Got an offer but need some help

I worked in HK for a summer and had a great time. Great social life and crushed LKF ...but at the end of the day, HK is JV. Go for NYC.

Why Asia is looked down on by the rest of the world is beyond me - when I was living in HK, people in the market were called "filthy" (failed in London, try Hong Kong) although that label should have receded by now.

Take the job - you know you enjoy the place and you can't knock client experience.

if you want to bat little league, go to Hong Kong. You won't get nearly the exposure, variety of clientele and depth of experience as you would in NYC or London.

ratul, no offence but you really have no idea.

Stick to your "great research".

Shouldn't you be worrying about your stock price rather than the merits of the hong kong market? Downgrades can be a bitch.

And trust me, Hong Kong is no NYC or London. Anyone should be able to tell you that big shooter.

Yes - Hong Kong is not New York, or London. I take it you have lived and worked in all three so you are in a position to justify your statement? I have and I can.

So estalol, you going to listen to ratul with his one year of experience in equity research (http://www.ibankingoasis.com/node/4783) or are you going with me? I've run two of the biggest investment banks and I'm one of the most important people in the financial world...

Should I make some comments on it?

I am graduating from a top university in China (although not so top in a U.S. view), and many of my classmates have gone to or will be going to HK to start their careers, in BBs like MS, LB, as well as ABN and MQ.

As far as I know, Asia is fast growing, and even Beijing is now a regional hub of Goldman Sachs. Citigroup recruits 2 bankers from my class, giving them sky-high payments. Goldman recruits so many people for its JV in Beijing. UBS Securities also opens business in Beijing. The salary is very high, and the business is expanding very rapidly.

In HK, Shanghai or Beijing, deals are coming day after night. Even a local MM in Beijing can get more than USD 1 billion deals (total value) a year, and several of its MDs joined Goldman Sachs or UBS this year.

I know a mainland Chinese who graduated from Australia (not top university like ANU), started i-banking career in a very small merchant bank in HK and became VP in Lehman, MD in Goldman, and finally the Greater China head of two BBs with in 10 years. So the opportunity in HK is really amazing.

One of my friends who is born in U.S., went to Berkeley and graduated with honors. He worked in CLSA's Taipei office and now all his dream is to work in HK, Shanghai or Beijing. Even the payment is not global, he is willing to accept. Why? He said Greater China is really amazing and one can become quite famous here in very short time, if he is familiar with Asian business.

Only for your information.

God, what an annoying way to respond.

I'll respond to what is relevant.

1. Just b/c you got stuck in Hong Kong doesn't mean you shouldn't be able to see through your own bullshit.

At the end of the day, you assess global impact. I haven't worked in New York yet I definitely respect it. You don't need to take a dump in Hell's Kitchen to realize NYC is a financial centre.

2. Your Rolls Royce argument shows YOUR ignorance. We're talking about where you can get the best experience, the volume of clientele and variety of business. It's volume, not a per basis assessment that matters. Otherwise, market cap would mean fuck all. I'm sure Monte Carlo has a tonne of Bentleys, but it doesn't make it a financial centre. Your experience is what counts. And Merrills Hong Kong is certainly different to Merrills London. How you use a bentley argument to back up your analysis is foolish. Think about the US consumer, fundamental global impact, market cap and volume of business, and you'll have your answer.

I'm sure all the MD's at Onex have bentleys - but it doesn't make it KKR now does it?

The fact that New York is getting nailed isn't the point. It's the fact that when NY does get nailed, it fucks the entire world. It's the same the other way around. When NYC cleans up, so does the rest of the world. That's why it's different exposure in Hong Kong compared to NYC. Not saying Hong Kong is shit, we all know better than that, but I'm saying clearly you'll get much better exposure to a market making market if you're in NYC compared to Hong Kong. How you deny that is beyond me and every single financial institution out there. I guess Goldmans should put their headquarters in Mumbai b/c growth in the 7-series Beemer is the highest there. Think about what you're saying b/c the chip on your shoulder is glaring.

Gosh, it is irritating the way you respond. Let’s have some readability big fella – you know how important that is in banking.

Again, I’ll respond to what is relevant, b/c the rest is you just trying to win debate points without arguing anything of merit.

1. Global impact NY has global impact, as does London. That’s subjective, but you don’t need to be a rocket scientist with empirical evidence to see that Hong Kong is neither of these places.

But if you want fact, type valu go on Bloomberg. In terms of volume traded a month ago (before the markets got fucked), NYSE and the LSE were the two largest exchanges. The Hang Seng? In a three way tie for 6th barely ahead of the South Korean Stock exchange.

2. The consumer point You really don’t understand this point, so I’ll make it clear. The US consumer is vital to global growth. To suggest that China has as much clout as the US consumer is silly. Take drugs for example, the Chinese drug market would need to double and double the year after to provide similar growth to what is expected over the next two years in the US in dollar terms. When I reference the Chinese consumer, I’m not talking about what kind of car some guys have, I’m talking about consumer behaviour and it’s effect on global growth and the market. It’s a simple point. NYC matters, Hong Kong matters, but not as much. At least for the time being.

3. The ICBC point (my favourite) Hmm, take an overheated Shanghai market, depreciation of Citi shares, liquidity issues and a quarter of the earnings of citi and voila! You have the largest bank in the world. What you fail to mention is that of the top twenty companies, 14 are based in the US or the UK. I guess P/Es of 30 and overheating don’t matter in your assessment. I bet you were a bull of priceline.com as well, weren’t you? Not many were covering that stock in ’96 either.

In NYC and London: bigger deals, bigger volume, large variety of clientele and working with more heavy hitters on more important exchanges. I’m not slagging HK, but to suggest it’s equal to NYC or London b/c of ICBC and other things is foolish.

OK, as my personal advice for estalol, I believe he should treat this as your own career decision. It is your own thing that we can only give you suggestion, not to make decision upon you.

Everyone has his or her own career path. Somebody says IBD is the best, but what if I am crazy about equity research and want to be a Equity Analyst from my bottom of heart? Somebody said Trading is better than Sales, but what if I am willing to deal with all kinds of people, rather than deal with numbers? Can you make the decision for me only because IBD has a higher salary, or Traders are considered to be greater than Salesmen?

Let me tell you some stories. I know two investment banking senior professionals, one from Bear Stearns, the other from Goldman Sachs, who went to Beijing from New York (and they are both White Americans), just because they believe China is growing and they would catch the train. The first is now a director in a fixed-income hedge fund, and the second is now the co-head of Goldman's fixed-income trading business in Beijing. Both are enjoying prestigous titles, high salaries and great lifestyle.

Can you say that they are not clever coming to Beijing from NYC? People just believe there are more opportunities here to grow up. In New York City, can you grow from a Big-4 entry level auditor to Goldman Sachs MD in 7 years? I saw examples in Hong Kong. In London, can you change your job from MM to tier-2 BB to tier-1 BB in 3 or 4 years, with salaries higher and higher (maybe 10 times higher in the end)? I saw examples in Beijing and Shanghai.

I have done an internship in a hedge fund in New York, and I must say New York is fantastic and I love it. But it does not mean we should look down upon HK or Beijing. Everyone has his own career path. Do not abandon Asian opportunities only because you look down upon it.

estalol, if you have any question about IB life in Asia you can contact me on MSN or Gtalk, try [email protected]

How can 'failed in London, try Hong Kong' = filthy... It should be FILTHK

i would say work on your modelling skills, cause those you need for sure Feda' Al-rajoudi

where you would actually prefer to live?? You only get to be young and in your 20s earning decent cash once, think about being close to family/friends, where you would like to travel to as well. Don't base your decision solely on work parameters.

Look, you are going to be an analyst. If your desire is to climb to the top of Goldman Sachs or some other BB in the US, then having the NYC analyst on your resume puts you on the best track to start climbing that ladder. But do what will make you happy. In the long run, no matter where you go you are going to have a great resume builder. You are going to make a lot of money in HK, NYC or London. So it doesn't really matter that much. The point is it is a major BB offer and you will get great experience. Go where you feel you will be happiest, because in the end you can't really go that wrong here.

hank paulson, former ceo of GS started in chicago...doesnt matter where you start, just matters how hard you work

Don't listen to that clown John Mack. That loser is still in high school. My advice is suck it up and take a risk, try to get an offer from a BB in NYC. You'll hate HK within 6 months after you move there.

awww....Seanc, are you still mad at me because I sided with Miss Ind?

Would my advice be any less relevant if I was still in high school? Of course, that would mean that I was still in diapers when I was a regular at the Graffiti Bar in Lan Kwai Fong...

Your advice is great though - "you'll hate HK within 6 months". Sure, it's not for everyone but considering the OP said in his first post "Hong Kong is quite an amazing place - all though a bit small, it's got everything you need - good food/drinks - hot Asian and Caucasian chicks..etc.."

OP

1 - get your offers in writing. they will have cut off dates on them. if your school is a real target, then your career services will have your back if they try to dick around with you.

2 - it's a risk reward situation. you'll need to decide if you want the highest possible outcome or the highest certainty of a good experience.

there have been some good points, but i see your question as this:

are the benefits of spending my first two analyst years in HK greater than spending my 3rd year in HK coming from NYC? (this assumes that you sign on for a BB with an office in HK, but if you perform you should be able to move to HK for a 3rd year.)

Let me refresh your own memory of what YOU think of people opining on things they know nothing of. http://www.ibankingoasis.com/node/5812

Keep digging - you'll get to Australia eventually.

Oh how I look forward to the day when you have to broke one of your ideas to me. If you're half as pursuasive in person as you are in writing then you'll have the ticket before the presentation is finished.

yeah, I'll broke an idea to you - JM is a complete donkface. Convincing?

And now big guy, why don't you tell me about ICBC again or the bad ass consumer sprawl of bustling beijing compared to the US consumer. It must suck to be full of noodles and oppression.

oooh...who pissed in your coffee this morning?

Or maybe it was the sudden realisation that your one year of "awesome stock picking" was actually riding the last vestiges of the bull market, and you're now going to have to work for a living?

don't worry muffin, I get my calls right while you're sitting there opining the merits of Guandong.

Wow! Them "debating champion" skills really shining through there.

Maybe you should take up on offer from one of those "top shop headhunters" and kick ass on the buyside.

haha, is that all you got? You're just quoting my words in some pathetic attempt to mock me? I mean really, if you write it in quotes, it MUST be really clever.

I bet you're one of those guys who uses airquotes and says "laser" in an attempt to be really funny and then cry yourself to sleep.

I'm sorry, what is your point here?

You wrote about something that you have no experience and limited knowledge about. Nothing wrong with that - it's your opinion and you're free to air it in a public forum. Now I have more experience and knowledge than you on the subject under discussion and I chose to correct you.

You were happy to weigh in with your superior knowledge and experience on the "senior level pay" thread in the Equity Research forum and yet, when you are sitting on the other side of the table, you can't take it and respond with insults. If you were offended by my responses then I apologize but please note that they were always responses in kind.

You strike me as a very arrogant, and somewhat angry, young man. I don't know whether you were born like this, or whether an easy passage through life and your current privileged position has made you this way. Either way, I really hope that you can learn some humility and tolerance in the future. I fully expect this advice to be ignored for now (probably combined with another insult in response) but may come in useful in years to come.

Are you kidding me? I mean, really? Did I just get psychoanalyzed on ibankingoasis? Are you Dr. Phil? Why don't you tell me more doc.

This is about Hong Kong vs. NYC. I think NYC is better than HOng Kong (shock, horror), and you don't. After debating the merits, you became frustrated and have now resorted to the 'well, i've been through it, therefore I know' response which is the most bullshit copout answer possible.

So, who's calling who arrogant? You're sitting there while I've destroyed all your points and now all you have left is to sit there and sanctimoniously look down on others in some feeble attempt to grab the 'wisdom' highground. And the ER topic is clearly different. There I was correcting someone's misinformation with fact. ER seniors can make a million a year - my boss makes that much and other seniors have also confirmed that fact. Saying hong kong is just as good as NYC is not fact, it's subject to opinion.

I mean, please, cut the shit, you don't know what you're talking about, your ICBC example was garbage, you know nothing of the chinese consumer in relation to the US one, and you don't realize how not important the Hang Seng is in comparision to the LSE and NYSE. For someone who's 'apparently' experienced all three, you know fuck all about the market. And that's very clear.

You’ve destroyed all my points? All I see is insults attempting to deflect attention away from the fact that your responses are ridiculously inadequate. If anything, it appears to me as though you are the one that is frustrated.

Where in the above thread have I said that Hong Kong is a better market than New York? I haven’t. You said “if you want to bat little league, go to Hong Kong. You won't get nearly the exposure, variety of clientele and depth of experience as you would in NYC or London.” and I disagreed. Now you want to turn the disagreement into being about whether HK is better than New York? Maybe that’s how you became a debating champion.

For some unknown reason, you think that an answer based upon experience is the most bullshit copout answer possible. Are you really saying that experience has no relevance in answering the question? In your own answer to the ER question, you cite the examples and experience of analysts senior to you – is it bullshit that you draw upon their experience?

Why was my ICBC example garbage? All I was doing was pointing out that there are large cap companies listed in Hong Kong/China – and that was pointing out a FACT. I made no comment on whether one was over-valued relative to another but you wanted to infer that and tried to counter with a simplistic analysis of historic earnings. Since we’re on the subject though (and now you are a banks analyst as well as a pharma analyst – probably the first in history), are you saying that the outlook for the two companies are the same? Do you think that Citi’s earnings are not going to be hit, given what’s been happening in the market? Are you sure that the earnings differential is going to be the same in three years time? Are you saying the two have close enough risk profiles that it is appropriate to apply the same P/E multiple?

It’s a shame if my ten years experience in investment banking has resulted in me knowing “fuck all about the market”. Fortunately, that is only the opinion of one stuck up junior equity research analyst who makes $120k. I think I’ll go with the opinions of those with a bit more experience.

"You won't get nearly the exposure, variety of clientele and depth of experience as you would in NYC or London."

My original quote.

fact : Hang Seng is 6th in valu traded, NYSE and LSE are 1st and 2nd Implication: Higher exposure in NYC and London

fact: 14 of the top 20 companies are US or UK Implication: Variety of clientele is larger b/c of market cap and you have more experience dealing with large cap companies.

Now, your points consist of

1. ICBC has a gigantic market cap
2. People drive Rolls Royce's in Hong Kong

The first has already been explained by the 14 of 20 point above and further explained by the oh you know, overheating of the Shanghai market, the 30 forward P/E and quarter of the earnings of citi. But, of course, burgeoning market cap has never led to a bust has it? I mean, 6 of the top 10 companies by market cap in 1989 were Japanese - wonder how that turned out? Considering ICBC has a P/E of 30, and Citi has one of 11, I am going to venture that the risk profiles aren't that similar - just a guess though. And the fact that you mentioned credit crunch to evening things out shows you again, have no idea what you're talking about.

With regards to your experience point. I wouldn't normally discount it, but you didn't start with that. You tried to show me examples of how Hong Kong wasn't a smaller player with your above points. After I and many other realized you were full of shit, you resorted to the 'I have 10 years of banking experience' fall-back and tried to play some sort of superior knowledge card. Ultimately you again, and this is getting old, don't know what you're talking about. But hey, you claim to have 10 years of experience on an internet forum to assert your argument - how effing clever!

ratul:

With regards to your experience point. I wouldn't normally discount it, but you didn't start with that.

ratul:

After I and many other realized you were full of shit

ratul:

“you resorted to the 'I have 10 years of banking experience' fall-back and tried to play some sort of superior knowledge card”

“But hey, you claim to have 10 years of experience on an internet forum to assert your argument - how effing clever!” And apparently not very effective against you. I’m curious whether you are being so petulant because I’m slapping you or is it because you think I’m a high school student masquerading as someone with experience?

So, your only argument, after all this, is that you , John Mack, have experience, therefore you are right? I mean holy subordinate clause batman.

That's all the evidence you're going to offer? If an MD of Lehman tells you to invest in CDO, do you just jump right in because he has 'experience'? While I do value experience as an argument, it is something that is usually necessary but by no means sufficient.

And so far, you haven't really refuted much of the evidence presented other than to conveniently ignore it.

ratul:

And so far, you haven't really refuted much of the evidence presented other than to conveniently ignore it.

It's very annoying when that happens isn't it?

haha, you present your own facts - they get obliterated, and then you forget us you told us them in the first place. Maybe I'll just be pithy all day and no one will notice!