I'm interested to know what folks think of Greenhill's franchise--particularly those with real experience. It seems several years ago, the consensus was it was still one of the more sought after spots on the Street. Now, when I look across threads, I rarely see Greenhill mentioned along with Evercore, PJT, Moelis, et al. They obviously didn't grow to the same extent post-crisis, but they are still recruiting what seem to be solid MDs from BBs. Recent deal flow has been skinny, which may be due lack of large and/or cross-border transactions in the last year, or might be they're just not winning any more. I imagine compensation has to be pretty efficient, or are they potentially having to overpay recent hires? Do you think the franchise is permanently damaged, or just going through a cyclical rough patch?
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I personally think their franchise has been pretty thoroughly damaged by their failure to win recent mandates and the growth of other competitor independent advisory firms. Within the boutique/advisory landscape: Lazard has continued to kill it, Evercore is quickly approaching Lazard's size and is absolutely killing it, Moelis continues to grow and win impressive mandates, and PJT has grow considerably since being spun off from BX. Centerview is chugging along, as is PWP in general. Even places like Jeffries have grown significantly, and Rothschild is expanding its US presence, etc.
With all that going on, Greenhill isn't doing so great right now, and I really can't see them picking up anytime soon. Think they'll die out and eventually those senior hires will be poached by the other growing banks above, or they'll return to BB firms. When that swing hits, Greenhill will be done. I give that fewer than 5 years.
Looking back over the last year or two, Greenhill is mostly missing in M&A and has landed very few significant / high-profile mandates, while its other EBs peers have continued to grow and expand. I wonder if they would be open to being acquired by another advisory firm if they continue to decline?
There were rumors some time back that Wells might potentially try and do something...though there'd be strong push back on independence. Other independent's probably wouldn't see the value of "paying twice" for the same revenue. Of course, you can never rule out foreign money--I could see some large, family office or some other type of permanent-ish capital potentially being interested.
Just look at their stock performance for an indication for how they've been doing
Greenhill isn't what it was 10 years ago, but it is still a fine M&A shop with solid bankers and good exits for analysts. You don't see them talked about as much on these forums because A) they are a lot smaller than their peers (NY analyst class of like 10-15?) and B) they haven't landed as many mega-mandates in recent years
As someone already mentioned, the independent advisory firm competitive landscape has changed. 15 years ago, EVR was a fraction of the size it was now, and Moelis, CVP, and PWP didnt even exist. If these firms are all offering somewhat the same value proposition (independent advice), it will be more difficult to win mandates as the landscape is more crowded.
Greenhill also hasn't grown their MD ranks as much as they should have post-financial crisis, while their competition did. There were several years where they could have bulked up, but didn't. They have ~70-80 MDs at the firm globally, whereas firms like Moelis/Evercore have closer to ~150-200? Although having more MDs doesn't necessarily equate to more transactions, there is a strong correlation between # of MDs and deal volume. I think Greenhill has realized they have fallen behind and have only recently started to ramp-up the MD hiring over the past couple years.
Hiring high-profile MDs/rainmakers can help a lot, but they are expensive to poach and from what I hear, GHL does not offer guaranteed compensation for MDs (while other firms do). There is also no guarantee a BB rainmaker will have success at a boutique - I remember when GHL hired Luca Ferrari (Head of GS M&A in Europe) in London, which was seen as a big deal, but he literally did nothing of note and left to BAML.
M&A advisory revenue is also volatile, and it helps to have ancillary revenue streams to support earnings and the stock price (LAZ has Asset Management, EVR has research/ISI etc) Greenhill only has advisory and one large transaction fee can materially impact the stock price. A volatile/declining stock price = impact to MD deferred compensation = retention issues
Disclaimer: M&A Associate at a competitor independent advisory firm with friends at GHL
This is a great analysis - do you think Greenhill can rebound from their recent troubles or will they continue declining until they reach a point where the firm will die off or sell themselves.
I personally think they can bounce back. I remember one time seeing PWP not doing that great for 1-2 years but now they are performing really well, punching way above their weight. It's a cyclical business and I think GHL has a strong foundation, great team of senior bankers and solid reputation for talents junior bankers on the street.
One thing to keep in mind with GHL is that they intentionally want to maintain their small size, hiring not only the best bankers but the bankers who can fit in with the tight culture of the firm the most. Regardless of the validity of this strategy, I think it is still a good destination for graduates.
Disclaimer: I'm not working at the firm but at an independent advisory competitor.
Can confirm. Their analyst class is 10
https://www.ft.com/content/4cb04318-a244-11e7-9e4f-7f5e6a7c98a2
There was a great WSJ article on Greenhill today, check it out.
Has Greenhill been doing better over the past few months? What is their reputation like in the SF office?
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In SF? Dealfow poor. Analyst exits - great. Silverlake, Goldengate, Summitt and other top shops in recent history.
How can the dealflow be poor but the exits are great? If this was Greenhill NY, then it makes sense, but some banks don't do as well in certain regions like Lazard SF.
Despite what you may hear in the news about deal flow, their analyst class year over year continues to place amazingly well. In the past, I always correlated deal flow with placement for good reasoning, yet Greenhill could be the exception here. Greenhill recruits exceptional talent that are polished and well-rounded, so these analysts tend to seriously impress headhunters and eventually in interviews.
In terms of the work-life balance, type of work, and culture during a two-year stint assuming low dealflow, would an analyst have a worse experience at Greenhill? I would think that the low dealflow would lead to a lot of failed pitches and overall culture wouldn't be too great because of the low dealflow and general decline.
Greenhill - Groups and culture? (Originally Posted: 01/19/2011)
Hi Guys,
Was wondering if anyone could comment on Greenhill, particularly on the SF office (groups, culture, etc). Did a search, but didn't find too much relevant info.
Thanks guys!
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Really small class of analysts: 1 3rd year, 1 2nd yr, and 1-2 1st yr (can't remember the exact # for 1st yr).
would you know what groups are in the SF office? i'd imagine it'd be tech, but wanted to double-check with everyone
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Generalist - about 1/3 tech 1/3 HC 1/3 other stuff.
Is there any updated info about Greenhill SF in terms of deal flow, exit opps, and pay compared to other investment banks?
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