Where do you think our country will be in 2050? 2100?

Inspired by another post on here where I saw someone talking about where they thought the country would be. Where do you guys think it will be. Will it have collapsed? Anarchy? Can we try to not get political and describe it without direct politics involved.

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Comments (121)

Sep 28, 2021 - 1:14pm

Generally I think things will keep getting better.  By 2050 we will have a completely new government.  AKA a lot of the politicians will be out of office simply due to age. Over half of the senate is over the age of 60 and over half of the house is over the age of 50.   I think the only thing that could really cause a collapse is if the US defaulted, but if that happens I think the world is way more deep shit.  

Age article: https://fiscalnote.com/blog/how-old-is-the-117th-congress

Sep 29, 2021 - 12:49am

If republicans cling to power, yeah.  One party believes in democracy in the US, can you guess which one?  

I know most of you guys are right wing but you don't really think Trump won did you?  Are you not concerned about the fact that many politicians and voters believe this lie?

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Sep 28, 2021 - 5:06pm

Have to go read Being Mortal by Atul Gawande.  I am planning on finishing it this week and writing a post about it later this week. It is easily one of the best books I have ever read and is all about mortality and Geriatric Care.  Would recommend to anyone.  

Long story short.  We may be able to extend life expectancy, but that doesn't stop the aging process.  AKA I don't think you will be able to campaign a corpse (Insert what ever joke about whatever old white guy in office here), but we more or less have not found a way to stop the loss of cognitive function.  

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Sep 28, 2021 - 5:08pm

I think we will take one of two tracks - western europe (think France) or Japan. our demographic issues won't be solved without immigration and so either we let people in or we become totally insular like japan (probably difficult with the southern border), but the demographic issues will remain. I think the implications of this are the same however - slower growth on the whole. I think we'll either go to a place where like the japanese we work ourselves to the bone but for no productivity just to kill time, or go the way of europeans and have a 4 day work week for 10 months of the year and have better quality of life in exchange for less growth. by 2050 the massive wealth transfer of the baby boomers will have been mostly completed and the largest (or 2nd largest, I forget) generation today (millenials) will be entering retirement and perhaps creating a massive gap in jobs or a massive decrease in labor force participation due to population growth (lack thereof) and productivity gains.

I also believe that by 2100, we will go to war with China and the alliances will be EUR/USA/AUS/Saudi (unfortunately) versus China/Russia/Turkey/E Europe sans Ukraine & Poland/Iran. I do not think it will have as many ground troops or physical fronts as WW1/WW2 but I do think humanity inevitably goes to armed conflict every once in a while and our time will be no different. as for the cause? be it Taiwan, be it North Korea, whatever, I think their only saving grace to avoid is if their own demographic issues and economic troubles currently being swept under the rug drain resources to the point where they lose some of their aggression, but I put that at a low probability given their desire for domination of the south china sea and more.

I think in general, we will have a smaller population in % of the global population with places like brazil, nigeria, india, and vietnam being the big growers (plus middle east if it calms down), more productivity, less GDP growth but still strong tech sector which should save us from a Nikkei like experience. on the political front, I see us going to single party power or the way of UK parliament where people have gotten so fed up with the 2 party system that it totally fragments and we go to coalition forming. I think status quo or the latter are more likely than single party, our founders never said anything about # of parties, only their distrust of central authority. I also believe that we will have become a welfare state but one that you can still advance in. in other words, entrepreneur friendly but 40-70% combined tax rates to pay off all of our debt/fund medicare/medicaid bills for people that are alive but didn't do robust financial planning.

so in short, I don't think America collapses, but I think our influence decreases as we get to a critical mass. I think our entrepreneurial spirit, capitalistic foundations, and geographical advantages keep us from getting conquered or becoming completely uninhabitable due to climate change like the Maldives (manmade or not or some combination, it'll have some effect, hard to guess what though), and I think we'll also be older and slower growing

not mentioned in your OP was the "so what?" I always ask "so what?" to these philosophical questions, and my response is "so nothing." if regulations chill out, I could see myself splitting time between europe and US (for lifestyle), but I don't really want to live full time anywhere else and I have a hard time envisioning that changing within my lifetime or the lifetime of my yet-unborn children. maybe in 300 years America won't be the place to be, but in 80? hard to say that an entire union would change that quickly from the top of the mountain to a place where lifelong Americans go "fuck this shit I'm out!"

Sep 29, 2021 - 3:50pm

Saber rattling with Taiwan is something China's done forever.  Personally I think Xi is an idiot but I don't think he's that retarded.  Hopefully I'm correct about this

Sep 30, 2021 - 2:42pm

Recently watched some interesting tidbits about how no one in China, Tiwan, or the US diplomatic core actually thinks China will invade Tiwan.   Mostly that the sabre rattling by China is done to drum up support at home.  The biggest group of people who freak out about Tiwan when China does this are Americans who listen to the news ramble on about it.   Forcibly Anexing Tiwan isn't really a good idea for China to do considering their percarious food situation.  Also, the Chinese are already in an inescapeable population decline that will radically destabilize their economy and social structure.

Sep 28, 2021 - 5:51pm

I know you said you didn't want to mention politics, but one of the things I think is really important is to change the overall electoral system that has led to a 2 party system. It's inconceivable to me, that in a country this diverse, that there are only 2 real parties for which you can vote, and it always ends up being a "lesser of 2 evils" kind of thing. Studies have shown how the average legislator, especially Congressman, has become more polarized. At a minimum I think we need to figure out a better way around that, and hopefully it's done by 2100.

Example political study source (National Conference of State Legislatures) : https://www.ncsl.org/Portals/1/Documents/About_State_Legislatures/Parti…

Quant (ˈkwänt) n: An expert, someone who knows more and more about less and less until they know everything about nothing.

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Sep 29, 2021 - 12:47am

Prediction:

This thread is gonna have at least one Nazi dogwhistling about how we are gonna be the next Brazil (due to interracial relations and what not) and at least one far right libertarian jerking off to collapse fantasies.

Fuck the alt right!

Sep 29, 2021 - 11:18am

that doesn't answer the question. where do you think the country will be in 2050/2100? not "what comments do you expect from people whom you disagree with politically?"

I agree, fuck the alt right, fuck the far right, fuck the far left, fuck anybody who's not humble enough in their beliefs to realize that they may be incorrect, and mostly, fuck anybody whose beliefs don't follow a logical train of thought that can be disproven (e.g. if a statement cannot be disproven, it's most certainly bullshit)

Sep 29, 2021 - 11:28am

I was proven right, the failed corporate lawyer T30 graduate is now calling Latinos genetic sewage. 

Long term I am optimistic that the US will overcome its troubles, it may not be as powerful on the world stage due to the fact that China, India, etc. have a much larger population but I think domestically it will be fine

Sep 29, 2021 - 9:16am

Due to dysgenic fertility and mass importation of helots, the average "American" IQ will approach 85 with a high share of functionally retarded "citizens."  Despite their retardation, they will be organized enough to hunt down, capture, and enslave intelligent "natives" to perform tasks such as civil engineering, nuclear physics at the reactor, and rudimentary medicine.  With the competent:retarded ratio, there won't be enough ammunition for the competent to clean house. 
 

Because almost everyone is retarded, inflamed from PUFA consumption, and addicted to virtual reality snuff porn, they will believe the state-imposed curriculum and media apparatus that say 2021 was a veritable shit hole, where there was a George Floyd incident every day and 13 year old boys weren't taught proper fellatio technique in home room.

It will be a pastiche of Planet of the Apes, Idiocracy, Elysium, and 120 Days of Sodom  

Sep 29, 2021 - 10:26am

Drumpfy

Oh, here's the corporate lawyer turned landscaper with a garbage take as usual

I did not say I was a landscaper or in any blue collar, physical function. Rather, I said college isn't for everyone, especially people without the cognitive ability and drive to enter an elite program. Economically, they are often better off pursuing another path, including ¡landscaping!, at age 18 with clear and actionable goals. All of them will be smarter than the aforementioned retards defining 2100 America. 

Sep 29, 2021 - 12:21pm

Quant (ˈkwänt) n: An expert, someone who knows more and more about less and less until they know everything about nothing.

  • 1
Sep 29, 2021 - 5:05pm

Welcome to Costco, I love you.

"Some things are believed because they are demonstrably true. But many other things are believed simply because they have been asserted repeatedly—and repetition has been accepted as a substitute for evidence." - Thomas Sowell
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Sep 29, 2021 - 12:09pm

Socialism...laugh now if you want, you'll be crying later if we stay on the track we're on. Oh it's only a small tax boost! It's only for the rich! Oh we just have to show our papers at a restaurant. Oh these businesses just need to close for a few weeks to stop the spread! etc etc...open your fucking eyes, everyone.

Sep 29, 2021 - 5:22pm

UBI possibly 

"If you always put limits on everything you do, physical or anything else, it will spread into your work and into your life. There are no limits. There are only plateaus, and you must not stay there, you must go beyond them." - Bruce Lee

Sep 29, 2021 - 5:40pm

I tend to have a pretty pessimistic outlook. Between the increasing crime, wealth inequality, mental illness, obesity, etc I see too many negative trends to overcome in the long term. So while we'll still have a subset of visionaries and entrepreneurs I don't think you can sustain a country of this size when 90%+ of the population is either ready to snap or has given up, and plugging the gap with opiates, debt, Netflix, and processed food will only get you so far. I don't think we'll see a societal collapse by 2050 but I think there will be a major shift by 2100 with the US becoming divided into smaller countries and losing its status as a world power, or just going the way of Brazil and turning into a bloated mess with a small insulated elite surrounded by miles of slums with holographic ads blaring in your face at every turn (just like all the sci-fi movies portray).  

Sep 29, 2021 - 6:48pm

I think these comment are too negative. In the 70s people thought America was on a decline and the Soviet Union was on the rise. Look where we are now. We probably won't be the sole superpower, but we'll still be fine. I'm confident in the American people to vote for the right leaders, and I'm confident in our leaders and our great enterprising spirit to keep our country booming for decades to come.

Sep 30, 2021 - 1:54pm

I'd like to be optimistic too. It'll take a lot of work to get there, but I'd like to believe that people would like what's best for the country. Unfortunately, if all sides believe that despite doing polar opposite things, the answer is probably somewhere in the middle, and neither side wants to acknowledge that.

Quant (ˈkwänt) n: An expert, someone who knows more and more about less and less until they know everything about nothing.

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  • Prospect in RE - Comm
Sep 29, 2021 - 8:05pm

drumpfy HAS to be either a troll, a social experiment, a retard, or all three I swear to god ive never seen him say anything remotely intelligent

Sep 30, 2021 - 10:18am

Like the decline and fall of the Roman Empire, it will be a continuation of America's gradual decline (started probably in late 90s / mid 2000s depending on how you measure). Potentially might collapse sooner with war, but without war we could continue this decline for a few centuries 

Sep 30, 2021 - 1:09pm

Too far away to call.

Though it's certainly hilarious seeing demented liberals screeching about imminent fascist takeover if Republicans go in power, when the Democrats have weaponized the military and intelligence against conservatives, to the point that you get purged from ranks simply for attending a rally or denouncing proto-Marxist workshops.

This + the collusion of large corporation and government liberals to enforce a strict ideological agenda and censor dissent is actually more fascist than anything Mussolini ever achieved. Combine it with racially motivated punishment via economic policies and you are now at the level of uncle Adolf. Thus the only desiderable outcomes are a Nurenberg trial equivalent against liberals or the country's collapse.

Never discuss with idiots, first they drag you at their level, then they beat you with experience.

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Sep 30, 2021 - 1:12pm

and I forgot the covid passports. Holy fucking nightmare.

Never discuss with idiots, first they drag you at their level, then they beat you with experience.

Sep 30, 2021 - 2:37pm

Someone bump this thread in 2050

"If you always put limits on everything you do, physical or anything else, it will spread into your work and into your life. There are no limits. There are only plateaus, and you must not stay there, you must go beyond them." - Bruce Lee

  • 1
Sep 30, 2021 - 6:45pm

Geography = destiny. The United States has by far the best geographical positioning in the world. Two coasts, two giant, friendly, stable neighbors. Giant area of arable land. Large amount of freshwater. Massive bank of high end and low end human resource capital. It's important to remain United States despite our political differences. We are the billion dollar trust fund kids of the world. 

Be excellent to each other, and party on, dudes.
  • 5
Sep 30, 2021 - 6:48pm

To be clear, I think not only does our influence not decline, but it grows in power. Other countries have to deal with massive environmental, political, demographic, and geographical problems that although the USA shares, are not nearly as intense here as anywhere else. Happy to get super granular about China, for example, and that's our "closest" rival. Russia? EU? Africa? SA? Forget about it. We have no challengers. Nobody even close.

Be excellent to each other, and party on, dudes.
  • 3
  • Intern in IB - Cov
Sep 30, 2021 - 9:30pm

Climate change could actually benefit Russia in the long run as much more of its land would become arable and they could also have more ports that are not frozen in the winter. Plus, other than Saint Petersburg and Vladivostok, its major cities are not coastal and therefore face no threat for rising sea levels. 

This isn't to say they will be an equal to the US, but I wouldn't discount it *ever* being a possibility, especially if they ever more toward a more democratic government. I've taken a few classes on Russia, and find them to be an interesting topic. Even if these things did go right for them, they still have to contend with a degree of social change if they ever hope to do attract talent from the likes of the United States or Western Europe as expats. Russia as a whole is still a decent bit more overtly socially conservative such as a constitutional ban on same-sex marriage or xenophobia. Some researchers say Russians and Russia are becoming more xenophobic and some say they are becoming less, so it's really hard for me to say how this will change in this regard. 

Russia also seriously struggles with crony capitalism and offshore foreign accounts. A NBER report from 2017 reported that offshore wealth held by affluent Russians is equal to about 75% of national income. They even claimed that this offshore wealth is actually equal to the total wealth of all Russians that is actually held in Russia. 

The thing is, this kind of corruption is insanely hard to root out, especially because of how popular Putin is. The 20th century in Russia was just one bloody conflict after another with no real, long lasting prosperity for all but a select few. The collapse of the Soviet Union threw Russia into a horrible economic state, but Putin was able to stabilize the country and increase the standard of living incredibly for most Russians. So most Russians are more or less content with the way things are and therefore don't want any sort of radical change to their government as many fear it would go wrong and their standard of living could fall, which, given Russia's history, is a totally valid fear. 

One big shortcoming of Putin is that he hasn't done nearly enough as he should have to try to diversify the Russian economy. It's still very heavily based on the oil & gas industry, and it doesn't seem like it will move away from that in the near term. 

Really excited to see what the future hold for Russia. They certainly have the potential to become a much more economically powerful and influential country, but we'll see how they handle that. They are certainly not heading in the right direction; obviously the people who have the power to create real change are the ones who benefit from the current system the most. 

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Oct 4, 2021 - 6:09pm

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"If you always put limits on everything you do, physical or anything else, it will spread into your work and into your life. There are no limits. There are only plateaus, and you must not stay there, you must go beyond them." - Bruce Lee

Oct 1, 2021 - 5:55pm

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Few players recall big pots they have won, strange as it seems, but every player can remember with remarkable accuracy the outstanding tough beats of his career.
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