Comments (39)

Apr 22, 2020 - 12:23pm

I think it has shined a light on his poor online infrastructure, strategy, and spending. The Trump campaign is very much leading in this space.

That said, he most definitely has a chance to win. Biden is beating Trump head to head both nationally and in North Carolina, Arizona, Virginia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and is even tied in Florida of all places - which should be a Trump stronghold.

Meanwhile, Trump's overall approval rating, his "direction of the country" approval rating, and his COVID_19 response approval rating are all in the toilet.

People will be voting against Trump as much as they'll be voting for Biden. This will be a referendum election.

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Apr 22, 2020 - 12:43pm

I think it largely depends on how quickly we recover from this crisis, and how the 'aftermath' so to speak is handled by Trump. My assorted thoughts below - in no particular order on this.

  • Of course the media will focus on him, that's going to be a given. My guess is they'll use him as a conduit to hold up whomever his female VP is - which is really what matters on the ticket. Chances are we'll have VEEP in real life, where Biden is incapacitated and she becomes the first woman president. If you are voting democrat - vote the VP, Biden is irrelevant.

  • I think that influences his chances the most, whomever his VP pick. I will tell you that I'm beginning to tire of partisanship - this bullshit of "I HATE TRUMP - I DON'T CARE IF I LIKE WHAT HE DOES" or "I LOVE TRUMP - HE IS THE GREATEST, LIBTARDS SUCK" are equally annoying as hell. I can't stand it. My challenge is I can't decide which narrative outweighs the other. If you follow twitter, academia, etc. you'd say that trump will lose in a landslide but I have to tell you - there's a robust sentiment within this country that will ride or die with Trump, disenfranchised and at the very least he makes them feel something or empowered in a way others don't.

  • It's kind of interesting thinking about what you are gonna run on in November. Trump can't with a straight face, not that it ever stopped him, run on 'fiscal conservatism' because god knows that has all gone to shit these past few weeks (even Roosevelt didn't write stimulus checks - they at least had work programs digging fake ditches... not that it's much better, but at least it gets people into shape). So really he's left with a platform that consists of not making a huge change that could destabilize a recovering economy + however he ends up handling the crisis and aftermath + absolutely shredding Biden on stage at a debate which will happen.

  • As far as Biden goes - he can run on this idea that he is a stable, cool hand who will restore normalcy to the presidency, who will act 'presidential' and be a good role model for our children or whatever. Maybe throw in a dash of 'I'll carry Obama's water a little longer' and offer up that opportunity to bring a female VP. And that might well be enough since so many people hate or can't stand Trump.

  • To some extent, Biden is missing a massive opportunity during this to get airtime - engage with people - and come out strong in defense or support of various governors. Seeing him engaged, active, working to help small businesses or laid of workers or something, anything would be helpful. I think this election reminds me of Obama's second term and Bush's second term - the burden is on the challenger to make an overwhelmingly strong case to make a change, and both parties picked absolutely uninspired candidates to run. Thus - it's not Covid, It's just him.

  • My last random and assorted thought is that the state of discourse in this country is absolutely pathetic. It's dogmatic. Draining. Sad. We seem to have found ourselves without a 'great challenge' (like a war) or grand purpose (Great society, manifest destiny, industrialization) which leaves us in a place where the headlines are $25 million for a dumb building in NYC or Trump yelled at a reporter who asked a stupid fucking question or Trump's a racist because or Pelosi is ugly - I don't have any answers, I really wish I did, but it's very frustrating to have this extreme polarization turning facts into fiction, fiction into facts and little in the way of constructive, open dialogue on our wants, needs and challenges as a society.

I'm done now. Not sure if any of that makes sense - but I will say November seems so trivial, and so far away at this point. It's crazy.

Apr 22, 2020 - 6:04pm

Curious, how did you think Trump performed in the debates against Hillary? If those are his performances in 2020 I'm struggling to see how you could think he will decisively beat Biden in a debate.

Apr 22, 2020 - 8:08pm

aldous flux:

Curious, how did you think Trump performed in the debates against Hillary? If those are his performances in 2020 I'm struggling to see how you could think he will decisively beat Biden in a debate.

Assuming there will be a debate at all is an interesting assumption given COVID-19 and Trump's approach to politics.

Commercial Real Estate Developer

Apr 23, 2020 - 8:59am

Short version of the below - Trump doesn't really debate, he attacks the other person's weaknesses, bullies them aggressively and tries to fire up his base more than anything with talking points - to throw them off their game, make mistakes and make them look weak. When it works - it really works. When it doesn't - it really, really doesn't. He's not trying to win you over - he's trying to win 100% of who he has to get them to turn out. I don't think Biden has the capacity Hillary did to weather it - do you?

Trump did exactly what he did to the entire republican field - he made them look small on the stage. He overpowered them. Standard bullying tactics up there - putting people in uncomfortable positions where they are reacting, getting angry and unable to articulate themselves in a meaningful way. Then he doubled down consistently on the same five talking points, with words that 'resonated' with his base and the issues at that time. Hillary's base watched that - laughed at the notion that anyone could possibly vote for such a clown - and lost the election.

He won't beat any candidate in a substantive, academic debate - which i'm assuming is your criteria - where they stand up there and discuss the issues of the country, articulate their platforms, vision, etc. He's gonna turn it into a street fight - which Biden 5 years ago might have had a chance. I'm not convinced he can quickly articulate himself when Trump is brow beating him over whatever the topic du jour is - interrupting him, chiding him, mocking his perceived mental state.

That, to me, is the marvel of the Trump campaign machine - It's a robust marketing effort, doubling down aggressively on whatever 'resonates' with his base - aggressively attacking the weakest points of whomever he is up against - and jettisoning issues, topics or people that aren't working out quickly. It's not worried about feelings, outcomes or even the issues at hand - just whatever is working and can win.

Apr 22, 2020 - 2:50pm

I think that COVID has diminished Biden's chances of becoming the POTUS because the virus has greatly increased the probability of Trump being reelected. The POTUS is literally on every major network every day for about 90 minutes. The daily updates are a dream come true for the POTUS, because he is getting so much free advertising.
Apr 22, 2020 - 2:54pm

The question of course is - Is it good advertising?

Do his rambling, nonsensical answers help him with anyone who doesn't own a MAGA hat? Do his rants against reporters?

His approval ratings for handling the virus response are dog shit.

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Apr 22, 2020 - 3:07pm


Do his rambling, nonsensical answers help him with anyone who doesn't own a MAGA hat? Do his rants against reporters?

His ramblings during the updates are no different from his ramblings in general. If you do not own a MAGA hat, you are probably not going to vote for him anyway. If you do own a MAGA hat, you might be more enthusiastic to vote. The daily updates are similar to a campaign rally, which are only used to get your base more excited to vote.
Apr 22, 2020 - 5:01pm

I want you to be correct. But I am not so sure about his voter base dwindling. Maybe it's just remembering 2016 when it should've been an obvious loss of Trump, but it definitely wasn't.

Again, I will be extremely sad if Trump wins again. I hope he doesn't. But given the amount of COVID deniers and people who say Trump might as well be Moses parting the disease himself with biblical powers... I question the human brain a lot...

“The three most harmful addictions are heroin, carbohydrates, and a monthly salary.” - Nassim Taleb
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Apr 22, 2020 - 3:12pm

Covid-19 is the best thing to ever happen to Biden's campaign. Incumbent presidents rarely lose reelection.

Biden will be challenging Trump in the middle of a tough recession, giving him the best circumstances. Pre Covid-19, I would say that Biden's elections odds weren't great given the strong economic backdrop.

Apr 23, 2020 - 8:59am

It is certainly interesting that someone could listen to Biden and Trump and have the takeaway that Trump is in any way the coherent one.

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Apr 22, 2020 - 8:10pm

New Fox News state polls came out tonight. Some swing state highlights:


Biden 49%
Trump 41%


Biden 50%
Trump 42%

Commercial Real Estate Developer

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Apr 23, 2020 - 8:59am

If Trump wins in November 2020, me sharing polling from April 2020 will hardly be egg on my face, but you do you.

Commercial Real Estate Developer

Apr 23, 2020 - 8:59am

Can be summoned to make fun of liberals at will. 

Apr 23, 2020 - 8:59am

Tons of polls from PA and MI in the last day or so.


Biden +6 (Ipsos)
Biden +6 (Susquehanna)
Biden +7 (PPP)
Biden +8 (Fox News)


Biden + 7 (PPP)
Biden +8 (IPSOS)
Biden +8 (Fox News)

With those two states, Biden would only need to flip one other 2016 state. Again, he is leading in North Carolina and Arizona and is tied in Florida.

Commercial Real Estate Developer

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Apr 23, 2020 - 8:59am
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