media. How many Libertarian leaning Republicans does the media pay attention to nowadays? 0. Who knows man. Lots of the Evangelicals and Fundamentalist Christian leaders are already morally corrupt, using religion as a way to make money and gain fame. False Prophets have invaded modern Protestantism. I think this will be a general trend from both parties. Difference being, Democrats will want to do it at the expense of big businesses and Republicans will screw it up by proposing dumb ways to help small businesses. Point is, politicians nowadays are too dumb to pass any reasonable legislation. Like Josh Hawley, the senator from MO? There's a real chance depending on who steps up to consolidate the party after Trump. Hell nooo. I don't hink he has the brains of other Republican luminaries or the showmanship of his father.I think Biden has the chance to realign the Republican party to be far more center.. Assuming he doesn't carry out any super far left policies or he dies in office and a far left VP takes his place, the republicans would need to push a moderate, sensible candidate to pick up votes from Biden. A repeat of Trump isn't going to work.
He will most definitely claim fraud, a conspiracy, a hoax, etc. when he loses. Luckily, our military is loyal to the constitution and the country, not Donald Trump.
And if he wins, Democrats will claim voter fraud too.
Biden is going to win in a landslide, which is sad because he is a walking corpse at this point.
I'm at the point where I might vote straight ticket dem just to accelerate the collapse of the GOP. What a pathetic party. Your presidential nominees over the past 20 years have been the following: neocon dummy who should be tried at the Hague for what he did in Iraq, ultra neocon 'Maverick' who we all should be thankful never had his hand on the nuclear football, a fairly competent guy but still a cuck on culture war issues and immigration (marching with BLM lol), and a stupid boomer gameshow host.
Trump is a huge cuck and also an utter moron to boot. No leadership qualities whatsoever and backstabbed the base that helped get him elected. No border wall, trimming around the edges on immigration, bending the knee to BLM (he's going to do this you watch), FP basically straight neocon, corporate tax cuts at the height of the recovery lmfao, CARES act which bailed out F500s and will be incredibly re-distributionary. etc, etc. This stupid boomer should tweet "law & order" another time to see if it works.
Sorry had to get this out of my system
Oh yeah and I'm really happy we got "muh judges" from the Federalist Society. Nominating 'originalist' judges who read in protections for sexually confused people into civil rights legislation is what we all signed up for.
Do you have opposition towards protections for members of the LGBTQ+ community?
I'm pretty unhappy with the current state of the GOP, but its seems to be for different reasons. For me, I dislike the right wing populist positions like trade protectionism, weakening our global influence with foreign policy mishaps, and the abandonment of fiscal responsibility. It seems like you wish Trump was more nationalist, though, and I can't see how the GOP will be any stronger should Tucker Carlson and Tom Cotton types become the face of the party. Out of curiosity, what do you hope a new and improved would GOP look like?
Says the guy who wore a MAGA hat to get out of lunch with Phil Rosenthal
The new season is truly a work of art
Isn't it a bit too soon to assume Trump will be defeated? I hear this idea echoed a lot in the above, but Trump is the master media manipulator and a political buzzsaw that dismembered 17 seasoned Republican candidates in 2016. 2016 was the 24/7 Trump-Show, where all eyes were on him and the things he said - likely as not all to get media attention. Even here in Asia it was all-Trump all-the-time. Now he has the bully pulpit and a desperate need to win.
It is.
We are closer to Super Tuesday than we are to the election. 5 months ago, we had 40 million more Americans employed, 115,000 Americans hadn't died from COVID-19, and millions of people weren't in the streets because of police brutality. In short, a whole lot of shit can happen between now and November.
That +8 national polling average will undoubtedly shrink, grown, shrink again, grow again, etc. between now and November. The media will write pieces about Biden's inevitability, Trump's comeback, Biden's comeback, Trump's ascension, etc.
My point in all this is that the numbers at this point in time are undeniable. That doesn't mean they can't or won't change, but the polling discrepancy is massive. Democratic turnout in the primaries is through the roof, even in places like Georgia.
Trump is in no way expanding his base or inspiring more people to vote for him who wouldn't already. His ads are written for Fox News viewers. His interviews are with Fox News or his own campaign. If you aren't in the right wing media expanded universe, some of the shit he says doesn't even remotely make sense to you because it isn't remotely attached to reality.
Trump sees these horrible poll numbers and calls his friends to try and get them to tell him they're wrong instead of trying to improve them. His lawyers send letters to CNN because he doesn't like the poll numbers and he hires a hilariously discredited group to "review" the poll in his favor. That is wild to me - a poll is a poll - and you win elections by winning voters. If you get a bad poll, it should be a sign to try to win more voters, not pretend like the poll is "fake."
All of this is a losing strategy. That isn't to say that Trump can't win, because after the 2020 we've had already I'm not going to actually predict anything, but it is becoming increasingly less likely that he will win.
Perhaps most importantly, it didn't have to be this way. Imagine if, riding high on a booming stock market, Trump had responded incredibly to the COVID crisis like New Zealand or South Korea did. As death counts grew in Europe and Asia, Trump's strong response would have catapulted him to an approval rating actually above 50%. When protests broke out about police brutality, imagine if Trump would have immediately tweeted that the police need to be fixed and went out and maybe talked to some protesters. Sure, people would still hate him, but he's not trying to win the Sanders supporters - he's trying to win suburban moms in Pennsylvania. What if he would have pushed Republicans to pass a relief bill giving $2,000 a month to every American for 6 months? What if he would have given a speech decrying racism AND looting and urged the country to come together? All of these would be massive political wins and he would be coasting to re-election.
Instead, he's Donald Trump. His is incapable of leadership, empathy, or long-term strategic thinking. This current crisis was a once in a lifetime opportunity for him and he blew it in every way imaginable.
Trump is the king of unforced errors and missed opportunities.
I blame it on the people around him. Anyone with any shred of competency has bailed. It's not just the Mattis or Cohn level either, all the deputies and support staff are utter fucking trash. He literally has a 23 year old director from GWU. Why? He hires on "loyalty", which is not a Lincoln-esqe Team of Rivals loyalty, where his people tell him the deal straight because then they can read-react-respond correctly.Instead, to Trump, loyalty is being a yes-man. So they get fuck-up after fuck-up.
I don't understand how conservatives like this guy because he always trips over himself and gets none of their priorities done. It's been taxes...that's it. Everything else is executive orders. As a liberal, I feel like I'm playing the Mets - we might be down but you know they're gonna cock it all up in the 9th inning.
deleted.
As someone who doesn't know too much about politics, can someone please explain the importance of Biden's selected VP?
Also, I don't know why Trump does these things to himself. If he simply went on record saying we have a police brutality problem (some, not all), a race problem, a human problem, IF HE ADMITTED THE US HAS ANY PROBLEM, he would have a larger potential voter base. I mean it's so simple to denounce violence towards the people and to denounce racism, but for some reason, he can't bring himself to do it.
Historically it's not that important. But given Biden's advanced age (not just quantitative age but the signs he shows), I think his VP pick has more importance because that person is more likely to become president than prior VPs.
And I'm not primarily referring to dying in office . . more that Biden would step aside after one term. At which point any Democrat is eligible but there's an opportunity to pick the VP now with that event in mind, and then that VP has the pole position 4 years later.
It matters for two reasons:
Studies have shown that almost no one votes for a ticket because of the VP, but candidates typically pick a VP to shore up a perceived political weakness and help drive narrative.
In Hillary's case, maintaining her "Blue Wall" was essential, and her campaign thought that if they could secure Virginia through Tim Kaine, they'd be set. Ultimately that was misguided, as they won Virginia easily but lost rust belt states. Womp.
Trump picked Pence because Pence is extremely evangelical and Trump recognized that he needed evangelical support since he is...hilariously immoral and non-religious. This was a great pick for him.
Biden's main weakness is that he is old, but within his own party, he is also a moderate, male, and white. A VP pick for him should be someone younger, more left wing, and arguably black given the last few weeks. If not all of those, it should at least check some of the boxes, to show a "united party" heading into the fall.
Now, all of that is campaign related. The actual most important thing is that the VP is second in line to the Presidency if the President dies or is incapacitated, so the VP needs to be someone capable of actually leading the country. This is what happened with Sarah Palin - she was seen as a great political pick, but the country quickly found out that she was in no way capable of leading the country if John McCain died. With Joe Biden being older than dirt, this will have a particular level of importance this year.
If you look at all the names people talk about - Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, Susan Rice, Val Dennings, Stacy Abrams, etc. - they all have positives and negatives about them. The Biden campaign will do a lot of polling, vetting, and talking to each of these people and then pick one that will hopefully help them both politically and give the country confidence that if Biden dies, someone capable will replace him.
Because he is a narcissistic moron who is incapable of leadership, empathy, or long-term strategic thinking. Not only do his actions not make sense for the country - they don't even make sense for him.
The other piece of the VP puzzle is that it is a very real possibility that Biden, if he wins, calls it a day in 2024 - setting up the VP for a clear run at the office.
I can almost guarantee it will be a Black woman (it should be, honestly). Val Demings is my personal pick as she is a former police commissioner and probably the best person to address the Police brutality issue, but Stacey Abrams is charismatic as fuck.
Rice is great but I think there is too much baggage.
Fragile/Toxic Masculinity is a terrible thing...
Polls mean nothing. In 2016 the polls predicted Hillary would win very favorably, and look what happened.
My prediction? Trump is going to win 2020 easily, we're going to see a repeat of 2016. Reasons being: - He took action and gave people a form of UBI, CARES act definitely winning him some approval/love - Trump supporters are not from big cities, they're primarily in the midwest and small/medium sized towns, aka the vast majority of the United States, no democrat is supported in those areas - BLM is only seen predominantly in big Democrat run and dominated cities, there are literally few to none protests or people who care in the rest of the United States, as far as I see it, the reality is that the BLM is a very minor protest that will most likely not bring about any change. Change will probably be seen once the older generation begins to die off and the current generation becomes the new older generation and implements their policies. So change will be seen in 10-20 years from now, not today. - Biden is seen as just another shill democrat and he's only secured the votes of loyal democratic voters, supporters of other democratic candidates, and those that can't stand Trump. Swing voters are weary of Biden and would rather stick with another 4 years of Trump since they'd rather stick with what they know than the unknown of a Biden presidency. - Covid 19 is still around and Americans and the world want payback. Trump was anti-China from the beginning of his campaign in 2016 and has attacked China relentlessly from the get go. That is something that will aid him in the campaign for 2020. - Once they get to the debates, Trump being Trump, will just shit all over Biden especially since Biden can't even form a coherent thought while Trump is just sharp and ready to talk shit with ease. That's definitely something that got him hype during the 2016 election and it's definitely going to win him some hype again.
Over all I've found people who think Trump will lose are often living in their own bubble and don't go out to see how the rest of the US lives and thinks. Much like with Hillary where all the big cities and university students thought that she was going to win, they totally misjudged how normal people in middle America think and live. Trump understands this demographic and because of that he's going to win.
Finally. I was waiting for this.
Polls don't predict things. Polls are samples of voters - nothing more, nothing less. They can be used to predict things, but they do not predict things themselves.
Prediction models most definitely predicted Hillary's victory, using percentages. FiveThirtyEight is one of the most accurate and gave her approximately a 71% (from memory - might be a little different) chance of winning. That still meant that Donald Trump had a 29% chance of winning. If a less likely thing happens, that doesn't mean the odds were wrong, just that the less likely thing happened.
Finally, any errors in polling or prediction models in no way prove that they "mean nothing."
$1,500 was a drop in the bucket and utterly meaningless. No one credits him for this.
The 2018 midterms and polling show that Trump is underwater in the suburbs. Yes, rural voters will more likely than not support him just like urban voters will more likely than not support Biden, but he can't lose the suburbs. He is.
This is also incorrect. BLM protests spread not only around the country, outside of "big Democrat run cities" but around the world. This is hilariously underrating the impact these protests have on changing beliefs in this country.
Now you're just making stuff up. How can he be a "shill democrat?" You can be a shill for something, but if you're the leader of the party, you're not a shill for yourself.
Likewise, your claims about "swing voters" or who supports Biden are not backed up by any numbers whatsoever.
Or it would have, had he not utterly failed in his own response. An amazing US response would have been terrific ammo against China's failure. Instead, the US is seen as a clownshow by our allies, let alone our enemies.
Again, no basis in reality.
Nah, you're just spouting off armchair punditry without any numbers behind it or basis in reality.
Isn't this the same community that was already talking about a Bernie presidency a few months ago?
ahem @lloydblankfein
Four months is a lifetime ago.... especially these last four months. And six months from now is a lifetime away. And to my recollection it was more of a hypothetical discussion of what might happen IF Bernie was elected. These things have market ramifications.
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