Personal Investment/House Hacking Process
I'm preparing to start as a first-year trader at a Chicago prop shop later this year. I'm currently brainstorming some ways to put my disposable income to work in investments, and I'm particularly interested in exploring the real-estate space, partially for curiosity and partially for diversification.
I have some basic experience of how to formulate investment theses for other asset classes like equities, rates, etc. but I have no background in real estate. I'd be interested in hearing thoughts from WSO professionals on the following broad questions:
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Any recommendations for readings that may be helpful in providing general background/philosophy on the evaluation process? I understand resources may not be up to date but I'm picturing something on real-estate similar to Margin of Safety, Moyer's Distressed Debt, McKinsey Valuation etc..
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How do you tend to evaluate markets on a macro level? For example, in looking at metropolitan areas, do you think about macro trends like population growth, demographic shifts, infrastructure, local governance etc.?
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How do you try to evaluate particular deals at a micro level? What is the key points of the analysis/diligence process that you personally like to go through?
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Any thoughts on the Chicago market? Ideally I'd like to take some of the stuff I learn about the above and apply it for my own situation but I also wouldn't mind hearing opinions on this from others.
I understand that these are pretty broad questions but I'd appreciate thoughts on any of the above.
RECESSION INDICATOR
Find unsophisticated owners to buy from
Anytime you can buy something for
Chicago is a tough place to investment due to RE taxes and with an upcoming reassessment next year.
In cook county atleast
Go buy Section 8 properties in Englewood. 20% annual returns if you don't get killed collecting rent or have your property destroyed.
When comparing Chicago to other markets outside Illinois, be cognizant of the fact that Illinois/Chicago has fiscal overhang and a high likelihood of raising property taxes to pay for it. Detroit tried to make it work with income/business tax hikes, and this failed because people just moved out. So today's fiscally stretched cities like Chicago will want to try something new and that's probably property taxes because you can't move your property like you can move your business or job.
That doesn't mean don't invest in Chicago. I think the prices are great if you ignore the fiscal overhang . . much lower than other top-tier cities. Once you account for the overhang, prices might still be decent or maybe not. I don't have a granular enough view on it to know for sure. Just something to be aware of.
Thanks for the response. I know Chicago/Cook County definitely has some budget issues which is why I mentioned local governance in the OP. Your point on the fiscal overhang makes a lot of sense and is definitely worth looking at. Thanks again!
Can't speak on Chicago at all but I would certainly DD on potential tax implications others have mentioned.
TLDR: The challenge with house hacking is the buy. You are often competing with more seasoned investors with better financing and it is difficult to find a property and location that 1) you are willing to live in 2) can be financed through FHA 3) performs. Properties that meet these criteria often go quick. Once you buy it mostly a matter of having the reserves to weather any expenditures, vacancies, or changes to the market and then successfully managing the tenants. This can be challenging for someone with little experience as a landlord and is further complicated by the dynamic of living next door to said tenants. Strong lease agreements are mandatory and a good balance of firm but friendly people skills are very helpful.
MACRO: Your thoughts are valid and worth researching. An FHA loan can only finance max 4 units. This means that for appraisal purposes valuation is conducted via comparable property sale analysis rather than the income approach typical of commercial or multifamily assets of 5 units or more. Analyze the market via online platforms and research comparable sales. Get a broker to help you. Make sure it is someone with relevant experience as it is a niche market with somewhat blurry lines between an investor's desired cap rate and an appraised value that can be supported by comparable sales. This requires a broker well versed in investment analysis who still has highly local market knowledge of smaller assets. Your average residential broker may not have the skill set (most don't but a few will) while an established multifamily broker may not have time or interest for a smaller deal though one will likely will be very willing to help if you are persistent in your search and target the right brokers. A good broker with a network may be able to source a property off market. Whether on or off market, it is vital to demonstrate that you are competent and capable by being well-versed on both the market and the asset and by having your financing lined up and ready to go. The right broker will be glad to help but (on a smaller deals especially) will have little patience for someone wasting their time. If the right broker likes and respects you, then you have an advantage and a resource that can prove extremely valuable in both the short and long-term.
MICRO: Thorough physical DD and simple cash flow analysis. Whatever your projected expenses are, add a bit. On the flip side, take a little off your projected income. Ideally, the income producing units can cash flow or come close to covering total expenses while you occupy one of the units for 2 years per FHA requirements (may only be 1 year but I'm certain its not more than 2). After required period you can move out and begin collecting rent on that unit for additional income. FHA imposes higher requirements on the condition of the property which can make your offer less attractive than a competing offer. People get caught up on the required mortgage insurance on FHA loans but if you don't have the down payment it is simply a cost of doing business and it is still a great opportunity for a less capitalized investor to purchase income producing property where they otherwise wouldn't be able.
BOTTOM LINE: Reserves are paramount. Substantial capital should be available to address acquisition financing requirements on your own dollar (FHA especially) as well as throughout ownership as there will almost certainly be unexpected expenses that will come up. Be mindful of timing. We are late in the cycle. If you find the right deal, buy it. It is impossible to time the market....that said, reserves will be even more important if your valuation takes a hit and you are forced to weather the storm. Risk should be minimized through thorough DD, but even bad acquisitions (while painful) can prove profitable in the long run if you have the reserves to correct. If you over extend and get caught with your neck out, you can lose it all overnight.
Thanks so much for the detailed response. I definitely have a better idea of what to be looking for now and what to be researching through the concepts you've mentioned.
A few perhaps basic questions for my understanding:
You mention that an FHA loan is only allowed for financing comps. What is the reason that income-based valuations don't really apply here? Is it noise in occupancy rates or something?
It seems that the advantage of FHA loans is that the required down payment can be significantly lower vs. conventional loans, but at the cost of potentially higher rates. If I'm able to secure capital for a larger down payment (15%+ instead of 5%) is it just better to look at conventional loans, or are there other factors I'm missing here?
Loosely, is there any correlation between # of units and cap rates? I understand this is a broad question but I'm just trying to build some general intuition and perhaps lower my potential search space.
4 units or less is considered single family for financing purposes. FHA or conventional products in this space use comparable sales because it is the required method for single family property. This is why it gets blurry, you have loan products that use single family valuation but investors targeting returns based on income. The market is further complicated by a higher population of smaller and less sophisticated owners and investors. This can create opportunities or it can cause problems, understanding both valuations can help identify which is which.
That is the only advantage. If you have funds for a larger down payment there are better products. If you have 20-25% to put down you can simply purchase an investment property with no requirement of owner occupancy. You could still "house-hack" if you want but you don't have to and the only value of living at the asset would be to save the difference between your current living expenses and the potential income of the unit. IMO that number would have to be pretty significant to make it worth the hassle/challenge of being a landlord to complete strangers that you share a roof with. And if you have that much capital to work with you could be better off targeting assets of 5 units or more to take advantage of the income approach. It could even be worth it to save a few years and go straight to that. Depends on your goals and capabilities.
Not really that I am aware of. Cap rate factors total net income. As the quality and performance of the asset increase, the market cap rate decreases because an investor will pay a higher price for a more stable asset (less risk). If you are referring to your return as an investor than of course you might increase efficiency by having more units but this requires capital and proper management. On 2-4 units it is pretty easy to manage yourself...as unit count increases more time is required and most are better served by outsourcing.
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