Active Multifamily Buyers 2026

Curious if anyone has heard a compelling investment thesis from groups that are actually buying right now. Feels like most acquisitions guys are just pretending to be busy and mostly complaining (myself included).

I’ve been in multifamily since the GFC, so I feel like I should have better answers, but I genuinely don’t know how to describe this market. Dislocated? Stagnant? Existential? Transaction volume is miniscule, fundraising seems brutal, and even the “good” markets have regulatory risk or supply problems holding them back. A friend at a mega shop told me their current fundraise may end up at half the size of the predecessor due to underwhelmed allocators.

Meanwhile, the multifamily value proposition feels broken. We’re living through inflation, yet rent growth is somehow the one thing that didn’t get the memo. NOI growth is anemic, core feels overpriced, core plus feels stagnant, value-add feels like the loser in a game of hot potato. I recently asked a top Sun Belt broker if a single deal he’d sold in the last three years would fetch a higher price today: “probably not.”

So how exactly are deals supposed to pencil? That same broker is still modeling 3% rent growth in their OMs and guiding to negative leverage. I doubt even half of their deals are trading and most that do are below guidance.

It seems like owners of decent assets can extend and pretend forever. What’s the catalyst that changes that?

Maybe I’m just venting. Feeling restless I’m looking at other opportunities, but it seems like the only jobs right now are asset management roles that look more like portfolio janitors. Almost no open acquisition roles with any credible groups - hearing of more firing than hiring.

I still see deals getting announced, though, so groups must be underwriting something other than vibes. Who’s actually leaning in while everyone else is fearful? Is anyone making good buys right now with fresh equity or is it all just 1031s and recycled capital making the market?