Random thoughts here...
The Fed is almost sounding like Mr. Greenspan back during the rise of tech and the Nasdaq. His "irrational exuberance" comments regarding the .com boom led him to put a pin in the proverbial bubble. The difference now is irrational exuberance across all major stock indices (maybe???).
Throw in a Fed that's probably hostile to Trump, and well, you're going to see rate hikes O'Plenty.
Feb 2000 the Nasdaq, hold your breath, was at a whopping 6700. All it took to completely destroy this Index and go from 4.5% GDP growth to 1% growth in 18mo was a 1.5% increase. At that was from 4.75 to maybe 6.25%. 1.5% doesn't matter a as much when you're in the 4's and 5's versus, say a jump from 1% to 2.5%.
Next, if stocks slide at some point over the next 18mo (seems like they will, right?)and money flows into treasuries, what will happen to long term rates if on one hand Fed rates are going up but at the same time cash is flying into Treasuries?
Next, at what point does the Fed begin to dispose of its $4trillion in treasuries? What impact will this have?
Seems like unprecedented times moving forward. I have no idea how all this will play out. Man, the Fed has a hold on everything it seems.